Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't like the look of ECM compared to GFS.

12O - 144 is key.

Nope, look where the cold goes. 

[Ali1977]

All 3 at 120, I’d say ECM looking more GFS around Scandy

Maybe the middle ground, so let’s see where it goes. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[Gowon]

Look like ICON now

Edited January 31, 2023 by Gowon

[northwestsnow]

abc it's following ukmo..

 

[Purga]

Not great but marginally better than UKMO

[Battleground Snow]

@Cold Winter Night @Singularity @Kirkcaldy Weather maybe some vindication for us.... 

 

 

 

[Mucka]

I'm going to say this run is not favoured in its ensemble suite, it has virtually all the energy running NE from 72h even though the ridge ahead is more impressive than previous runs so mixed bag.

Still better than UKMO IMO and it may still produce eventually.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

We have to bear in mind the ECM has made a change from early doors . 

And we don’t know yet whether that will continue to gather pace . Upstream it’s very similar to the GFS .

The difference is that shortwave to the ne of Iceland , this stops the ridge ne.

I think we need to hold fire until tomorrow. 

The ECM ensembles from this morning barely had two members backing tonight’s op at day 3 to day 5.

The models seem to have had problem with that southern Greenland area.

Edited January 31, 2023 by nick sussex

[January Snowstorm]

The trend over the years is that the ecm can quite often align with the Icon. 

If it was the old gfs I would back it all day long but not since the upgrade

[Guest]

The real question is not if there will be an easterly (there won't) but when will the GFS actually smell the coffee.  Dreadful model now.  UKMO, ECMWF and ICON all offering more feasible outcomes whereby many of us will be under the influence of high pressure close to the south for the time being.

[Stuie]

ECM does follow teleconnections, both here and US.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

The real question is not if there will be an easterly (there won't) but when will the GFS actually smell the coffee.  Dreadful model now.  UKMO, ECMWF and ICON all offering more feasible outcomes whereby many of us will be under the influence of high pressure close to the south for the time being.

I’ve been very critical of the GFS since the upgrade but the ECM has moved to it in the early stages .

We are talking here that the ECM could have been wrong at T72 hrs so given that I’m not sure it deserves to be viewed as having the correct medium term solution .

[Cloud 10]

More runs needed.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’ve been very critical of the GFS since the upgrade but the ECM has moved to it in the early stages .

We are talking here that the ECM could have been wrong at T72 hrs so given that I’m not sure it deserves to be viewed as having the correct medium term solution .

My thoughts entirely, not that it is worth anything.

I just don't buy the development between 72h and 120h  and  we are still seeing the output modify at 72h.

These Scandi high easterlies are notoriously fickle and there are always wobbles a plenty even if we eventually get lucky.

[seabreeze86]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’ve been very critical of the GFS since the upgrade but the ECM has moved to it in the early stages .

We are talking here that the ECM could have been wrong at T72 hrs so given that I’m not sure it deserves to be viewed as having the correct medium term solution .

If it was the old GFS I’d be more confident as from memory if often modelled that area around Greenland better that the others, usually finding a shortwave to scupper our easterly not bring us one 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’ve been very critical of the GFS since the upgrade but the ECM has moved to it in the early stages .

We are talking here that the ECM could have been wrong at T72 hrs so given that I’m not sure it deserves to be viewed as having the correct medium term solution .

Yes, some movement but IMO we are just headed towards a blended solution as is often the case and a blended solution in this case is not an easterly solution.

[blizzard81]

18 hours ago, Ms Rock & Blues said:

I agree, my birthday day is in February and I often get a snow treat.

Absolutely. Mine is early Jan and the opposite is true unfortunately

[northwestsnow]

EC blows away any notion of an Easterly.

[damianslaw]

One of those situations where the models play variance but unusually it is UKMO at the opposite end, GFS as normal one extreme, ECM in the middle to an extent, the divergence taking place at 120 hrs, which is just about in the reliable. I would expect some convergence in the next 24 hours, but may take a couple of days. Will GFS back away from its strong ridge to the NE development, or will the UKMO do an about turn.

As often the case we tend to see a middle ground, and this would be high pressure ridging and building into the Uk anchoring east, ending with what some call the sceuro ridge, chilly but not the deep cold some may want, whilst it will mean often dry calm weather away from the NW.

[Cambrian]

The very positive indications up to around day 8 are clearly strongly imprinted across the GFS suite, not just the op. So if the op is out, then most of the pack is too. I understand that it was only the op that was modified in the update. 

The 12z GEFS mean now showing the same broad evolution that the heralding ops were showing just a couple of days ago, two waves of Azores heights now very confidently migrating northeast through the UK and Ireland to Scandinavia. It’s great to look at!

 

It’s the second wave of building heights that seals the deal, the positive anomaly over +30 resulting in a surface high that is located very close to the core height anomaly, over Scandinavia proper, instead of a good way to the south like we’ve seen a lot of modelling in recent months when the anomaly isn’t quite strong enough. This is all wrapped up in the prerequisites needed for the building and migration of a strong 1040mb+ high, a weaker high you feel would just have flopped into Central Europe.

This is a great pointer for me in knowing what to look for when chasing future Scandinavian highs, including what to look for across the ECM suite over the next few days. 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

My thoughts entirely, not that it is worth anything.

I just don't buy the development between 72h and 120h  and  we are still seeing the output modify at 72h.

These Scandi high easterlies are notoriously fickle and there are always wobbles a plenty even if we eventually get lucky.

I agree. The ecm is a real kick in the goolies. However, like you say, this is certainly no comfort zone for the modelling, even at short notice. There's a reason why those spreads have been showing great uncertainty to our north and east. The models are struggling. Which means some volatile output at relatively short notice. 

[Ali1977]

Let’s hope the ECM is an outlier within the ENS, or we have at least a good percentage similar to the GFS 

[goosey007]

about as close as it gets on the EC op tonight ….feels like it’s putting us out of our misery early doors …not ready to call it another GFS horror show until we see a few more runs …..

Edited January 31, 2023 by goosey007

[Gowon]

 

3 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

about as close as it gets on the EC op tonight ….feels like it’s putting us out of our misery early doors …not ready to call it another it GFS horror show until we see a few more runs …..

I feel there's gonna be more drama - i'm not giving up on a snowy easterly yet

[knocker]

18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

One of those situations where the models play variance but unusually it is UKMO at the opposite end, GFS as normal one extreme, ECM in the middle to an extent, the divergence taking place at 120 hrs, which is just about in the reliable. I would expect some convergence in the next 24 hours, but may take a couple of days. Will GFS back away from its strong ridge to the NE development, or will the UKMO do an about turn.

As often the case we tend to see a middle ground, and this would be high pressure ridging and building into the Uk anchoring east, ending with what some call the sceuro ridge, chilly but not the deep cold some may want, whilst it will mean often dry calm weather away from the NW.

I don't follow why the UKMO is relevant to the medium term solution as that rather depends of the movement of the tpv lobe moving into Greenalne post t156, resulting in a pumped up jet and amplification of the ridge north east across Europe. To my simple mind it is pinning down the energy flows around the subsequent Euro high and thus pinning down the detail is quite a headache and at this range and best treated with great caution

Edited January 31, 2023 by knocker