Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Here are the ECM ensemble graphics for the south coast, with the cut-off point at day 10 where the left graphic stops but the right graphic continues tactically highlighted...

March 6 looking like FI. This is like wishing time away but by Saturday it should become very clear (never is)

Not much speak about how the 2nd warming will tie in going forward apart from Eagle Eye.

[Bricriu]

The later stages of the ECM would seem to tally with the EC46. If it does get milder and unsettled, hopefully there will be another push of cold air in around 2 weeks, hopefully with even colder uppers to counter the strengthening sun. I would love a lengthy cold spell, but if the ECM delivers a two to three days snow spell next week with snow settling i will take it.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Bricriu

[Ali1977]

Interesting stuff 

[Bartlett High]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Interesting stuff 

I have no idea what any of that means

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting stuff 

What did happen next in March 1997?

[DAVE_ALLEN]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

What did happen next in March 1997?

It was April 1997

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What did happen next in March 1997?

1997 March was very warm (at 8.4, third warmest in the CET run for this century after 1957 and 1938, and indeed since 1659), and very dry, except in north-west Scotland.

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It looks quite snowy over Scandinavia with the trough to the South!

Just a shame none of us will be out there to enjoy it. Oh well….

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting stuff 

So was April 1997 notably cold? Or is he suggesting that we are going to end up with a very warm March as was the case in 1997?

[Ali1977]

Mean and control at 168 are just great - and that snow system moving from the north looks good shout next Tue/Wed 

12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So was April 1997 notably cold? Or is he suggesting that we are going to end up with a very warm March as was the case in 1997?

To me it shouts Northern blocking all month , I may be wrong 

[minus10]

Yes the ecm op warming up a bit too quickly at the end of the 10 days..

..also note the minority cluster staying cold at the end...maybe one to watch...

..edit they dont remain further on but still interesting...

Edited February 28, 2023 by minus10

[Ali1977]

Control at day 9 something like this would be good 

 

A satellite image like 2010 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Ali1977

[Chesil View]

So in 12 hours the ecm op goes from leading the conga in  a party hat to leaving the party early because it drunk to much to early on. And there was me thinking it was only the gfs that did that kind of thing.  Oh hang on a minute it's actually the gfs that extends the cold spell this evening.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,some very wintery charts on offer followed with exiting ensembles all kicking off at 120hrs plenty of snow on offer.The cold / very cold time that it continues is still up for grabs but a shock to the system will be definite.

[Ali1977]

A few other ENS to look at , plenty show snow but these are the better ones for various areas. 

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

Agreed Mark, this isn`t a NAVGEM model. It does chop and change but it seemed to latch onto the idea a few days back, backed off and now an upgrade.

Every model is twitchy.

I just adore the Navgem but I assure you it is mostly for fun and to add a bit of fun to the thread . Mogreps however as I understand it is the king of them all . 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Kentspur]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A few other ENS to look at , plenty show snow but these are the better ones for various areas. 

Can I order #1 please for the largest urban masses  

[Unpredictable Seasons]

Take 2 for a dream ending to winter... 

[Mark wheeler]

Deep breath everyone , a very important run has just started. Big Nasa run tonight.

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

So was April 1997 notably cold? Or is he suggesting that we are going to end up with a very warm March as was the case in 1997?

They’re probably referring to the US.

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

So was April 1997 notably cold? Or is he suggesting that we are going to end up with a very warm March as was the case in 1997?

Was just wondering the same ..below from Net weathers history of winters section. ..

[virtualsphere]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting stuff 

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

So was April 1997 notably cold? Or is he suggesting that we are going to end up with a very warm March as was the case in 1997?

I think this is a US Twitter account - I wondered if they were referring to the super Nino of 1998 given their previous tweet: 

 

[Battleground Snow]

No dramas from the icon 18z. Better than its earlier run.

 

[Ali1977]

Well the ICON looks better th the heights over Greenland, and the lower tracking jet steam (and weaker systems off the west coast of USA) from the west at T120 vs the last run. 

[Uncertainty]

One blue border cluster does not do the back end of the eps justice!  Looking through the members, there are wedges everywhere, lots of Atlantic energy yes, but i think the idea of a flat westerly with no blocking after day 10 is a bit far fetched. Especially considering the high sigma mjo p7/8 amplitude ahead and of course the multiple downwelling waves from the strat. 



 

The GEM ensembles have been starting to hint at a wedge appearing over scandi towards the end.

I think this could be where we’re headed. The big question in the meantime is where the Atlantic energy goes day 9+. The ec op looked like the mildest option but there are some very plausible options that take a low through the channel area which would of course bring a significant disruptive snow event should it manifest. 

Last thing from me, it really does look like an El Niño is coming, the huge westerly wind burst associated with this mjo wave surely paves the way for the end of this 3-year Nina event. The spring  forecast barrier is often real but modern times haven’t seen a 4 year Nina and there’s no evidence this will be it.