Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Guest]

Has the UKMO not updated this morning? 

[danm]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Has the UKMO not updated this morning? 

It has up to 144. Something wrong on the link that shows up to 168. All blank screens. 

[Blessed Weather]

Good morning All. Please don't respond to a clearly off topic post. Use the report button and let the team look at it, rather than responding and causing further off topic posts. Model Output Discussion in here.

Many thanks.

[ANYWEATHER]

All in FI but the next ten days at least look being low pressure dominated…..️

[Methuselah]

Could be quite a convective outlook, but I guess it'll depend on where the LP is centred on any particular day? 

[JayAlmeida]

I think we have to give the GFS some credit this morning.

It predicted a very brief building of heights with a return to unsettled conditions by Monday run after run with no wobble or deviation.

The GEM and ECM both had runs where the low was kept west allowing HP to build and a plume to develop in previous days. Now they're all singing from the same hymn sheet for day 6.

And we all know how what happens next.

Days 7-10 look pretty awful on all of the models.

After a week of pretty unsettled weather here in the NW the next 10-14 days aren't looking like much of an improvement.

That would be 3 weeks of dross smack bang in the middle of summer.

Edited July 3, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[minus10]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Ops coming into line with the ens output re next week looking more troughy 

we are now in new territory on the eps because of their extraordinary 9km resolution. this is 51 ens runs at a way higher resolution than other model ops 

 

Interesting...is it now the case that the eps are the same resolution as the ec operational e.g 9km as if that is the case what would be the point of the control run...which i think is still being shown?

[johnholmes]

Looking as usual at the 500 mb anomaly charts for 2 weeks ahead, from my daily notes

.....Neither does the next chart Sun 2 July. Neither of the two contour lines that cross the UK are anything but on the cold side with origins from similar to previous outputs. The 8-14 is really not much different with just the slightest hint of +ve anomalies in the far se corner of the chart. So the below average, temperature wise start for July continues, now half way though the month.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Earthshine]

Writing off the first 20 days of July?  Are we all looking at the same ensembles?

[Faronstream]

No change in sight for the 2nd half of the month, if anything it looks even worse compared to a few days ago with low pressure dominated westerlies strenghtened by the still warm waters of the north atlantic and high pressure stuck over greenland,all this evaporation probably leads to more rainfall long-term.

 

First pic: 24-31th of july

Second pic: 31th of july to 7th august

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Writing off the first 20 days of July?  Are we all looking at the same ensembles?

It’s a really poor effort from high summer. Can’t help but think we need a major pattern shift. Already starting to get nervy about my week away in Devon on the 24th….

[LRD]

 

17 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Writing off the first 20 days of July?  Are we all looking at the same ensembles?

Temp-wise they are not good. But it might still be pleasant if frontal rain or prolonged showers can be avoided.

The models don't look great this morning. MBY and other eastern and south-eastern areas might not do too badly but no dressing it up, it's looking like a below-par first half of July, at least. Possibly beyond that

The Met Office forecast has flipped to unsettled and cool for the next fortnight too. Hopefully just a blip and later July and into August brings back the sunny and warm weather - with a few thunderstorms thrown in for good measure

[mb018538]

Have to give the ECM model a bit of a slapped wrist here.
The probability forecast has gone from all red from the 8th July to now not seeing any until the end of July in the space of 2 days. (30th June vs 2nd July)



500mb forecast also now has low pressure dominating for the next 2 weeks, and even week 3 has the UK surrounded by high pressure, which will either mean more concerted low pressure, or just flabby low heights resulting in showers or longer spells of rain.



Let's hope the rise in momentum that Matt/Tamara have mentioned will bear fruit towards the last couple of weeks of the month. These usually from experience just appear from nowhere as the models don't factor them in too well. 

Either way it's a bit of a bust from most LRFs, none of which picked a low pressure dominated July coming to the party this year!

[danm]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Have to give the ECM model a bit of a slapped wrist here.
The probability forecast has gone from all red from the 8th July to now not seeing any until the end of July in the space of 2 days. (30th June vs 2nd July)

Either way it's a bit of a bust from most LRFs, none of which picked a low pressure dominated July coming to the party this year!

Doesn’t your post just indicate that none of us should place too much faith in the medium to long range models, if they can flip so decisively in 2 days, as you say? Doesn’t that in itself suggest that even the flip to a more unsettled outlook for the foreseeable shouldn’t be relied upon too much as well? 

We obviously don’t ignore them, as it gives us a tentative direction of travel, but they are unreliable. Hence just primarily focus on what’s been shown modelled up to day 7 and take anything beyond then with a large dollop of salt.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Doesn’t your post just indicate that none of us should place too much faith in the medium to long range models, if they can flip so decisively in 2 days, as you say? Doesn’t that in itself suggest that even the flip to a more unsettled outlook for the foreseeable shouldn’t be relied upon too much as well? 

We obviously don’t ignore them, as it gives us a tentative direction of travel, but they are unreliable. Hence just primarily focus on what’s been shown modelled up to day 7 and take anything beyond then with a large dollop of salt.

Sure - I'm hoping that as quickly as this has descended upon us that at some point it'll just flip out of nowhere. Judging by the AAM forecasts it's just going to be a bit slower than first anticipated. Weather just likes to make mugs of us all. Just a bit surprised it's being quite persistent now that it's arrived, as it's not an atmospheric state like 2007/2012 that would tend to lend itself to long periods of unsettled weather for weeks on end.

[danm]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sure - I'm hoping that as quickly as this has descended upon us that at some point it'll just flip out of nowhere. Judging by the AAM forecasts it's just going to be a bit slower than first anticipated. Weather just likes to make mugs of us all. Just a bit surprised it's being quite persistent now that it's arrived, as it's not an atmospheric state like 2007/2012 that would tend to lend itself to long periods of unsettled weather for weeks on end.

Yep, and because it’s not an atmospheric state that lends itself to a 2007/2012 repeat I’m even less keen to place much faith in what’s being shown beyond 7 to 10 days. 

[Scorcher]

Seriously I will take a southerly right now (or any kind of warm air), even if it's unsettled and potentially even rainy- this morning here really is the pits for high summer. Properly cold feeling and miserable.

So in that respect it's going to be a big improvement from midweek onwards. I don't see any point in depressing myself by looking too much further than the end of this week.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

The anomalies haven't actually been that accurate recently as far as I can see.

Depends which anomalies you are on about. The ECM anomalies that go out a month havnt been accurate, the EPS has been bang on, and wrong. The NOAA charts have been accurate...

Can we "write off" the next two weeks after this plume?... in terms of heat - yes. These charts suggest below average temperatures and unsettled. As has been said, theres no quick route to heat off these charts, assuming they are going to be accurate... i hope they arnt, lol..

[jamesthemonkeh]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Dreadful set of 00z runs. I really thought the unsettled start to July would flush out pretty quickly this year and not be like years gone by….looks like I was wrong. First 15-20 days look written off already now.

I feel like you might be able to write off the first 15 days in terms of sustained settled, hot, sunny weather - sure.

But Thursday, Friday and maybe Saturday look mostly very pleasant and summer-like for England, and probably at least parts of Wales/Scotland.

Sure there is a low pressure anomoly, but it doesn't mean we can write off all the next 15 days.  Some days, sure - but only some.

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Sure - I'm hoping that as quickly as this has descended upon us that at some point it'll just flip out of nowhere. Judging by the AAM forecasts it's just going to be a bit slower than first anticipated. Weather just likes to make mugs of us all. Just a bit surprised it's being quite persistent now that it's arrived, as it's not an atmospheric state like 2007/2012 that would tend to lend itself to long periods of unsettled weather for weeks on end.

I think the long range ECM in paricular can be disregarded if you want accuracy at the range it provides which makes these charts not really that worrying.

Its was predicting HP and way above average temps for most of July up until recently now its just amplifying the current trend by the looks of things.

We seem to have our short/mid range patrern now anything beyond that is hokum

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Seriously I will take a southerly right now (or any kind of warm air), even if it's unsettled and potentially even rainy- this morning here really is the pits for high summer. Properly cold feeling and miserable.

So in that respect it's going to be a big improvement from midweek onwards. I don't see any point in depressing myself by looking too much further than the end of this week.

Yeah it's rained all morning here and the charts look like more of the same beyond Sunday now.

It gets to that point where its time to take a break from chart chasing and concede defeat in the shorter term.

Gona take a break for a few days myself and hope some signals of improvement start to appear later in the week.

[northwestsnow]

I was going to post something about the latest GFS but can't muster the will.

We could do with seeing the back of this blocking at high latitudes,the jet is trapping troughs at our latitude ..

One is trapped just far enough west to allow a brief plume but on the whole its a tough pattern to break out of..

[Guest]

Gfs 06Z is no different alas, in fact the ensembles beyond the 10th look even poorer with almost all the rouge warmer solutions now completely removed. 

[MP-R]

Struggling to find anything of interest across the models apart from the brief window that resembles the time of year at the end of this week.

Some similarities between the weekend and the first week of September last year which was very wet and thundery but also quite warm. 

 

Warmer air at play on Friday (shame it's not likely to last more than five mintues at the moment), but could be some big showers/storms around at the weekend. My main concern is sunshine amounts - this is the most important aspect for a summer month, and they could be quite poor unless the Atlantic trough behaves.

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

It’s a really poor effort from high summer. Can’t help but think we need a major pattern shift. Already starting to get nervy about my week away in Devon on the 24th….

Your not the only one buddy!!ive got a week away in great yarmouth betweeen 17th and 22nd july and im worried big time about weather conditions!!!i put a post a couple of weeks ago and my question was "has our summer peaked to early and have the real hot conditions come and gone?!"!well fast forward 2 weeks to now and it looks like my fears COULD be about to become reality!!!!lets see....!!!