Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[WeatherEnthusiast]

8 minutes ago, Gary L said:

Manchester wall to wall sunshine and 25c through middle of next week on met office computer output.

Glad some other Manchester people spotted it. Looking forward to being able to sort my very very overgrown garden out.

it will take a while for the gardens to dry out. Attempted to get the mower out this morning but the grass is soaking wet after last nights torrential rain and this mornings dense fog. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[WeatherEnthusiast]

Deep icelandic low on the way on the 9th and 10th September 

Edited September 1, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[Summer Sun]

You can tell the kids are back in school next week right on cue, summer shows its hand

[WeatherEnthusiast]

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

You can tell the kids are back in school next week right on cue, summer shows its hand

I dont like the look of that icelandic low a week on Sunday. 

[TwisterGirl81]

The latest gfs looks much better for settled weather and fairly warm too especially for southern areas....We really need a good long settled period now to make up for an awful July and mediocre at best August, please!

[legion_quest]

Bit too Southerly for my liking. 

Some settled sunny days with a cooler breeze, like early June, would be my preference. Doesnt look like that set up is on the cards at all.

Just humidity. 

[WeatherEnthusiast]

What would the weather have been like over the next 10 days if the hurricanes hadnt formed?  I love tropical humidity! 

Edited September 1, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[TwisterGirl81]

7 minutes ago, legion_quest said:

Bit too Southerly for my liking. 

Some settled sunny days with a cooler breeze, like early June, would be my preference. Doesnt look like that set up is on the cards at all.

Just humidity. 

Better than feeling like Autumn in Summer like it has for the most of the past 2 months, might I suggest a move to Faroe Islands for you if you like cool summer weather?  

Edited September 1, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[legion_quest]

4 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Better than feeling like Autumn in Summer like it has for the most of the past 2 months, might I suggest a move to Faroe Islands for you if you like cool summer weather?  

I shall depart post haste, as soon as you confirm your elope to Greece for super hot sun all summer long  

[alexisj9]

37 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:

I dont like the look of that icelandic low a week on Sunday. 

It's on the GFS, not sure I believe it. Not at 8/9 days lead time anyway.

[Buzz]

36 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:

I dont like the look of that icelandic low a week on Sunday. 

You and a few other posters seriously need to stop looking at possible negatives all of the time. Do your best to enjoy what you have instead of looking for the breakdowns in any nice weather, particularly if said breakdowns are over a week away.

Discussion of the model output is of course what this thread is for, but you need to learn to look at ALL of the model output and not concentrate on one run from one model to prove whatever point you are trying to make at the time. You also need to realise that the further out the model run goes, the less accurate it will be - you'll save your sanity if you only look at general trends across all of the models when looking further ahead.

[legion_quest]

52 minutes ago, Buzz said:

You and a few other posters seriously need to stop looking at possible negatives all of the time. Do your best to enjoy what you have instead of looking for the breakdowns in any nice weather, particularly if said breakdowns are over a week away.

Discussion of the model output is of course what this thread is for, but you need to learn to look at ALL of the model output and not concentrate on one run from one model to prove whatever point you are trying to make at the time. You also need to realise that the further out the model run goes, the less accurate it will be - you'll save your sanity if you only look at general trends across all of the models when looking further ahead.

To be fair, plenty of people here 'hope cast' and use cherry picked charts to find the outcome they'd most like, be them negative, positive or whatever - even more so this summer. 

That's the fun of the charts thread. See what models are thrown out, see people react, see what actually happens. 

As long as people arent making charts up or reading them wrong, it's fair game.

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, legion_quest said:

I shall depart post haste, as soon as you confirm your elope to Greece for super hot sun all summer long  

Maybe Scotland could be an option for you too   I don't want hot, I'd like just every day of around 24c and more sunny days than cloudy ones unlike this year in July and August and the cool wet dull spring we had.

From this weekend and next week look perfect to me, it's going to feel like a lovely dream

Edited September 1, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[WeatherEnthusiast]

3 minutes ago, legion_quest said:

To be fair, plenty of people here 'hope cast' and use cherry picked charts to find the outcome they'd most like, be them negative, positive or whatever - even more so this summer. 

That's the fun of the charts thread. See what models are thrown out, see people react, see what actually happens. 

As long as people arent making charts up or reading them wrong, it's fair game.

All I am reporting are what the models are showing but perhaps i am focused on looking at the GFS runs 4 times a day instead of comparing four or five models and looking at the overall pressure trends  . I am not creating my own models but I am generally negative  !  I understand how to read the 500mb and 850 charts and can see what is going to happen when combined with reviewing the jet stream. My preference is for the UK to be under a permanent Azores high and it to never rain but sadly that will never happen. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[legion_quest]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

Maybe Scotland could be an option for you too   I don't want hot, I'd like just every day of around 24c and more sunny days than cloudy ones unlike this year in July and August and the cool wet dull spring we had 

I'd be happy with 24 too! Just with a nice breeze, not humidity.

It's humidity I cant 'do' - a nice sunny day is always welcome! 

[TwisterGirl81]

Just now, legion_quest said:

I'd be happy with 24 too! Just with a nice breeze, not humidity.

It's humidity I cant 'do' - a nice sunny day is always welcome! 

It's not really til it goes above 25c that the humidity might be hard for those inclined

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:

it will take a while for the gardens to dry out. Attempted to get the mower out this morning but the grass is soaking wet after last nights torrential rain and this mornings dense fog. 

I can assure you by mid next week the gardens will be more than dry enough to mow the lawn, it'll probably be dry enough by Sunday to do mine here.

[WeatherEnthusiast]

2 minutes ago, legion_quest said:

I'd be happy with 24 too! Just with a nice breeze, not humidity.

It's humidity I cant 'do' - a nice sunny day is always welcome! 

High humidity is the best feeling! Love it. 

Just now, Metwatch said:

I can assure you by mid next week the gardens will be more than dry enough to mow the lawn, it'll probably be dry enough by Sunday to do mine here.

its been sunny here all day but there is still rainwater on the grass and leaves. The garden has become muddy. 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

You can tell the kids are back in school next week right on cue, summer shows its hand

Farmers will be praying for a week of warm dry weather to get the crops dried off and the harvest in.

[Alderc 2.0]

Starting to look good next week. Some nice juicy conditions with dew points nearing 20C and mins in the south maybe holding up to near 20C in places helping make up for the complete lack of oomph in the sun. 

[snowsummer]

17 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:

All I am reporting are what the models are showing but perhaps i am focused on looking at the GFS runs 4 times a day instead of comparing four or five models and looking at the overall pressure trends  . I am not creating my own models but I am generally negative  !  I understand how to read the 500mb and 850 charts and can see what is going to happen when combined with reviewing the jet stream. My preference is for the UK to be under a permanent Azores high and it to never rain but sadly that will never happen. 

Maybe a slight blip NEXT weekend before the azores high puts paid to that and at least a good few more days of dry sunny and warm weather. Fingers crossed at least! 

[WeatherEnthusiast]

3 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Maybe a slight blip NEXT weekend before the azores high puts paid to that and at least a good few more days of dry sunny and warm weather. Fingers crossed at least! 

I didnt look at the end of the run so good that the Azores High pays another visit in two weeks time (though that is in FL) 

1 minute ago, snowsummer said:

Haha. Try spending the day in the garden next week and not getting burnt! I'll  still be putting on the factor 30!

Its the comment from another poster that the sun doesnt have any power at this time of year.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Buzz said:

You and a few other posters seriously need to stop looking at possible negatives all of the time. Do your best to enjoy what you have instead of looking for the breakdowns in any nice weather, particularly if said breakdowns are over a week away.

Discussion of the model output is of course what this thread is for, but you need to learn to look at ALL of the model output and not concentrate on one run from one model to prove whatever point you are trying to make at the time. You also need to realise that the further out the model run goes, the less accurate it will be - you'll save your sanity if you only look at general trends across all of the models when looking further ahead.

Think @mushymanroband @johnholmesare objective posters and good role models to the forum.   The best approach is to look at anomoly charts and then come to a consensus.   

The GEFS 6Z ensemble mean doesn't really support a big low, instead it gives the idea of a n/s spilt for next sunday then it gets predominantly ridge orientated unti 16th/17th September nationwide.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

[Wimbledon88]

Looking at some of the latest output it would appear that it's now looking to be a fairly shortlived warm spell coming up, especially for the Midlands northwards.

[WeatherEnthusiast]

Just now, Wimbledon88 said:

Looking at some of the latest output it would appear that it's now looking to be a fairly shortlived warm spell coming up, especially for the Midlands northwards.

This is incorrect we are looking at 10 day warm spell with the peak in the middle of next week across England and Wales.