Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[sundog]

20 minutes ago, That ECM said:

There has been numerous. 
 

December 2012 was just an incredible run by the ecm which I took my name from but the one which stands out most was the eastly that was modelled by all down to T72 and the met had said was coming and by the morning it was gone. Can’t remember the year. 
 

hence T120 is only for fun T72 isn’t a done deal and less that T24 for snow clarity.  

I think the Yr an easterly got down to T72 and then was gone was Feb 2007.

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. oops. 

A seismic shift this afternoon towards a very interesting spell of weather with the EC46 also finally getting in on the action.

Lets hone in on the details.. How cold and how much snow still needs to be answered!

EC46 reverts to mild in the longer term but the fact that it didn't pick up on the developments that we're currently seeing* until a couple of days back, we can't invest much confidence in the model in the long term

 

 

*not yet verified of course

[terrier]

Surely that wishful thinking on those temps looking at tonight’s ouput. Must be old data

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Surely that wishful thinking on those temps looking at tonight’s ouput. Must be old data

Just typical BBC and their Mild Luvvies. They think 8 is freezing  

[Met4Cast]

Just a thought.. but.. 

Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective. 

But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!

[The Enforcer]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Now leave it. Some haven’t recovered.

At 10 days out I am not surprised by that. Haven't there been some 10-day ECM charts this week showing similar to the top one that are 'probably' going to end up closer to the top one?

[Northwest NI]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Just a thought.. but.. 

Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective. 

But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!

*Ramp Alert*

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Anyone posted the clusters?

Here goes and blocking is becoming a serious player!

A few things to watch out for in the days ahead on here.

1....Those uppers just ain't good enough.

2.Its all gone a bit West based.

3.If it does not snow in my backyard then what's the point.

4. Your at 400m so you should be OK.

5. Dam that pesky shortwave.

6..scratching my head here as the teleconnections don't allow this kind of thing to happen.

7. If this breaks down now that's it til next Winter.

8. Dam those Azores Heights.

9. I know the models look great but the met aint having any of it.

You get my drift....as me old nana used to say...matty get the cold dug in and the goods will surely follow

Edited November 22, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[bluearmy]

All three ens suites show a lack of Canadian tpv end week two. Eps and geps are firmly Siberia whilst the gefs are just the Asian side of the pole. and this is likely not yet reflecting any consequences of the predicted canadian warming .

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Anyone posted the clusters?

Here goes and blocking is becoming a serious player!

A few things to watch out for in the days and ahead on here.

1....Those uppers just ain't good enough.

2.Its all gone a bit West based.

3.If it does not snow in my backyard then what's the point.

4. Your at 400m so you should be OK.

5. Dam that pesky shortwave.

6..scratching my head here as the teleconnections don't allow this kind of thing to happen.

You get my drift....as me old nana used to say...matty get the cold dug in and the goods will surely follow

“Winters over”

[CoventryWeather]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Just a thought.. but.. 

Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective. 

But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!

Just shows we are all capable of making mistakes - look at the long range forecasts for December, they are showing heavily zonal. Doubt that's going to transpire now.

[Jamie M]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Just a thought.. but.. 

Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective. 

But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!

I expect December 2015 will now quickly return 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Just a thought.. but.. 

Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective. 

But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!

If something significantly cold and wintry develops, it'd be an interesting study in understanding what drove the pattern if it wasn't the teleconnections. Or if it was the teleconnections behaving in an unusual way (which, if I've read the post properly, Tamara seemed to suggest), then what was it about their behaviour that flipped things

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Surely that wishful thinking on those temps looking at tonight’s ouput. Must be old data

That’ll be the ECM 0z.

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

“Winters over”

That one should trigger an automatic ban until March.

[Chesil View]

Just now, LRD said:

If something significantly cold and wintry develops, it'd be an interesting study in understanding what drove the pattern if it wasn't the teleconnections. Or if it was the teleconnections behaving in an unusual way (which, if I've read the post properly, Tamara seemed to suggest), then what was it about their behaviour that flipped things

it could of course be a teleconnection that we haven't yet discovered or a new one brought about by climate change.

[Bats32]

Just now, Chesil View said:

it could of course be a teleconnection that we haven't yet discovered or a new one brought about by climate change.

A butterfly flapping its wings in Australia!

[Premiere Neige]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Anyone posted the clusters?

Here goes and blocking is becoming a serious player!

A few things to watch out for in the days ahead on here.

1....Those uppers just ain't good enough.

2.Its all gone a bit West based.

3.If it does not snow in my backyard then what's the point.

4. Your at 400m so you should be OK.

5. Dam that pesky shortwave.

6..scratching my head here as the teleconnections don't allow this kind of thing to happen.

You get my drift....as me old nana used to say...matty get the cold dug in and the goods will surely follow

1, 2, 5 and 6 have already been mentioned today!  

[minus10]

Wow..!!

[Tamara]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Flicking through the EPS at day 10 and I've picked out the best ones, but most of the suite is solidly blocked and cold

There is your NW Europe *high impact weather* Good examples of what I was describing & suggesting possible earlier. 

At range the modelling will not pick up on features developing along the thermal boundary. Ensemble product means will look 'clean'. Expect changes to be likely over coming days as the sub tropical jet spawns low pressure areas across the evolving -ve NAO region

Similarities with Dec 22 that is for sure the way this is shaping up. Some interesting weather down here too then of a different kind to the UK.

[Mark wheeler]

23 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes it was but not the failed easterly down to T72. Anyway best leave it as the mods will be unhappy.

 

lets hope this gets there and we don’t need to add to the failed pile.

Yes you are right, I stand corrected, biggest fail for me was that 72hours out on all models. Sorry to derail.

[The Enforcer]

9 minutes ago, sundog said:

I think the Yr an easterly got down to T72 and then was gone was Feb 2007.

Anyone got the T+72 and T+0 charts for that one?

[Howie]

Think we have to accept that we just don't know everything about how our atmosphere works. Meteorologists don't let alone us amateurs. As I said before, major models missed a whole cat 5 hurricane in Mexico just last month. Mother nature has her mysterious ways

[ICE COLD]

49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps!!!!!

Hahaha wondered where you were ? The ECM mean is brilliant by the way . 

[adamgooner]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Win win.. something big does happen and I get to see snow! It all collapses and I get to claim I was right all along 

In all seriousness though - Huge step towards this evolution, the detail remains an absolute mess but that's to be expected at this range. Evidently I have a lot to learn re: background signals & drivers.

Fair play buddy - I was fairly critical of your assessment of Atlantic driven onslaught but great to see like us all we are learning daily and that’s all part of the fun here. I’ve learnt one key thing over the years - we can study background signals, analogues etc all we want but ultimately the weather will do what it wants to do, and the beauty is we never know how quickly our luck (if you like cold /snow) can turn. Very much enjoy your contributions, keep up the good work.