Summer 2023 chat

[Addicks Fan 1981]

It's amazing @Daniel*that the CET is where it is in the grand scheme of things, though I do agree with @damianslawin the sense that this July is very similar to july 2009, you really couldnt make it up.    

[LetItSnow!]

9 hours ago, razorgrain said:

It's a good demonstration of how climate change is affecting our weather. Even when presented with the direst of weather setups with weeks of constant lows, an Arctic airmass and northerly breeze, we're only a few degrees below average and for the most part it's been very mild. I believe the CET is still somehow above average albeit very marginally. It probably would have snowed if this happened a few decades ago!

I don't disagree with you entirely but there would not have been summertime snow with these synoptics. We haven't had any true northerly blasts, there's always been some modulation. We are dealing with warmer seas than usual, even for the current era. A reverse of summer 2015 which had an unusually cool Atlantic. Also, they might be the exception, but we still do see unusually cool days.  Like local records in June last year and some days early this month were cool.

Edited July 24, 2023 by LetItSnow!
I typed current era on my phone... no idea why it turned into Christmas pudding!!!

[Catbrainz]

11 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I don't disagree with you entirely but there would not have been snow with these synoptics. We haven't had any true northerly blasts, there's been some modulation. We are dealing with warmer seas than usual, even for pudding. A reverse of summer 2015 which had an unusually cool Atlantic. Also, they might be the , but we still do see unusually cool days.  Like local records in June last year and some days early this were cool.

I don't think snow is possible anywhere in lowland UK in July, hard enough getting it in mid winter he he he but under this months synoptics Scottish peaks could have very well gotten snowfall and maybe even Snowdonia/Peak District peaks at a push. 

[raz.org.rain]

7 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I don't think snow is possible anywhere in lowland UK in July, hard enough getting it in mid winter he he he but under this months synoptics Scottish peaks could have very well gotten snowfall and maybe even Snowdonia/Peak District peaks at a push. 

Didn't it happen in the 1960s? Or were they exaggerating about heavy hail

[cheese]

54 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I don't think snow is possible anywhere in lowland UK in July, hard enough getting it in mid winter he he he but under this months synoptics Scottish peaks could have very well gotten snowfall and maybe even Snowdonia/Peak District peaks at a push. 

Most lowland locations have never fallen below freezing in July and August, let alone recorded snow. Even a notable frost hollow like Shawbury has never recorded an air frost in July or August. 

Edited July 25, 2023 by cheese

[Daniel*]

A growing area of central-southern U.K. is now 1C below 1991-2020 average, not sure near average cuts it. If the nights were cooler the anomaly would be more stark, that is what has been average.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, razorgrain said:

Didn't it happen in the 1960s? Or were they exaggerating about heavy hail

Truth is we really don't know. Every time it's mentioned, the it was probably hail thing turns up. It could have been either, did anyone here see it, would love to know one way or the other.

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A growing area of central-southern U.K. is now 1C below 1991-2020 average, not sure near average cuts it. If the nights were cooler the anomaly would be more stark, that is what has been average.

Shame there isn't one over Kent, but it wouldn't surprise me if we was at +0.2 like East Sussex coast. Basically average.

[richie3846]

4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

A growing area of central-southern U.K. is now 1C below 1991-2020 average, not sure near average cuts it. If the nights were cooler the anomaly would be more stark, that is what has been average.

That'll increase even further, yesterday was very cool, around 5 to 6c below average, and this morning it's around 10c or less in some places. A cool day today also, I'm sure pleasant enough in any sun, but sub 20c at the end of July even with the sun out at times, is well below the average, which I suspect is around 22c for much of the South. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

chance of very wet day today through the Cheshire Gap, tomorrow may be one off dry day

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Index 

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

2022 261

1947 255

1933 251

1901 249

1921 249

2003 247

1925 246

1935 243

1994 240

1934 238

1940 238

2021 238

1941 236

2023 236 (up to 23rd July)

[midlandsun]

14 hours ago, razorgrain said:

Cooler than average weather will still occur under climate change but the occurrence of such weather will drop dramatically when compared to warmer than average. The current synoptics are somewhat unusual due to the added factor of surplus moisture in the atmosphere from the Tonga eruption. I wouldn't expect to see that many repeats of such a poor July (let's remember so far it's only July that's been poor this summer).

Depends where you are, June was utter garbage apart from the last week or so where I am. The weather has been gash for the best part of a year here now.

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't remember them at all, whether good or bad, wouldn't know before about 84 though, before that we'll to young. Think my earliest weather memory is the 1987 winter storm. Don't think I'll ever forget it either.

Remember 83 and 84 were hot and sunny, and 89 was hot.

I have vague memories of hot sunny weather and storms during summer 1987, but it was mostly wet and cool.

[Azazel]

Into week 5 of the short unsettled blip now with no signs of improvement as we head into August. 

[mountain shadow]

No comment on the 0z says it all.

Dire.

[Azazel]

So really when I think about it, for my location and what constitutes a good summer (heat and storms) - this July has actually been worse than 2012 and 2007.

2007 had some thunderstorms - I remember we chased one big one out towards Basingstoke.

2012 had a hot spell near the end of the month.

This has now become officially the worst July in my lifetime. 
 

But it’s only a short blip 

[Cas Tiger]

another deep winter low at 970 coming our way. It then takes 4 days to clear us.

 

Only plus 6 in north yorks this morning. Ground is now wet and without sun it feels cool. Some pressure for a fire or an hours heating but i just cannot.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

11 hours ago, StingJet said:

Cabin Fever setting in bud (me included)

The 'cabin' in this case being encased in a perpetually grey, cool and grey tupperware box.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

10 hours ago, SollyOlly said:

Well, I would argue that's because those who like heat in the summer and 'mild' (warm) in the winter get it all their way these days.

Do they? Sure, last year was an absolute blinder from a hear and sunshine perspective, but such years are incredibly rare and outliers overall. 

Generally speaking, any 'heat' we get in summer lasts, what, a few days at a time (max) and a few weeks in total (across the entire 3 month summer season).

I do not class sunny days and temps of 22-27c as 'hot', or even in any way unexpected for London at this time of year considering the average max is 24c or so. How regularly do we have an entire month of 24/25c and mostly sunny weather? 

A few random days above 30c peppered from May to Sept, surrounded by weeks of 19-22c and overcast conditions doesn't make for a good summer, summery weather, or anything close to a 'hot' summer for heat lovers.

This is like me telling a cold / snow lover that they should rejoice and that they have it good because they got 2/3 days of snow in one month, and a few frosty days in the next month.

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

 

This is like me telling a cold / snow lover that they should rejoice and that they have it good because they got 2/3 days of snow in one month, and a few frosty days in the next month.

The way things have been for 35 years Im pretty some do now

[SollyOlly]

3 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Do they? Sure, last year was an absolute blinder from a hear and sunshine perspective, but such years are incredibly rare and outliers overall. 

Generally speaking, any 'heat' we get in summer lasts, what, a few days at a time (max) and a few weeks in total (across the entire 3 month summer season).

I do not class sunny days and temps of 22-27c as 'hot', or even in any way unexpected for London at this time of year considering the average max is 24c or so. How regularly do we have an entire month of 24/25c and mostly sunny weather? 

A few random days above 30c peppered from May to Sept, surrounded by weeks of 19-22c and overcast conditions doesn't make for a good summer, summery weather, or anything close to a 'hot' summer for heat lovers.

This is like me telling a cold / snow lover that they should rejoice and that they have it good because they got 2/3 days of snow in one month, and a few frosty days in the next month.

To be fair, cold-lovers do hear that all too often...and of course, we often go whole winters without any snow these days...!

[TwisterGirl81]

10 hours ago, Azazel said:

Isn’t the London average max for July 23 degrees? It’s only reached that 4 times and only gone above it once. Rest of the time it’s mostly been below or even well below average daytime temps.
 

The last two Saturdays wouldn’t have been out of place in November. 
 

This off the back of one of the worst springs in living memory.

July has been crap and you’d be hard-pressed to find many people who disagree - even those who are completely nonplussed at the prospect of warm weather. 

According to Wikipedia London average temperature is 23.9c for July though it’s probably nearer 25c in the past decade, so it’s been well below for average max’s for July, like most of the country. 
 
Lets hope August and September is warmer and sunnier than average 

 

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

According to Wikipedia London average temperature is 23.9c for July though it’s probably nearer 25c in the past decade, so it’s been well below for average max’s for July, like most of the country. 
 
Lets hope August and September is warmer and sunnier than average 

 

BUT BUT BUT the CET

[Nick L]

Avoid the showers this week and it's looking alright!

[SollyOlly]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

BUT BUT BUT the CET

ha ha. Yes, the CET...the longest and most reliable temperature record created by humans in the world...but I guess 'facts' are too tiresome for some folk. Better to rely on one's own feelings...