Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Bricriu]

56 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS op for day 10 looks like a proper Dumbo when compared with the ensemble mean 

  

Uppers not bad in either though.

 

Doesn’t look like this mild spell is gonna fly.

It's just a shame we don't see the coldest air up north make its way down towards us to maximise our chances for settling snow  later on in the month

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What drama !

And I might even see some snow down here , although the main action looks to be further north where there’s a better chance of avoiding a snow to rain scenario .

More model changes look likely so certainly lots to keep coldies interested.

 

Everything was on the table hey, still is but yeah fun.

[Cambrian]

The 12z ECM op holds out a lot of promise for where the trend might ultimately take us over the next few days. 

Notable differences appear as early as day 4 - at 96h, when compared with the 0z at 108h. 12z’s first….

 

The trough is noticeably more disrupted, and it and the 0+ T850s are held about 100 miles further south. The -8 T850 isotherm is further south across Northern England and Northern Ireland too, with the maintenance of a direct northerly feed into Scotland.

 

Further indications that Thursday into Friday is far from resolved, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this is just the beginning of a considerably longer holding off of the mild air towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This is a very positive development, with many more in the mix for seeing a proper, more longer lasting battleground snowfall. 

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

The 12z ECM op holds out a lot of promise for where the trend might ultimately take us over the next few days. 

Notable differences appear as early as day 4 - at 96h, when compared with the 0z at 108h. 12z’s first….

 

The trough is noticeably more disrupted, and it and the 0+ T850s are held about 100 miles further south. The -8 T850 isotherm is further south across Northern England and Northern Ireland too, with the maintenance of a direct northerly feed into Scotland.

 

Further indications that Thursday into Friday is far from resolved, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this is just the beginning of a considerably longer holding off of the mild air towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This is a very positive development, with many more in the mix for seeing a proper, more longer lasting battleground snowfall. 

Well put Cambrian. Brave man to dare mention the end of the week. These LP`s to the West are basically the focus this week, cold is there, they are not yet.

[nick sussex]

You can see the latest fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

The front moving south slows as that small wave develops over the southern Netherlands . 

You can see just how slow the progress of the front is between those two time periods .

T36 hrs                                                    T48 hrs

That allows the colder air more chance of undercutting the precip .

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You can see the latest fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

The front moving south slows as that small wave develops over the southern Netherlands . 

You can see just how slow the progress of the front is between those two time periods .

T36 hrs                                                 T48 hrs

That allows the colder air more chance of undercutting the precip .

 

Perfect Nick, can almost see you grabbing that last bit of DAM

[Jordan S]

Hi guys, Have been rather busy so haven't had time to really check the weather a great deal, but certainly looking very cold for the time of year for the next few days with around 3 frontal snow possibilities in central and southern England with ongoing snow shower risk in northern and eastern areas, possibly giving a few cm's to low levels..

Certainly some cold uppers over the country at the beginning of this week..

snow probably developing on the back edge of the cold front sweeping south later tomorrow into Tuesday, how much snow differs on the models but I suspect a few locations in central and southern England and Wales could see a few cm's on high ground with a light covering to lower levels before clearing away with isolated snow showers and frost the main theme across the country..

temperatures no higher than 5c with temperatures possibly dipping to -5c in the south on Tuesday night. 
The cold front clearing through tomorrow night starts a series of secondary lows/waving fronts set to move east/southeast through Wednesday into Thursday giving the risk of significant snow at times to southern and southwest England..

Then the next risk of snow after that in the south being later Thursday into early Friday with a low moving northeast into southwestern areas, giving the potential for several cm's of snow in places, moving erratically northeast so precipitation probably more back to rain in the far southwest..

Then by late Friday early Saturday the next frontal system tries to move in, this will probably make more progress so a transient period of snow seems likely for now for the Midlands,north Wales and anywhere to the north and east, with rain for western and southern areas introducing more of a thaw, Scotland keeps the snow showers..

On balance I think Scotland keeps the cold for the most part over the weekend and into the early part of next week 12th -14th march with further persistent snowfall most likely here due to frontal systems coming up against the block of cold to our north and northeast with the risk of gales and heavy rain in the south.

But around mid march as recent output has shown, a trend back to colder and snowier conditions further south are a possibility but featuring more from the east as high pressure could develop over Scandinavia for a time bringing possibly frequent marginal snowfalls to eastern areas but less cold in the west and far south with rain for the most part being the most likely outcome overall with winds tending to be from the southeast I think, probably not as cold as this spell coming, of this doesn't materialize then a very unsettled milder period with rain and strong winds frequently crossing the UK is the lesser likely outcome but with heights still relatively high over the north west and also to our south this time.

An interesting couple of weeks to say the least with most weather types being featured, a proper mixed bag but overall a cold/chilly mixed bag.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Jordan S

[sheikhy]

What a beast of a ecm12z for myself and @Battleground Snow!!but once again im gona say it wont happen lol!!funny how ecm looks better with the battleground snow events but then dont look as good as gfs and ukmo between 144 and 192 hours for the continuation of cold!!!weird that!!!!one thing that the ecm has lagged behind on is the potential snow event for tomorrow night!!it now goes full wack for snow across parts of england and works its way south!!!gfs has been on this for some time!!

[Battleground Snow]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What a beast of a ecm12z for myself and @Battleground Snow!!but once again im gona say it wont happen lol!!funny how ecm looks better with the battleground snow events but then dont look as good as gfs and ukmo between 144 and 192 hours for the continuation of cold!!!weird that!!!!one thing that the ecm has lagged behind on is the potential snow event for tomorrow night!!it now goes full wack for snow across parts of england and works its way south!!!gfs has been on this for some time!!

Thursday is an eternity away with this kind of setup, 12z EPS and mogreps are all over the shop still past day 4.

ECM control could be interesting looks to push cold south again early Friday .

Tuesday should give us a covering 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Thursday is an eternity away with this kind of setup, 12z EPS and mogreps are all over the shop still past day 4.

ECM control could be interesting looks to push cold south again early Friday .

Tuesday should give us a covering 

Ec control is even snowier than the op 

tomorrow is another day ….

[Spikey M]

52 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Irs a real pity the cold air isn't more genuinely entrenched. Its gets here about two days before it has to start fighting off the Atlantic push.

 

It's like busses. You wait all winter for a bit of weather, then 2 lots turn up at once.

 

 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

510 dam air approaching north Scotland’s coast. That’s very cold air.  Over night lows sub -10C.  I wonder how far south that 510 dam line will get.  The 528 dam line is running east /west along the South Downs. Could get very snowy indeed over the South Downs midweek

[Stuie]

Earlier today, @Mark wheeler and @E17boy reported snow flakes in the South.

GEFS at 13:00 was showing these 850`s. (-6)

 

It`s almost the models are 1 step behind current conditions. Could be an interesting week, no idea and not having a punt at day 5.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Stuie

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec control is even snowier than the op 

tomorrow is another day ….

snowy in which regions blue..and what day,please?

[Tim Bland]

Can someone please post snow depths from ECM control or point us in the direction of where to find it

[Rain All Night]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can someone please post snow depths from ECM control or point us in the direction of where to find it

There is this, though the members aren't labelled so I don't know which one is the control.

https://meteologix.com/uk/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/snow

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can someone please post snow depths from ECM control or point us in the direction of where to find it

[Jacob Gamer]

Just now, Eskimo said:

That is the OP

[Nick F]

Still too much model variance and run to run changes to be overly confident on potential snow event across S England during Wednesday, 12z EC and UKMO / 15z UKV quite similar, but could easily end up too far south. E.g. ICON over France. More runs needed until I get too excited.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can someone please post snow depths from ECM control or point us in the direction of where to find it

Snow depth next sat lunchtime (bucket load of salt )

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Thurs and Fri morning 

pretty widespread

[East Kent Snow Desert]

2 hours ago, PiscesStar said:

So, being in Herne Bay, Kent... Are we still in the snow zone at this stage? 

As a fellow resident in the bay I'm thinking falling snow Tues/Wednesday quite likely but lying snow much less so

[goosey007]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Snow depth next sat lunchtime (bucket load of salt )

I fancy you would need more than a bucket load to melt that lot 

[Guest]

Could be a Netweather first.....Drumroll.....Ladies and Gentlemen I give you....wait for it ....ALaro!

 

 It only shows that bit of Blighty, Just so happens to be in the bit I Iive! ( my new favourite model)

[pinball wizard]

Just now, Snowmut said:

Could be a Netweather first.....Drumroll.....Ladies and Gentlemen I give you....wait for it ....ALaro!

 

 It only shows that bit of Blighty, Just so happens to be in the bit I Iive! ( my new favourite model)

Looks like a great model to me