Model Output Discussion - Into February

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I wish it was the other way round - UKMO being great and GFS showing crud.

UKMO output has put a spanner into many a potential cold spell.

If gfs is correct your profile piccy might be up for upgrade. Absolute stonker for days 8 / 9 / 10 for streaming abd looks like it continues cold over the snowfields afterwards

[That ECM]

Fi is T96 ish. Take a trip down gfs winter wonderland or take a trip down Ukmo. Or just sit and wait? Sensible says wait but sensible is boring. Off to get some carrots for either a nose or to eat.

[Snowboy111]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

If gfs is correct your profile piccy might be up for upgrade. Absolute stonker for days 8 / 9 / 10 for streaming abd looks like it continues cold over the snowfields afterwards

No way Atlantic is busting through that cold air either. We all know how cold air is hard to shift once established 

[johnholmes]

29 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Meanwhile the GFS just plods on. -8hpa knocking on the door from the east and west 

I think you mean -8C?

[TSNWK]

Just now, Snowboy111 said:

No way Atlantic is busting through that cold air either. We all know how cold air is hard to shift once established 

Its reloading from east at day 11 whilst some dig themselves out   

[That ECM]

Just now, johnholmes said:

I think you mean -8C?

Be very interested in your thoughts John please.

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I think you mean -8C?

I would struggle to find a reason for it to mean anything else John
I’ve edited it to avoid any confusion 

Edited January 31, 2023 by seabreeze86

[johnholmes]

I was just thinking of the post I made some days ago about rapid T rises on the 30 mb pole chart. 15-25 days was what I seem to remember for cold weather to develop over the UK, SOMETIMES;  Just a thought. The 500 mb charts at the moment do show a developing ridge east of the UK, bit far south, but the last 8-14 day did give a SLIGHT slight suggestion of a nnw-nne trend. No more than 25% I would say at the moment but it is there.

[chris55]

5 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Do cold temps feel colder if the dew points are even lower?

Its essentially just dryer air.

The dew point is the stage where the air can no longer hold the moisture so it relents and the moisture gathers on solids, like dew on the grass.

In my experience cold dry air often feels less cold than more humid cold air.

Moisture conducts heat more readily than air, meaning a cold damp day feels colder than a day when the air is dry, but the temp is lower.

[Drifter]

26 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO output has put a spanner into many a potential cold spell.

I think you mean UKMO has been first to detect a cold spell isn’t going to happen.

[Ali1977]

Control at day  6

[seabreeze86]

GFS decides the first easterly wasn’t quite good enough so goes for another 

Brilliant model watching, better than looking raging westerlies whatever the eventual outcome is

[Nick F]

-15C T850s creeping into Kent on Valentine's Day ... how romantic!

[bluearmy]

The new gfs is troll central - not content with one cold pool strike, it brings a second …,,,

imagine what the pub run might do later ?  The removal of Greenland ??

[Mike Poole]

GFS FI shows that this is a setup which once established, can keep on giving, T330:

Our cold pool to the SE with -16C uppers just off Kent.  

But the big question is can it become established in the first place?  Let’s see what ECM thinks later…

[ICE COLD]

I do the purples visiting

@feb1991blizzard pipe burster

[northwestsnow]

Hate seeing glorious charts from GFS when UKMO says no..

Hope springs eternal

[Battleground Snow]

Ensembles are tanking after the 8th, at least the OP is well supported, best to remain cautious though 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[geordiekev]

Just a reminder how fallible UKMO can be with the Atlantic even at short range, before we have another 3 pages of UKMO is King posts. Tried searching the previous thread for UKMO charts to show how wrong they were but surprisingly none were posted as they showed Westerly storms throughout it's output.

What I did find was plenty of memes rubbishing the GFS picking up on our current block. It's a funny old world. Whilst there wasn't huge differences the Atlantic modelling made all the difference 

Edited January 31, 2023 by geordiekev

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS is easily the best run this winter from my perspective.
I love snow, and there is none of that in Holland in this run, but I love cold without snow just as much, as long as it gives me ice to skate on.
And GFS does that, it keeps giving, ice day after ice day.
Nearby lakes would soon look like my profile pic again.

About UKMO, it's obviously not as good, but at 168h it could still lead to something good (better than expected) later on.
I could see a new WAA push in the Atlantic, and it holds on to heights North of Norway (more than GEM) and the low heights in SE Europe.
It's a pity we don't have 192h-240h charts for UKMO.

A couple of EPS members this morning were actually similar and started building Euro/Scandi heights a bit later.

Nevertheless, GFS is preferred!

[Daniel*]

41 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I wish it was the other way round - UKMO being great and GFS showing crud.

UKMO output has put a spanner into many a potential cold spell.

I don’t agree anymore the UKMO model is not as highly regarded think after 2013 I noticed, it has received little upgrades ect, its later stage outputs are often inconsistent. There’s been times UKMO has been one dangling carrot only to back down to other models. 

[snowray]

I would happily bank this run, and there would almost certainly be a lot more snow around than this shows!

In the past I have noticed the UKMO to be rather reluctant to jump on board with extreme cold scenario's for the UK, so not that worried for now, I think it's going to be all eyes on the ECM now.

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Day 9 GEFS mean , that’s a pretty big upgrade.

 

Come on ECM

[Mucka]

Re UKMO output.

I think the caution is valid as it is just 96h that there are key differences with GFS.

Not many people would back GFS over UKMO at that range if there were genuine risk in being wrong.

That doesn't mean UKMO is right, it just means that when a top model is not showing what we want then it is sensible to be cautious of output that is showing us what we want to see.

That is true of all information.

[Mike Poole]

GEFS take on the easterly by T192 - day 8!

That’s about my location.  So if you take the dark blue (-6C) as qualifying, then it is over half of them…and some of them are bonechilling…