Model Output Discussion - Into February

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Just checked out one of my favoured sites 16 day, showing cold returning 6th Feb, easterly by 9th Feb with snow from 10th. Interesting.

 

 

 

 

That's why I'm watching the mean on the 5/6, which is slowly dropping, any further is to far to look for now 

[Gizzy]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's why I'm watching the mean on the 5/6, which is slowly dropping, any further is to far to look for now 

Yeah that's why I pop in here to hear the views from the posters, thanks.

[IDO]

Shows the fine margins for a brief easterly/SE'ly in just one run. At D8-9:

0Z: 06z:

D10 on 06z:

Hard to trust GFS at the best of times, but this is clearly a complex setup and the ops are switching between clusters so we shall have to wait it out.

[Ali1977]

Unbelievable cold lining up to our east. Let’s hope for more ENS support. Did the METO release their Feb outlook one day early I wonder

[nick sussex]

The GFS shows what happens if the PV doesn’t elongate and edge further nw.

You can’t sustain the high in a favourable position .

So whilst it’s true you can have an angry PV initially you need energy to disrupt under the block .

 

[Purga]

There's a serious Beast lurking to the NE - we need some luck!

Mind you, there's a decent cold chunk headed our way.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Purga

[Gowon]

A very cold and dry GFS - I'd rather mild and dry tbh

[northwestsnow]

Dew points are bitter !!

[Ali1977]

The whole of Europe looks likely to go into the freezer - apart from the U.K. on this run. A Prolonged freezer too!! 

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dew points are bitter !!

Do cold temps feel colder if the dew points are even lower?

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dew points are bitter !!

Let's hope the wind comes from the ENE rather than the ESE... A 1986 redux (cold, grey and largely snowless) is not on my wish list!

I wouldn't mind a snowy blast like 2018 though... 1987 was unnecessarily cold!

Edited January 31, 2023 by Ed Stone

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Do cold temps feel colder if the dew points are even lower?

Yep those that say to cold to snow mean basically how things will feel in this GFS 

Edited January 31, 2023 by alexisj9

[seabreeze86]

Let’s be honest if this transpired it would be hard to take especially having to see pictures of a snowy Barcelona 

[northwestsnow]

Temps becoming suppressed especially across the South.

[Nick F]

Hope the next potential cold spell isn't mostly dry like the last two, as 06z GFS suggests. 

Still much to be resolved T+120 - 144 with regards to goings on to our north, Euros quite different to GFS, former has a low diving SE over Scandi towards Baltic countries of E Europe, the latter doesn't. Then there's the troublesome lobes swinging around the TPV over Greenland trying push back any influence of  a Scandi high. Still some way to go to firm up on how this plays out.

[Snowboy111]

Fine margins. Main thing is a cold pattern is being established so lots to look forward to in the building blocks. One slightly differentiating run means nothing at this stage. 

[Battleground Snow]

A mixed bag of ensembles at 192.

There are a fair few corkers in the set. I won't post them all but I like this one 

[Rob 79812010]

31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Let's hope the wind comes from the ENE rather than the ESE... A 1986 redux (cold, grey and largely snowless) is not on my wish list!

I wouldn't mind a snowy blast like 2018 though... 1987 was unnecessarily cold!

I see why I struggle to remember 86. Little snow in NW I think

[Tony47]

Dead right about Feb 86. I lived near York then and recall the bitter cold (CET well below zero), but so little snow. The dry cold was so severe that many hedges and shrubs were 'burned' by the cold. I call it the forgotten winter because of the lack of snow for most in Britain - except for the east coast fringes.

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I see why I struggle to remember 86. Little snow in NW I think

It was extremely cold, coldest Feb since 1947 I think, was some snow in the east initially but west was mostly dry, 23 days of cold easterly winds, remember the big icicles and ponds / lakes frozen solid. 

[snowray]

06z short ens certainly showing the cooling trend in the SE starting at D6, with the potential of snow flurries turning up.

 

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

A mixed bag of ensembles at 192.

There are a fair few corkers in the set. I won't post them all but I like this one 

I know it's only an individual ensemble member, but it is crazy that an algorithm can come up with that at just over a week away.

Bitter South Easterlies over the Irish Sea I would take though!

[Troubleatmill]

28 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep those that say to cold to snow mean basically how things will feel in this GFS 

Actually think it can feel less cold with lower DPs even if the air temp is lower. Less moisture tends to feel less cold, even when it's colder on a thermometer 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Tony47 said:

Dead right about Feb 86. I lived near York then and recall the bitter cold (CET well below zero), but so little snow. The dry cold was so severe that many hedges and shrubs were 'burned' by the cold. I call it the forgotten winter because of the lack of snow for most in Britain - except for the east coast fringes.

Does that mean the green leave going brown or falling off, in which case later when I get home, I'll post a picture of my hedge in the chat thread. Think it's happened this year in the se, or at least where I am.

[johncam]

48 minutes ago, Gowon said:

A very cold and dry GFS - I'd rather mild and dry tbh

Where is it very cold ?