Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[SqueakheartLW]

36 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

If I'm honest I think winter 2023-24 won't be a million miles away from 2015-16 as we have the niño effect, possibly similar to 2018-19 as well and you can't rule out 2014-15 either.  Think the impending winter will be very similar to all of those winters I have mentioned.

2023/24         EQBO expected          Mod/Strong El Nino expected

2018/19         WQBO                          Weak El Nino

2015/16         WQBO                          Super El Nino

2014/15         EQBO                           Weak El Nino

I'd probably rule out a 2015/16 or 2018/19 based on different Nino strengths and WQBO as well. 2014/15 is the closest match here with the EQBO but only a Weak El Nino. I do believe 2014/15 was the least mild of these 3 winters also.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

It will be the usual this winter.  Wet and mild over here while winter wonderland across the Atlantic 

[Kasim Awan]

EQBO & El Nino is a strong combination.

The recent mostly closely matching winters for this combo.

86/87 - cold
91/92 - mild with a decent January
09/10 - very cold
14/15 - decent for current years

It seems something about an EQBO / El Nino may increase the amount of blocking. I think this may be related to the fact that both these instances can increase pressure on the stratospheric polar vortex zonal flow. The zonal flow is more receptive to easterly input during El Nino years. Looking at this below, we can see that El Nino winters with at least one SSW are a lot colder than La Nina winters with atleast one SSW. 

This mechanism is backed up by (e.g., García-Herrera et al 2006; Garfinkel and Hartmann 2007; Cagnazzo and Manzini 2009; Fletcher and Kushner 2011; Butler and Polvani 2011). The easterly QBO simply raises the potential for stratospheric disturbances whilst helping to break up the zonal flow, of which the stratosphere will be highly receptive to due to the easterly wave trains being more ideally placed due to El Nino. So from an evidence based and scientific literature based perspective there are grounds to say this Winter may just be a lot more interesting than some are proclaiming. I don't usually shout about cold potential before a Winter season but this year I see a need to LEVEL out the bias here at the minute which seems to be strongly in the mild direction.

The only caveat is, this record breakingly warm September, which is strongly linked to mild conditions. As a result, I think a near normal winter is likely this year. Something close to 2014/15 and 2020/21. Near norm temperatures often equate to quite snowy weather at times in the current climate. This is because the increased mild spells dilute the cold signal meaning near normal winters can contain some pretty potent cold snaps. Could be particularly snowy for northern hills and any SSW would have an unusually high probability of descending us into proper Winter.

Image and references from.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-niño-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[LRD]

On 07/10/2023 at 08:02, iceman1991 said:

Everyone going on about seasonal ecm model and others predicting mild preety sure I see on here weren’t all the seasonal models saying a hot summer for this one and it’s been nothing but cold  far from hot I’m down the south to  not having a dig at anyone think people just need to relax a bit not saying we gunna be in for a cold winter just see what happens 

Summer wasn't cold. Each month came in above average. Wasn't June the warmest on record?

But, yeah, it wasn't a classic by any stretch with a particularly rubbish July and if the seasonals predicted a particularly warm summer they ended up being wrong... although they got June right

If we got the equivalent to this summer in winter (but with temp anomalies flipped), I'd more than settle for that - a freezing Dec followed by an average Jan and Feb (and a warm spring/summer 2024)

Edited October 9, 2023 by LRD

[LRD]

On 06/10/2023 at 22:25, northwestsnow said:

Euro heights are becoming almost a permanent fixture in winter.

Kiss goodbye to cold winters if this transpires.. 

It's hard to be optimistic but hope springs eternal !

 

Yes, the Euro High is a feature of our winters that is impossible to ignore. Especially in January. Utterly ruined as a winter month. What have we had - 2 January's since 1987 that have been genuinely cold nationwide (2010 and 2013 - even in the cold 1995-96 winter, it was Dec and Feb that delivered in the south).

Those tropical heights bloat too far north too often

Edited October 9, 2023 by LRD

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, razorgrain said:

It's somewhat odd that we haven't had a repeat of 1989, given how much warmer the climate is compared to back then.

Have made a thread over autumn 2007 if anybody is interested in posting on that thread in the historic weather section.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

35 minutes ago, LRD said:

Summer wasn't cold. Each month came in above average. Wasn't June the warmest on record?

But, yeah, it wasn't a classic by any stretch with a particularly rubbish July and if the seasonals predicted a particularly warm summer they ended up being wrong... although they got June right

If we got the equivalent to this summer in winter (but with temp anomalies flipped), I'd more than settle for that - a freezing Dec followed by an average Jan and Feb (and a warm spring/summer 2024)

People posting unsubstantiated claims with no statistical support here and wanting a dig at stuff, they should read the sensible post mushy made in one of the posts written in the historic weather section.    People should use stats rather than memory and to be honest the summer we had this year overall was pretty average really overall, warmer than average though CET/UK wise.      

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

I see from the EC46 that the stratospheric polar vortex will be popping open its first can of Red Bull of the season during next week. Does this mean that we might expect to see a burst of 'zonal' weather down here a few weeks later (i.e. early November), or is that to vastly oversimplify how these things work?

Ec46 sees the spv strengthening slightly above average through November with the mean vortex centred on the russian side of the Arctic between svaalbard and n Siberia.  

[Don]

7 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

2023/24         EQBO expected          Mod/Strong El Nino expected

2018/19         WQBO                          Weak El Nino

2015/16         WQBO                          Super El Nino

2014/15         EQBO                           Weak El Nino

I'd probably rule out a 2015/16 or 2018/19 based on different Nino strengths and WQBO as well. 2014/15 is the closest match here with the EQBO but only a Weak El Nino. I do believe 2014/15 was the least mild of these 3 winters also.

Yes, winter 2014/15 wasn't too far from average, despite being Atlantic driven.

[Don]

6 hours ago, LRD said:

Yes, the Euro High is a feature of our winters that is impossible to ignore. Especially in January. Utterly ruined as a winter month. What have we had - 2 January's since 1987 that have been genuinely cold nationwide (2010 and 2013 - even in the cold 1995-96 winter, it was Dec and Feb that delivered in the south).

Those tropical heights bloat too far north too often

Not to all areas in the south!

[Beanz]

6 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

People posting unsubstantiated claims with no statistical support here and wanting a dig at stuff, they should read the sensible post mushy made in one of the posts written in the historic weather section.    People should use stats rather than memory and to be honest the summer we had this year overall was pretty average really overall, warmer than average though CET/UK wise.      

You’re becoming quite repetitive.  People can post their views as they see fit, and not everything must be backed up by statistics - this is a discussion forum, not a scientific thesis.  

[damianslaw]

Winter 14-15 gaining mention. A winter with frequent polar maritime blasts here, nothing especially cold, just consistently chilly, with wet snow sticking at times but again nothing particularly measurable.

Its a winter I remain rather indifferent to, but one of our more wintry ones since 12-13, bettered by 17-18 and 20-21.

[sundog]

Was winter 14/15 the sunniest on record for parts of the UK and Ireland? It was a winter that for all the pm air I was always waiting for something more substantial to happen which never did. Frustrating. 

[summer blizzard]

53 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, winter 2014/15 wasn't too far from average, despite being Atlantic driven.

While it did feature a persistent +AO, it did feature high pressure either west or at mid-lattitudes which meant that while the hemispheric pattern was very different, our experience was basically a poor man's versions of winter 06. Weak north westerlies or blocking until quite late on. We did get a pretty zonal spell around early January though.

[summer blizzard]

32 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Like hot summers. Cold winters are few and far between. Brilliant summers for me 75 76 83 84 89 90 94 95 96 03 06 18 22. Winters don't etch on my memory so much but I remember 79 81 87 95 09 as being cold. Maybe missed one or two. 

The question is essentially how you define cold winter's. 

05/06, 08/09 and 12/13 were all cool.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

The question is essentially how you define cold winter's. 

05/06, 08/09 and 12/13 were all cool.

Just my recollection. It's not scientific. 

[summer blizzard]

Just now, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Just my recollection. It's not scientific. 

Essentially it just depends where you set the bar. 

Winter 09/10 was cold throughout and the coldest winter in 31 years with a sub-zero mid Dec to mid-Jan period. 

Equally though, Dec 10 and Jan 13 were exceptional. 

More recently, Dec 22 was the coldest since 2010 and the first half was the 12th coldest on record. Jan 21 had the first half of January the coldest since 2010. The second half the coldest since 2013. The first half of February 21 was the coldest since 2012. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Essentially it just depends where you set the bar. 

Winter 09/10 was cold throughout and the coldest winter in 31 years with a sub-zero mid Dec to mid-Jan period. 

Equally though, Dec 10 and Jan 13 were exceptional. 

More recently, Dec 22 was the coldest since 2010 and the first half was the 12th coldest on record. Jan 21 had the first half of January the coldest since 2010. The second half the coldest since 2013. The first half of February 21 was the coldest since 2012. 

Ok. Fair enough. 

[WYorksWeather]

32 minutes ago, Beanz said:

You’re becoming quite repetitive.  People can post their views as they see fit, and not everything must be backed up by statistics - this is a discussion forum, not a scientific thesis.  

There is a difference between opinions and facts. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and value judgements, but what nobody is entitled to do is to expect to say things that are flat out wrong, and expect nobody to say anything in response.

'All the seasonal models predicted a hot summer and its been nothing but cold' is a statement of fact, not an opinion, and it happens to be an incorrect one.

 

[raz.org.rain]

I haven't seen this hypothetical discussed so far, in which we do get northern blocking scenarios but they completely miss the British Isles. Of course, this would occur in October and not the dead of winter.

 

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 suggests a cool down is on the way ..

nice to see mainland europe cooling too.

 

[Beanz]

7 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

There is a difference between opinions and facts. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and value judgements, but what nobody is entitled to do is to expect to say things that are flat out wrong, and expect nobody to say anything in response.

'All the seasonal models predicted a hot summer and its been nothing but cold' is a statement of fact, not an opinion, and it happens to be an incorrect one.

 

Thanks, I’m already aware of the difference.  

Edited October 10, 2023 by Beanz

[BruenSryan]

9 hours ago, sundog said:

Was winter 14/15 the sunniest on record for parts of the UK and Ireland? It was a winter that for all the pm air I was always waiting for something more substantial to happen which never did. Frustrating. 

Was certainly here in the east of Ireland. 1962-63 and later 2017-18 were sunnier for the UK as a whole, I believe England had its 2nd sunniest behind only 1999-2000. A very frustrating season indeed. Though I wasn't on the scene back then, I've read back about all the hype surrounding it and the "October Pattern Index" which 2014 was very negative and provided hopes for the winter AO/NAO. 2014-15 was one of the most positive NAOs on record in the end. Least it was more seasonable than some of the warmth we've seen. Think your region had a fair amount of snow from the NW'ly on 1st March 2015. Remember a rare mention of Dublin and snow by Peter Gibbs on the BBC forecast as the Six Nations was on in the Aviva that day.

Edited October 10, 2023 by BruenSryan

[sundog]

42 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Was certainly here in the east of Ireland. 1962-63 and later 2017-18 were sunnier for the UK as a whole, I believe England had its 2nd sunniest behind only 1999-2000. A very frustrating season indeed. Though I wasn't on the scene back then, I've read back about all the hype surrounding it and the "October Pattern Index" which 2014 was very negative and provided hopes for the winter AO/NAO. 2014-15 was one of the most positive NAOs on record in the end. Least it was more seasonable than some of the warmth we've seen. Think your region had a fair amount of snow from the NW'ly on 1st March 2015. Remember a rare mention of Dublin and snow by Peter Gibbs on the BBC forecast as the Six Nations was on in the Aviva that day.

Can't remember early March 2015. The first few days of Feb were the coldest of the winter. Cold snap with frost.

[LRD]

10 hours ago, Beanz said:

You’re becoming quite repetitive.  People can post their views as they see fit, and not everything must be backed up by statistics - this is a discussion forum, not a scientific thesis.  

Yes, people can post views as they see fit but aren't those views, posted on a public internet forum, allowed to be challenged by others with a different view, too?