Autumn 2023

[reef]

11 minutes ago, cheese said:

28.3C, dew point 20.2C. Feels tropical out there. Definitely has the feeling of a very warm night to come. 

Already down to 18.7C here at 5.45pm. I think that forecast of a 17C min looks shaky again!

[danm]

Weather: Temperatures above 30C for five consecutive days in September in new UK record

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

The UK experienced the hottest day of the year so far on Thursday, when temperatures in Wisley, Surrey soared to 32.6C (90.7F) - breaking the record set only 24 hours prior.

 

[lassie23]

51 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

31.3 today so a degree down on yesterday. So less sweaty!

We're only one week in dear ...

but squirrels need their nuts

[Catbrainz]

I know a very random thing but I saw a article a bit ago on BBC that reckoned London would  have the climate of Barcelonia in 2050 and decided to do a mixture of London's and Barcelona's climate to see what comes out. (All figures roughly worked out.). Curious what climates match this theoretical climate the most. It looks like a drier Bordeaux to me (Which makes sense as its about halfway between the two cities latitude wise) and im also reminded a bit of Portland Oregon too with wetter summers and again being mid way lat wise. Seems more realistic for London's climate in 2050 for sure :P. Some shades of North Island NZ and SE Australia too. 

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Nope, he’s out there lurking. I’ve seen him from the window.

Its weird because every September for the past 3 years I’ve seen a hornet in our garden. 
 

A few years ago we put some timber down and were one day set upon by the horror known as the wood wasp. I had never seen one before but they are seriously massive - and I mistook the ovipositor for a stinger (it’s like the size of a sword) - my missus Dad (who’s unfazed by absolutely anything) was pushing a wheelbarrow of concrete when one flew into him and he threw the wheelbarrow and legged it out the garden. He had never seen one either.

I took this picture (from behind bulletproof glass)

Hornets are terrifying but they seem way more chill than wasps that get all up in your face. 

Regarding wood wasps...you'll be pleased to know that as unsettling as they look, they don't actually sting (according to the internet, at least)! 

It's all for show, perhaps... an intimidation technique

[Addicks Fan 1981]

5 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I know a very random thing but I saw a article a bit ago on BBC that reckoned London would  have the climate of Barcelonia in 2050 and decided to do a mixture of London's and Barcelona's climate to see what comes out. (All figures roughly worked out.). Curious what climates match this theoretical climate the most. It looks like a drier Bordeaux to me (Which makes sense as its about halfway between the two cities latitude wise) and im also reminded a bit of Portland Oregon too with wetter summers and again being mid way lat wise. Seems more realistic for London's climate in 2050 for sure :P. Some shades of North Island NZ and SE Australia too. 

 

Something we can't stop really, it is here to stay like it or not.     

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

28.3C, dew point 20.2C. Feels tropical out there. Definitely has the feeling of a very warm night to come. 

It's a pretty surreal experience for autumn 

[raz.org.rain]

29 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I know a very random thing but I saw a article a bit ago on BBC that reckoned London would  have the climate of Barcelonia in 2050 and decided to do a mixture of London's and Barcelona's climate to see what comes out. (All figures roughly worked out.). Curious what climates match this theoretical climate the most. It looks like a drier Bordeaux to me (Which makes sense as its about halfway between the two cities latitude wise) and im also reminded a bit of Portland Oregon too with wetter summers and again being mid way lat wise. Seems more realistic for London's climate in 2050 for sure :P. Some shades of North Island NZ and SE Australia too. 

 

Someone mentioned expanding Hadley cells in another thread. The outcome is a more southern dominated climate with heat circulating closer, basically pushes current climates further north.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

32 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I know a very random thing but I saw a article a bit ago on BBC that reckoned London would  have the climate of Barcelonia in 2050 and decided to do a mixture of London's and Barcelona's climate to see what comes out. (All figures roughly worked out.). Curious what climates match this theoretical climate the most. It looks like a drier Bordeaux to me (Which makes sense as its about halfway between the two cities latitude wise) and im also reminded a bit of Portland Oregon too with wetter summers and again being mid way lat wise. Seems more realistic for London's climate in 2050 for sure :P. Some shades of North Island NZ and SE Australia too. 

 

I personally do not believe that London will have a climate comparable to Barcelona. We're simply too far north, and the disparity between our winter weather and summer weather is too great.

The thing is, alot of people equate London getting more heat 'plumes' and warmer spells during summer where the temps are the same as Barcelona's average max, to London developing a 'Mediterranean' climate.

What's overlooked is the seasonality aspect. London still gets, and will continue to get, very cold spells during winter, and snowy spells too. Barcelona simply doesn't haven't this. 

London getting more 28-30c+ days during Summer doesn't equate to a Med climate unless we lose all semblance of a Northern European winter too, which, there's no sign of happening. 

Last December we had that week where daytime temps were either freezing of below. Has Barcelona ever even recorded a spell of weather like this? Not sure. According to Google, snowfall "has happened" there, but is incredibly rare. Daytime maxes for Dec-Jan are 16c. That's only a tad lower than the average maxes for May and even early June in alot of the UK

Edited September 8, 2023 by In Absence of True Seasons

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I personally do not believe that London will have a climate comparable to Barcelona. We're simply too far north, and the disparity between our winter weather and summer weather is too great.

The thing is, alot of people equate London getting more heat 'plumes' and warmer spells during summer where the temps are the same as Barcelona's average max, to London developing a 'Mediterranean' climate.

What's overlooked is the seasonality aspect. London still gets, and will continue to get, very cold spells during winter, and snowy spells too. Barcelona simply doesn't haven't this. 

London getting more 28-30c+ days during Summer doesn't equate to a Med climate unless we lose all semblance of a Northern European winter too, which, there's no sign of happening. 

Last December we had that week where daytime temps were either freezing of below. Has Barcelona ever even recorded a spell of weather like this? Not sure. According to Google, snowfall "has happened" there, but is incredibly rare. Daytime maxes for Dec-Jan are 16c. That's only a tad lower than the average maxes for May and even early June in alot of the UK

If London had the same rainfall pattern as Seattle (i.e very wet winters, very dry summers), it would technically have a warm summer Mediterranean climate. London’s winters certainly aren’t too cold to be Mediterranean.

 

I believe parts of the south coast actually do come close to a warm summer Mediterranean classification because of their wet winter/dry summer pattern. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by cheese

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I personally do not believe that London will have a climate comparable to Barcelona. We're simply too far north, and the disparity between our winter weather and summer weather is too great.

The thing is, alot of people equate London getting more heat 'plumes' and warmer spells during summer where the temps are the same as Barcelona's average max, to London developing a 'Mediterranean' climate.

What's overlooked is the seasonality aspect. London still gets, and will continue to get, very cold spells during winter, and snowy spells too. Barcelona simply doesn't haven't this. 

London getting more 28-30c+ days during Summer doesn't equate to a Med climate unless we lose all semblance of a Northern European winter too, which, there's no sign of happening. 

Last December we had that week where daytime temps were either freezing of below. Has Barcelona ever even recorded a spell of weather like this? Not sure. According to Google, snowfall "has happened" there, but is incredibly rare. Daytime maxes for Dec-Jan are 16c. That's only a tad lower than the average maxes for May and even early June in alot of the UK

Agreed, while hot spells may become more frequent and severe in Summer no chance of Winters getting close to Barcelona due to our latitude, and no amount of climate change can override the pretty large difference in latitudes in my opinion.

[Methuselah]

Personally, I think this September will have a phenomenal first ten days. Seven straight days exceeding 30C would be outstanding for any month! 

4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Agreed, while hot spells may become more frequent and severe in Summer no chance of Winters getting close to Barcelona due to our latitude, and no amount of climate change can override the pretty large difference in latitudes in my opinion.

I hate to think what Barcelona's climate will be like in 2050! 

[stainesbloke]

40 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I personally do not believe that London will have a climate comparable to Barcelona. We're simply too far north, and the disparity between our winter weather and summer weather is too great.

The thing is, alot of people equate London getting more heat 'plumes' and warmer spells during summer where the temps are the same as Barcelona's average max, to London developing a 'Mediterranean' climate.

What's overlooked is the seasonality aspect. London still gets, and will continue to get, very cold spells during winter, and snowy spells too. Barcelona simply doesn't haven't this. 

London getting more 28-30c+ days during Summer doesn't equate to a Med climate unless we lose all semblance of a Northern European winter too, which, there's no sign of happening. 

Last December we had that week where daytime temps were either freezing of below. Has Barcelona ever even recorded a spell of weather like this? Not sure. According to Google, snowfall "has happened" there, but is incredibly rare. Daytime maxes for Dec-Jan are 16c. That's only a tad lower than the average maxes for May and even early June in alot of the UK

Agree. London’s climate isn’t anything like that of Barcelona. For a start, Barcelona gets over 2500 hours of sunshine a year, which is nearly 900 hours more than London. All this ‘Mediterranean climate’ talk is just that, hot air. 90% of the British climate will likely still be the same old, dreary grey bore-fest

[Captain Shortwave]

Bit of a head scratcher, most forecasts suggest the hottest day will be tomorrow at around 33c. Yet most models want Sunday to be a degree hotter than Saturday.

ECM another example

   
 

Another when corrected going for around 34c on Sunday. I know there is uncertainty regarding the risk of thunderstorms but again most models are placing the risk from the midlands and north and west of here.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Captain Shortwave

[cheeky_monkey]

another cracking Autumn day here 20c and sunny after a pleasant 6c start to the day 

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

another cracking Autumn day here 20c and sunny after a pleasant 6c start to the day 

You see that's what I wanted out of this spell, not high 20s and dew points that make you sweat like a pig. 

[Catbrainz]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I do not believe that London will have a climate comparable to Barcelona. We're too far north, and the between our winter weather and summer weather is too great.

The thing is, alot of people equate London getting more heat 'plumes' and warmer spells during summer where the temps are the same as Barcelona's average max, to London developing a 'Mediterranean' climate.

What's overlooked is the seasonality aspect. London still gets, and will continue to get, very cold spells during winter, and snowy spells too. Barcelona doesn't haven't this. 

London getting more 28-30c+ days during Summer doesn't equate to a Med climate unless we lose all semblance of a Northern European winter too, which, there's sign of happening. 

Last December we had that week where daytime temps were either freezing of below. Has Barcelona even recorded a spell of weather like this? Not sure. According to Google, "has happened" there, but is incredibly rare. Daytime maxes for Dec-Jan are 16c. That's only a tad lower than the average maxes for May and even early June in alot of the UK

I don't think that myself that London will have a Barcelona climate by 2050 the fact that the BBC would say that seems weird. . (Just clarifying I did not think that assessment of climate shift was accurate).. That's a 10 degree latitude shift, It would be like saying Boston MA will have the climate of South Carolina in 2050. Geography alone means London will still be exposed to cold airmasses from time to time both due to higher latitude and has Greenland, Scandinavia and Siberia/Russia to tap into cold while Barcelona is surrounded by the warm Med which would put a spanner for any cold. 

On a tangent the UK does have one of the worse winter climates for my tastes alongside the PNW,Northern France,Benelux and Southern New Zealand (Only counting lowland climates here), Too mild for true wintery weather such as snow but too cool to be a winter "escape" climate alongside low sunshine levels and constant rain

[Alderc 2.0]

What was the max temp today? 

[SunSean]

I think I may be one of few who find this glorious spell of weather seasonable haha. Still Summer for me until the 23rd 

If we get a few days of high 20's or another 30 after then, I will agree it's unseasonable. Glorious but unseasonable haha.

In the meantime, for IMBY, here is some examples of recent great weather in September, AKA late Summer-

Sep 2016- (7th to the 15th) 8 days out of 9 with over 50% sunshine with the hottest 4 being 32c, 29c, 28c & 25c

Sep 2018- (10th to the 19th) 8 out of 10 days with over 50% sun, cooler temps with 2 days reaching 25c

Sep 2019- (12th- 21st) 9 out of 10 days over 50% sun with the hottest being one at 26c and 2 at 25c

Sep 2020- (12th- 22nd) 10 out of 11 days of nigh on wall to wall sun with the hottest 2 reaching 29c and 4 of those days at 25c

Sep 2021- (4th- 9th) 5 days of mostly clear skies with temps of the first 4 days reaching 26c, 28c and 2 at 30c

Unseasonable? Certainly not in these parts! Although I acknowledge the temps are exceptional this time!

Edited September 8, 2023 by SunSean

[NEVES SCREAMER]

50 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

another cracking Autumn day here 20c and sunny after a pleasant 6c start to the day 

Sounds like most of July here. Minus the sun. 

[raz.org.rain]

13 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I don't think that myself that London will have a Barcelona climate by 2050 the fact that the BBC would say that seems weird. . (Just clarifying I did not think that assessment of climate shift was accurate).. That's a 10 degree latitude shift, It would be like saying Boston MA will have the climate of South Carolina in 2050. Geography alone means London will still be exposed to cold airmasses from time to time both due to higher latitude and has Greenland, Scandinavia and Siberia/Russia to tap into cold while Barcelona is surrounded by the warm Med which would put a spanner for any cold. 

On a tangent the UK does have one of the worse winter climates for my tastes alongside the PNW,Northern France,Benelux and Southern New Zealand (Only counting lowland climates here), Too mild for true wintery weather such as snow but too cool to be a winter "escape" climate alongside low sunshine levels and constant rain

The BBC are citing a published academic paper. The paper bases their argument on temperature change alone, so obviously some questionable findings. Unfortunately it's common for the media and even the academic community to get hinged on a simplified abstract from a paper with dubious findings. 

[cheese]

16 minutes ago, SunSean said:

I think I may be one of few who find this glorious spell of weather seasonable haha. Still Summer for me until the 23rd 

If we get a few days of high 20's or another 30 after then, I will agree it's unseasonable. Glorious but unseasonable haha.

In the meantime, for IMBY, here is some examples of recent great weather in September, AKA late Summer-

Sep 2016- (7th to the 15th) 8 days out of 9 with over 50% sunshine with the hottest 4 being 32c, 29c, 28c & 25c

Sep 2018- (10th to the 19th) 8 out of 10 days with over 50% sun, cooler temps with 2 days reaching 25c

Sep 2019- (12th- 21st) 9 out of 10 days over 50% sun with the hottest being one at 26c and 2 at 25c

Sep 2020- (12th- 22nd) 10 out of 11 days of nigh on wall to wall sun with the hottest 2 reaching 29c and 4 of those days at 25c

Sep 2021- (4th- 9th) 5 days of mostly clear skies with temps of the first 4 days reaching 26c, 28c and 2 at 30c

Unseasonable? Certainly not in these parts! Although I acknowledge the temps are exceptional this time!

It’s undeniably very hot for September but idk why some people expect autumnal weather as soon as 1st September hits. Maybe after the equinox but certainly not before. 
 

On another note, it’s still 23C with a dew point of 20C. A warm night indeed. You never get nights this warm in May despite May having significantly shorter nights. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by cheese

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Regarding wood wasps...you'll be pleased to know that as unsettling as they look, they don't actually sting (according to the internet, at least)! 

It's all for show, perhaps... an intimidation technique

Not even that, the ones with the long bit are females, it's the thing they lay eggs from.

[Blessed Weather]

33 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

What was the max temp today? 

 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

another cracking Autumn day here 20c and sunny after a pleasant 6c start to the day 

Here it's still 20⁰ now at 21:30.