Model Output Discussion - Into February

[alexisj9]

 

Mean on the 5th has dropped further again in East Kent, and look how many runs are now going sub ten. Mean drops down to -5 at the min at a decentish time frame.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Interesting 0z run  from GFS and a complete switch and reversal of the pattern later in the run. One to watch to see if it holds.  

The ensembles for zonal wind reversal  were showing an increasing trend of dropping below the 0 yesterday. GFS first one to bite? 

The polar vortex looks strong but also like a volatile stretchy blob . 

[northwestsnow]

While EC isn't as " sexy " as GFS be under no illusions it is really cold ..

Certainly no great shakes 850 wise but at the surface freezing..

Edited January 31, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Captain Shortwave]

 

A continental feed for week 2 seems to be increasing in probability. That said there is little sign so far of a clean flow of polar continental air, so at the moment the trend is for conditions to turn colder, but little sign yet of something more significant.

[ANYWEATHER]

Amazing ,just a few days ago we were looking at a projected stormy spell for the uk especially the north ,now even here looks like a completely different outlook in the days ahead. Gfs lovely Scandi high at day ten ,with the makings of that less than a week away....but let's give it a few days more to verify.....

[Ladyofthestorm]

A sniff of a cold stab at winter I think. A few crucial runs coming up. 

ECM sniffing too. Ensemble's not biting yet but looks at the cooling  trend in the middle. 

It's that old GFS trick again.... Have an idea... Chuck it out and then you with it again in a closer time frame. 

Get the cold into Europe then Zonal wind reversal and then here we are. 

The strong Zonal pattern of past two weeks hasn't really been that string considering what's being fired out of Canada and Greenland. It's prone and volatile.  I was expecting storms here in the Western Isles, but it's been unsettled , cool but not too bad. 

 

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

A sniff of a cold stab at winter I think. A few crucial runs coming up. 

ECM sniffing too. Ensemble's not biting yet but looks at the cooling  trend in the middle. 

It's that old GFS trick again.... Have an idea... Chuck it out and then you with it again in a closer time frame. 

Get the cold into Europe then Zonal wind reversal and then here we are. 

The strong Zonal pattern of past two weeks hasn't really been that string considering what's being fired out of Canada and Greenland. It's prone and volatile.  I was expecting storms here in the Western Isles, but it's been unsettled , cool but not too bad. 

 

Indeed Lady of the storm. I raised the possibility of the gfs running with the Scandi high again after it showed it the then dropped it a few days back.  It classic gfs territory.

We await to see what happens of course. But after so many posts writing off February before it had even started  (never a smart move).

We now at least seem to have another chase on our hands. We're it only gfs showing it then I would be doubtful but we have cross model agreement on the route to get there.  So that gives us a bit more to go on.

[nick sussex]

There are still early differences between the models .

The GFS has a trigger shortwave and at the same time takes that low south Greenland ne and this becomes absorbed .

You can see that here . 

Day 4 low pressure is heading ne , shortwave energy is about to be ejected se.

Day 5 that low has become absorbed , the trigger shortwave is ejected se.

The ECM handles this differently .

Day 4 you can see that low pressure south Greenland , this is moving east .

Day 5 that low has moved east .

We don’t want a middle ground solution here .

So either an early trigger shortwave or the low clearing east with decent clearance between that and the upstream troughing .

[Panayiotis]

Doesn’t the PV ramp up before a SSW? I wonder if that’s what’s going on now…I can remember it being said a few years ago, can anyone help with the topic?

[matt44myst]

The GFS 0z run is a thing of absolute beauty. I’d give my right arm for that to verify as shown out to +384.

[nick sussex]

The GFS and GEM are in one camp v the ECM, UKMO and ICON regarding my previous post .

The less said about the JMA the better as it’s poor !

I think I speak for the vast majority of coldies here and so what  we’re looking for now is cold and snow and not just surface cold as we’re not in early winter where we have lots of time to play with .

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS and GEM are in one camp v the ECM, UKMO and ICON regarding my previous post .

The less said about the JMA the better as it’s poor !

I think I speak for the vast majority of coldies here and so what  we’re looking for now is cold and snow and not just surface cold as we’re not in early winter where we have lots of time to play with .

 

Ar least we have a bit of interest,Nick.

I'd thrown the towel in already ..

Surface cold beats wind and rain and I'd resigned myself to plenty of that !! 

[Stuie]

Feb 6th still looks like the FI point. 

Something I have noticed is the change in wind direction at the point of the 6th, potential to pull in a NE / E flow.

 

[NewEra21]

Not gonna lie I'd kinda lost interest in the outlook and models over the past few weeks, but this mornings GFS run has certainly spiked the interest.

Let's hope it's onto something and we all get a snow fix, hell even surface cold would be nice after the recent dire looking output heading into February.

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, Rob 79812010 said:

The 2018 BFTE was pretty amazing though! Only one in my lifetime was 87! Even colder than Feb 63!!!

I presume youre talking locally?... we have had many cold Easterlies, before 2018 there was 2013 which the CET was colder. In both 1985 and 1986 we had significant cold Easterlies, and we did in 1969... thats just off the top of my head..

Well the NOAA anomaly charts have shifted now in favour of a substantial block to our East which now touches Scandinavia. So some sort of cold spell is certainly on the table, but id like to see further charts being consistent just yet. Id have thought just a dry, raw, grey, pattern off the Continent would be most likely. Like the reliance on SSWs, the notion that Easterlies = snow is far from sound.
So these charts are going in the right direction for cold, but is far from certain. As for a late SSW? ..... do they deliver?...

[Uncertainty]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Strat is burning, charts are turning,

Merry Easter every one,

we're gonna have a party tonight.

Yes if today’s charts are on it the seasonals and indeed the subseasonals from just yesterday are done for.

This scandi pattern will  be a huge factor in determining the course of the next 12 weeks.

You have to say that it’s now the favoured evolution but what form will it take? ECM would be dry possibly chilly but it’s still lots of steps (via 3 or 4 different anti cyclonic wave breaks) to get a snowy easterly vis the gfs. The ensembles favour the former but given the weak strat and mjo analogues you can’t rule it out. 
 

Can see a cold caveat appearing in the Exeter outlook this afternoon. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

I presume youre talking locally?... we have had many cold Easterlies, before 2018 there was 2013 which the CET was colder. In both 1985 and 1986 we had significant cold Easterlies, and we did in 1969... thats just off the top of my head..

Well the NOAA anomaly charts have shifted now in favour of a substantial block to our East which now touches Scandinavia. So some sort of cold spell is certainly on the table, but id like to see further charts being consistent just yet. Id have thought just a dry, raw, grey, pattern off the Continent would be most likely. Like the reliance on SSWs, the notion that Easterlies = snow is far from sound.
So these charts are going in the right direction for cold, but is far from certain. As for a late SSW? ..... do they deliver?...

Hoping we avoid Atlantic wind and rain mushy for me anything else is a bonus .

 

[heath]

Looking back the GFS 12z of 25 January was the first to show this amplification, but for 5th February, not the 6th. Just one day different. No one thought it credible, and it still may not be.

but the odds have changed substantially.

[nick sussex]

The GFS refusing to backdown on its trigger shortwave .

These early differences aren’t great because we don’t want a middle ground solution . We want a clear win either way .

Theres no happy meeting halfway solution here for coldies .

 

[Jason M]

19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I presume youre talking locally?... we have had many cold Easterlies, before 2018 there was 2013 which the CET was colder. In both 1985 and 1986 we had significant cold Easterlies, and we did in 1969... thats just off the top of my head..

Well the NOAA anomaly charts have shifted now in favour of a substantial block to our East which now touches Scandinavia. So some sort of cold spell is certainly on the table, but id like to see further charts being consistent just yet. Id have thought just a dry, raw, grey, pattern off the Continent would be most likely. Like the reliance on SSWs, the notion that Easterlies = snow is far from sound.
So these charts are going in the right direction for cold, but is far from certain. As for a late SSW? ..... do they deliver?...

My thinking as well. A very cold, dry, stratus fest but with very little snow. Under these set ups pressure tends to be too high which even with very low uppers stops convection.

[seabreeze86]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS refusing to backdown on its trigger shortwave .

These early differences aren’t great because we don’t want a middle ground solution . We want a clear win either way .

Theres no happy meeting halfway solution here for coldies .

 

One of the GFS’s strengths in my opinion is modelling these shortwave features near Greenland, but like you say we either want one or the other the middle ground between the models not what we need 

Edited January 31, 2023 by seabreeze86

[Gizzy]

Just checked out one of my favoured sites 16 day, showing cold returning 6th Feb, easterly by 9th Feb with snow from 10th. Interesting.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Gizzy

[Battleground Snow]

I think most of us would have taken this chart at day 7 a few days ago,

The orientation will change run to run, but I think we have a good level of cross model support for a Scandinavian high by next week now.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Rob 79812010]

40 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I presume youre talking locally?... we have had many cold Easterlies, before 2018 there was 2013 which the CET was colder. In both 1985 and 1986 we had significant cold Easterlies, and we did in 1969... thats just off the top of my head..

Well the NOAA anomaly charts have shifted now in favour of a substantial block to our East which now touches Scandinavia. So some sort of cold spell is certainly on the table, but id like to see further charts being consistent just yet. Id have thought just a dry, raw, grey, pattern off the Continent would be most likely. Like the reliance on SSWs, the notion that Easterlies = snow is far from sound.
So these charts are going in the right direction for cold, but is far from certain. As for a late SSW? ..... do they deliver?...

Yes, thank the 2018 one was the great snow for stockport. 2013 don't think we had much low down. Remember driving over the A62 though to Huddersfield. I'd never seen drifts like it. What I remember about 85 was a decent snowfall, started to thaw then a massive freeze. My road was treacherous. 86 was a crazy month from memory for the deep cold. We must of had some snow in Stockport but just can remember. Great that you have such a good recollection

[Rob 79812010]

47 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I presume youre talking locally?... we have had many cold Easterlies, before 2018 there was 2013 which the CET was colder. In both 1985 and 1986 we had significant cold Easterlies, and we did in 1969... thats just off the top of my head..

Well the NOAA anomaly charts have shifted now in favour of a substantial block to our East which now touches Scandinavia. So some sort of cold spell is certainly on the table, but id like to see further charts being consistent just yet. Id have thought just a dry, raw, grey, pattern off the Continent would be most likely. Like the reliance on SSWs, the notion that Easterlies = snow is far from sound.
So these charts are going in the right direction for cold, but is far from certain. As for a late SSW? ..... do they deliver?...

I'm 58. Please let me know any snowy easterlies I've missed that came over pennines. Do remember a good one in 96 I think!