Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep that is true ..

Interesting times.

Clusters will reveal more..

Mike's just posted the clusters - got to say they are a bit of a disappointment compared to the shift from EC46!

Edit: actually, on 2nd look, clusters looks fairly representative of the first 2 weeks of EC46

Edited November 13, 2023 by LRD

[northwestsnow]

Just now, LRD said:

Mike's just posted the clusters - got to say they are a bit of a disappointment compared to the shift from EC46!

Cluster 1 looks very much like EC46.

[LRD]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Cluster 1 looks very much like EC46.

Yeah just edited my original post. On 2nd look clusters do look representative of the first 2 weeks on 46

Edited November 13, 2023 by LRD

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

Mike's just posted the clusters - got to say they are a bit of a disappointment compared to the shift from EC46!

Edit: actually, on 2nd look, clusters looks fairly representative of the first 2 weeks of EC46

They are an upgrade on this mornings, in the T192-T240 timeframe, I would say.  Both on the clusters and generally on the models today, the signal for cold is still getting stronger, little by little, I reckon.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12z ensemble mean

Not much to be gleaned from the ensemble mean at the moment but one to watch over coming days. Op a bit on its own at the end 

[bluearmy]

The trend is your friend …..

[Bartlett High]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cluster 1 looks very much like EC46.

Division Bell?

[TSNWK]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The trend is your friend …..

You and your trends I mused earlier a slight niggle with ecm day 10 being similar to yesterday's day 10 and chasing that pot of gold.  You seeing any signs of winter being reeled in on this chase?

[Cambrian]

Another extension in the Atlantic ridge signal on this evening’s regime chart, from the 23rd yesterday to the 25th today. Another promising trend.

  

The ridge is now showing clearly on the 12z weekly heights anomalies chart for 20-27 November, so the setup might not be that transient at all, could last a fair few days. Looks ripe for a succession of low pressure systems to move out of Greenland down into Europe to merge with the base of the Scandinavian trough, very prevalent in the darker hatching and the southward buckle in the contour lines. Good chart.

[Uncertainty]

7 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Another extension in the Atlantic ridge signal on this evening’s regime chart, from the 23rd yesterday to the 25th today. Another promising trend.

  

The ridge is now showing clearly on the 12z weekly heights anomalies chart for 20-27 November, so the setup might not be that transient at all, could last a fair few days. Looks ripe for a succession of low pressure systems to move out of Greenland down into Europe to merge with the base of the Scandinavian trough, very prevalent in the darker hatching and the southward buckle in the contour lines. Good chart.

the red borders in the run up to Xmas  

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

You and your trends I mused earlier a slight niggle with ecm day 10 being similar to yesterday's day 10 and chasing that pot of gold.  You seeing any signs of winter being reeled in on this chase?

Looking good for a tpv disruption and a fairly brief cold blast for nw europe but i’d currently plump for an early taste of winter proper in Eastern Europe rather than us.  And I feel that we will then see the Greenland vortex firing up early dec  - but that may not sustain too long. 

[andy989]

Is the chase on already? Can’t believe it’s that time of year again. Genuine question, is there anything that makes this different to all the early garden paths of previous years? If that can be answered then I’ll join the chase. If there’s nothing that makes it different then I’ll wait for multi day cross model agreement at day 5 before my ears perk up, been stung too many times to start this early. 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Is the chase on already? Can’t believe it’s that time of year again. Genuine question, is there anything that makes this different to all the early garden paths of previous years? If that can be answered then I’ll join the chase. If there’s nothing that makes it different then I’ll wait for multi day cross model agreement at day 5 before my ears perk up, been stung too many times to start this early. 

A November chase is so low risk that you may as well get on board 

if it fails then you’ve still got the whole of winter to recover ! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

A November chase is so low risk that you may as well get on board 

if it fails then you’ve still got the whole of winter to suffer! 

I fixed your post ...

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Like we did in November/December 2010 when the models counted down with barely a wobble?!

They certainly did. Alas, this looks no end of November 2010 unfortunately but should still bring in something more seasonal. 

[CoventryWeather]

The hov-moller this evening. 

That's also interested in the northerly. I wonder when the 09/10 winter vibes start becoming a thing again - didn't it have something similar like this that forecasted?

[blizzard81]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking good for a tpv disruption and a fairly brief cold blast for nw europe but i’d currently plump for an early taste of winter proper in Eastern Europe rather than us.  And I feel that we will then see the Greenland vortex firing up early dec  - but that may not sustain too long. 

Agreed. Glorified toppler looks odds on but it is always nice to see one in the second half of November.......It can bode well for the rest of the winter. Sorry I just had to

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

Does anyone know why we'd suddenly get a pressure rise in the Atlantic, after that seemingly having been impossible for weeks on end?

When the Straospheric Polar Vortex is strong coupled with an MJO cycle in either neutral or Zone 3 this creates amplification in the pacific sector into Northern Canada into the pole. This then creates troughing (low pressure east of this high pressure) which can then given the right strength and orientation drive High pressure into Greenland. This then can create a cross polar flow and cold arctic weather down the eastern side of Greenland. The SPV isn’t usually our friend but on this occasion it’s a good thing to get a record breaking polar vortex if we’re in November and the tropics are in a state to drive the jet stream north up to Canada

[Don]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

They certainly did. Alas, this looks no end of November 2010 unfortunately but should still bring in something more seasonal. 

Late November was exceptional, so to get something seasonal with perhaps a little snow for some would be great!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Late November was exceptional, so to get something seasonal with perhaps a little snow for some would be great!

It would seem like a miracle these days

[blizzard81]

My love-in with the ecm control run continues unabated this evening. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

It would seem like a miracle these days

If you suggested we were to get a late November/December 2010 twenty years ago, I would have said it would be nigh on impossible with GW. I thought the early February 2009 cold spell was our limit at the time, but 11 months later proved otherwise lol! 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Don said:

If you suggested we were to get a late November/December 2010 twenty years ago, I would have said it would be nigh on impossible with GW. I thought the early February 2009 cold spell was our limit at the time, but 11 months later proved otherwise lol! 

The weather will make fools of most!  

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

My love-in with the ecm control run continues unabated this evening. 

White christmas lovers would be happy if we were a month on.. 

[Downburst]

I’ll be dammed if the 18z doesn’t show North Pole heights at the end of the run same as previous two runs. These arctic heights obviously correlate to David Cameron being in high office, last time he took the oath was 2010, so it’s pretty much settled other than where one gets snow chains and a copy of Rihannas greatest hits.

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Blessed Weather
Off-topic and overly political content removed.