Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Jacob said:

May someone send me a link to where I can find the 6z ECM? Most websites only include the 0z and the 12z

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°

 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Jacob said:

May someone send me a link to where I can find the 6z ECM?

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°

 

3 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Is the ecm taking Cumbria out of the sweet spot

Total accumulation for precipitation from now until 90 hours, impossible to say how much will be snowfall v rainfall

Edited March 7, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Jacob]

Just now, sheikhy said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°

 

Thank you!

[sub zero]

5 minutes ago, Jacob said:

May someone send me a link to where I can find the 6z ECM? Most websites only include the 0z and the 12z

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°

 

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°

 

Total accumulation for precipitation from now until 90 hours, impossible to say how much will be snowfall v rainfall

Is there anyway we can view the precipitation type charts?

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

The GEFS Mean has moved it much further north too

Pp mean is too high again for the coast, even higher than 0z 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmmm thursday friday slipping south aswell!as i mentioned this was my concern earlier on guys!!!

This is what we want shakes..as it stands the event for later this week is slightly on our Northern most edge.. in other words not much room for wiggle! If we can get that system 50 or so mile further South we could be looking at a direct hit for Thursday/Friday.

So basically if we keep moving tonight's that bit further North we could end up moving the next one further South..which would pull it further back from Northern England!

We very much have a nowcasting scenario about to play out folks. There's gonna be adjustments being made right down to 0hrs. How quick is this milder air gonna follow behind and will it last is the next big question? Personally I feel the recent warming will again bring those colder conditions South again with perhaps yet another chance of snowfall.

So basically folks it looks like your gonna have to get some sleep before midnight as some of you are probably gonna be on snow watch throughout the early hours.

Hey some of you are gonna get plastered in more ways than one

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is there anyway we can view the precipitation type charts?

I don't think so without a premium subscription, @bluearmy might show you if you ask nicely

[MattStoke]

No idea how good the COSMO model is but it has the snow line still across the Midlands and North Wales midnight Thursday.

[UnderTheAnvil]

Looks like some of the snow showers are making it inland, I'm getting snowed on as I type, a welcome surprise considering it wasn't on any of the forecasts I saw

[thetipster]

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWE 06z 
Next update expected at: 19:39, in 5h 55m 37s
Update interval: 6-7 hrs
Reference time: 2023-03-07T06:00:00Z

[Cambrian]

Us people on here should reflect very positively on the next few days, outcomes for specific locations aside.

It’s particularly rewarding because we have watched this cold spell develop from around a month ago, charting broadly favourable MJO phases and keeping a close eye on the stratospheric warmings, to observing it gradually manifest in the troposphere models - and now, with the inevitable proximity to the UK and Ireland of the dividing line between the battling air masses, seeing it play out in snow precipitation charts for events within hours. 

It’s almost a case of something for everyone at some point over the next 4 or 5 days or so, just reward for so many of us who just kept seeing it coming.

ICON has a newly available ensemble mean on Meteociel, this is the 120hr run from 0z. It doesn’t do a bad job of averaging the general models situation, beautifully showing the battleground in terms of temperatures and widespread snow opportunities through to Sunday.

 

Looking further ahead, it’s looking to turn colder again for all next week, Here is the 6z GFS ensemble mean through to day 8. For the two main lows, the first tracks right across the southern half of the UK and Ireland at day 3, the second right across the northern half towards day 7, with cold air spilling south for all thereafter. A series of lows disrupting into the base of the Scandinavian trough, which is still very much the dominant player at day 8. 

  

An exciting period ahead. Still much to be resolved on the tracking of the lows - it will go to the wire on each event, with another cold blast to come! Best wishes to you all for seeing some snow. 

[Rain All Night]

Could there still be a battle going on by next week?

[JamesL]

17 minutes ago, thetipster said:

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWE 06z 
Next update expected at: 19:39, in 5h 55m 37s
Update interval: 6-7 hrs
Reference time: 2023-03-07T06:00:00Z

That’s a lot of falling snow for SE Wales over around 24 hours. Heads of the valley looks a prime sweet spot 

[Adrian Major]

17 minutes ago, thetipster said:

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWE 06z 
Next update expected at: 19:39, in 5h 55m 37s
Update interval: 6-7 hrs
Reference time: 2023-03-07T06:00:00Z

Hello what a great map. Which website is this from please? Thanks

[Battleground Snow]

ECM 06z control is further north for Wednesday than the OP and further south for Thursday!

[winterof79]

[Rain All Night]

30 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

No idea how good the COSMO model is but it has the snow line still across the Midlands and North Wales midnight Thursday.

Some interesting background info on COSMO: http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/support/icon/default.htm

 

[MidnightSnow]

Going by some of the graphics on this page, it looks like the Wednesday low stalls during the afternoon / evening. Is the M4 corridor the sweet spot for a change? Am I seeing that correctly?

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Going by some of the graphics on this page, it looks like the Wednesday low stalls during the afternoon / evening. Is the M4 corridor the sweet spot for a change? Am I seeing that correctly?

It looks that way I'd say just south of the m4 up to luton area

[Methuselah]

Here's the latest Deep Dive from the Met. Office:

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

It looks that way I'd say just south of the m4 up to luton area

Sweet spot has adjusted a little north since even the 00z. Still time for movement north or south particularly with that second pulse coming through later on Weds.

The broad outlook from the models for Wednesday would be snow in early hours for most of southern counties, the heavier it I'd the greater accumulations will be, maybe a little patchy due to this imo. 2nd pulse maybe focused 30-50 miles north of 1st front. Much higher chance of rain for far south, the core being definately inland near rush hour may justify a amber if we get stronger agreement on exactly where it hits due to timing.

However soon it will be time to radar watch and keep track of reports. If your above 100m I'd be feeling very confident of snow settling tonight into early morning (4-7am) but even for lower places as long as your not on the weaker edge it should settle to some extent.

As for Thursday, no point in really looking too into that until tomorrow low zips out. I've got a gut feeling it could become VERY significant, maybe even on March 13 levels for the lucky ones.

[Ali1977]

40 minutes ago, thetipster said:

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWE 06z 
Next update expected at: 19:39, in 5h 55m 37s
Update interval: 6-7 hrs
Reference time: 2023-03-07T06:00:00Z

Well if that was right I’d be hoping for 6 inch’s of snow or more, 23 hours in some places!!

I have v v high hopes now - just hoping it works out for many of us!! A bit of wind on high ground coukd we’ll mean blizzards too 

[winterof79]

Arpege pushing the second wave of snow ever northward then reinforcements move in

Edited March 7, 2023 by winterof79

[Man With Beard]

I actually haven't checked the models as much today as I feel they have reached the limit of what they can tell us. There continue to be differences of up to 100 miles in the extent of precipitation one way or another at less than T24, which I can't believe is normal but perhaps my memory fails me. 

I do, however, think it is very likely most places will see some white stuff at some point.

Seeing that my area in the Solent is in a weird snow shield that many hi-res models have down for zero snow cover, just seeing snow feels like it would be a bonus! Appreciate others will want more