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Model Output Discussion - Into February

damianslaw

By damianslaw
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
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Posted

It’s like a black hole. You can’t help being sucked in. Should know better but……..

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Graphics, Art

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

If it weren't for ukmo I'd be hardcore  ramping right now.

I just don't trust GFS ,or GEFS for that matter.. 

Still hoping for an EC det to match the potential Exeter update 🙏 

Edited by northwestsnow
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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s like a black hole. You can’t help being sucked in. Should know better but……..

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Graphics, Art

Well we had extreme heat last summer perhaps extreme cold is on the cards this winter 🤷🏼‍♂️ ….GFS is certainly providing some entertainment if nothing else …..

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

And if the  gfs 12z hasn’t trolled us enough on the cold pools, there’s a displacement ssw late on with the SPV at 10hpa pushed well into scandi 

Edited by bluearmy
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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted
1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

Meanwhile the GFS just plods on. -8 Celsius 850hpa knocking on the door from the east and west 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Sea, Water, Map

If only GFS had a reputation for holding on to its output for 27 runs without downgrading it in some way, then we could genuinely look forward to a cold and potentially snowy near future.

It doesnt....and we can't.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

JMA says no to the GFS. It looked like it was going to hit the buffers like the UKMO but its T132 hrs is okay.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
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Posted
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If it weren't for ukmo I'd be hardcore  ramping right now.

I just don't trust GFS ,or GEFS for that matter.. 

Still hoping for an EC det to match the potential Exeter update 🙏 

I'm ignoring UKM and into full ramp mode for the next hour at least

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Assume you mean no to the ukmo 🙂

JN132-21 (10).gif

Both ! It won’t evolve the same as the GFS but thankfully at that point it  said no to the UKMO.

Time to hide behind the sofa in readiness for the ECM !

Edited by nick sussex
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

I’m having it full on.. I think the ec 12z will start the punching line also.. Scandinavian height.. and a a cold flow ARE inbound!!

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
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Posted
8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’m having it full on.. I think the ec 12z will start the punching line also.. Scandinavian height.. and a a cold flow ARE inbound!!

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Me too.. bang on it.. we ramp and we cry together as has been the way for many years..

If ecm follows gfs.  Could be absolute scenes in here 

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

Fyny y Cymry ! 😎

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Rainforest, Vegetation, Tree, Plant, Outdoors

Think I dated her once 🤣

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supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Think I dated her once 🤣

We all did. 😂

And let me be the first to say…..

Crucial ECM.

On a serious note I can’t wait to see the full suite of ensembles tonight. GFS already showing dramatic improvement.

Could contain: Blackboard, Plot, Chart

 

Edited by supernova
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECM, GFS, UKMO

 

ECH1-72.GIF?31-0gfsnh-0-72.pngukmonh-0-72.png

 

72h more GFS than UKMO

Edited by Mucka
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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted

We were all laughing at the pathetic performance of the GFS after the 'upgrade' so unless the verification stats have massively improved then it probably best not to get too hopeful if it shows something nice. 

After many years of model watching on here I've learnt to expect the mildest solution any model shows to be the most likely to verify. 

A bit downbeat but I've seen too many of these easterly attempts fail. I'll raise my hopes if I see it at 72hrs.

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
6 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Think I dated her once 🤣

In this case you'd get the cold shoulder....

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Still sticking my Feb 6 FI but blimey, roll on a day...

Would be amazing to reel this 1 in.

 

graphe_ens8.gif

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Sea, Water, Map

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

T96, GFS and ECM not far from each other 

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Art, Outdoors, Modern Art

Looks like a bit of both UKMO and GFS

Edited by Gowon
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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Looks like a bit of both UKMO and GFS

The dreaded halfway house, which probably is pants for snowy cold. 

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