Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, CameronWS said:

What’s wrong with that? 

The fact Scotland always get snow in a northerly! Whilst us down south, struggle.

[CameronWS]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

The fact Scotland always get snow in a northerly! Whilst us down south, struggle.

West of Scotland and Central belt areas near Glasgow are drier than the majority of the UK in most northerly’s. More often than not battleground events occur further south. Just hope someone somewhere in the UK ends up with a big fall.

[sheikhy]

14 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

What’s wrong with that? 

Nothing wrong with it didnt say anything was wrong!!!lol!!!i expect scotland in general to have snow anyway!!

15 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

The fact Scotland always get snow in a northerly! Whilst us down south, struggle.

Pretty much took the words right out my mouth buddy!!

[jellybaby1969]

16 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

The fact Scotland always get snow in a northerly! Whilst us down south, struggle.

What normally happens is the whishbone effect..  Only the Far north and the east / west coast fringes are more prone to the Northerly showers (in scotland)

Edited March 6, 2023 by jellybaby1969

[Aiden2012]

Any thoughts on the ecm ? 
 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Aiden2012

[Jacob Gamer]

12 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Any thoughts on the ecm ? 
 

Better snow for the SE!

[Aiden2012]

2 minutes ago, Jacob Gamer said:

Better snow for the SE!

All good aslong as we get some up here aswell haha 

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Any thoughts on the ecm ? 
 

Amazing for the south coast on Wednesday. A solid belt of snow filling the area south of the M4. But how marginal is it?

[Rain All Night]

Another dip next week? Maybe even a cheeky one sooner than that on Friday?

Edited March 6, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Lloyd1]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Amazing for the south coast on Wednesday. A solid belt of snow filling the area south of the M4. But how marginal is it?

The Models don’t have a clue when it comes to this type of system and the margins. It’s a look out the window job for the next few days. I need a break from these models I think  

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Amazing for the south coast on Wednesday. A solid belt of snow filling the area south of the M4. But how marginal is it?

I'd imagine very marginal. I'm far from convinced we will see much if any settling during daytime unless we see a really intense feature like seen in the 15z ukv. That feels unlikely at this point, though I do suspect there will be something else sweeping across later on Wednesday.

I think timing will be important. If we are lucky with timing we could end up with a lot.unlucky and the 1st front whiffs out and then the 2nd feature comes through in the late afternoon weds we may well see snowfall but little on the ground to show for it afterwards unless it comes through intense. The models will almost certainly overdo snowfall depths were that to happen as well.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like the heaviest rain for a long while for southern Britain, on Thursday, washout conditions. ..

[RhHh]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the heaviest rain for a long while for southern Britain, on Thursday, washout conditions. ..

After the past 6 boring weeks I'll happily take that!

[Cambrian]

The 12z ECM operational run moves in the most direct fashion by day 10 to introduce a mobile pattern by mid-month. 

Eastward withdrawal of the PV from Europe and western Siberia to eastern Siberia and Alaska.

 

But the change to the Arctic heights is the most dramatic - the Greenland heights receive a daily blow, indeed the wider Arctic heights are decimated by day 10, and a much more normal heights profile is restored to the Northern Hemisphere. The end of the run is at day 10 I know, but the dismantling of the post-SSW profile follows an almost linear path from day 1. 

If correct, for now at least, it’s RIP SSW  - if not, it’s ECM LOL 

Time will tell, and it’s just one run for now. But an even greater imperative perhaps to thoroughly enjoy every snow event that comes our way this week. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Cambrian

[February1978]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the heaviest rain for a long while for southern Britain, on Thursday, washout conditions. ..

About 5mm here in last 6-7 weeks, quite easy to beat...!

[Jono E]

Models are firming up on the detail now - Midlands/South a wintry mix, rain/sleet/snow away from higher elevations on Tuesday-Wednesday. More significant snow for Northern parts on Thursday. So, disappointing considering the synoptics. Need to get this pattern in the winter months for anything significant.

[Cold Winter Night]

12 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Another dip next week?

Yes, suggesting a more pM wave of colder air.

In the extended, the ensemble remains at average, or below average with more sunshine (in De Bilt).

In combination with some reappearing heights between Scandinavia and Greenland on the clusters, this may hint at the development of more Easterly/Northeasterly flow later on. (Bright skies are good to me, but I'd rather see warmth too in the second half of March, but we may have to endure a lot more useless dry cold).

[Mark wheeler]

Sense check, current radar compared with what most models had . UKMO to me looks the closest. However I think all of them have down played the precipitation so far .

[stodge]

Evening all

Not wishing to sound like I'm stuck in a temporal loop but 24 hours and 14 pages on and my confusion remains undiminished..

I thought GEM was superb for cold fans but the inevitability of a messy breakdown from Thursday seems inescapable at this late hour. It does look as though it won't be a straight line to spring by any stretch with another PM cold shot likely through the weekend. 

Beyond that, who knows?

[sebastiaan1973]

 In my opinion we see in EC46 the effects of the SSW. Please check Eur Blocking. Earlier I wrote about a relaxation around the middle of the month. After that an increased chance for northern blocking. This is what we see in EC46.

 

[minus10]

Well thats some gfes...

...control is on something i think...

meanwhile the EPS...

...seems some ens sniffing out further cold perhaps....

...think this is all part of a return to a cold zonal/ polar maritime pattern which has been hinted at..potential for more surprises maybe.......

...in the meantime...just what is going on this week. ?

 

 

[Rain All Night]

Don't worry guys, there will be plenty of blocking - just after the point where we don't want it any more 

 

[Ali1977]

Icon shifts things north for Wed 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Icon shifts things north for Wed 

Will it shift the next low further south now?!!

[nick sussex]

What a surprise yet another change to the Thursday low pressure . The ICON 18 hrs run quickly flattens that and takes it further south .