Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Snowman.]

Icon looking quite a bit different from other outputs later on, weaker Greenland high but further East. 

Edited November 25, 2023 by Snowman.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I said Textbook... try drawing a better representation

 

 

 

 

Influence onto phase 3 starts to sneak into consideration 

 

[BartyHater]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Icon looking quite a bit different from other outputs later on, weaker Greenland high but further East. 

Yeah, bit puzzled by the later frames of the 12 ICON which look very different to it's 00 up around the Iceland area, but it's still much cleaner than the 06 GFS in getting next weeks LP well to the east of us by the weekend. Let's just hope the 12GFS drops the limpet Low scenario.

[throwoff]

13 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Stronger blocking so cold would be extended and looks like it would roll over into a direct northerly later on in FI

It’s really getting close to being nailed on territory this.

 

[Notty]

AI model - how is this looking?

Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

---

**ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var...

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by Notty

[lawrenk]

6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

It’s really getting close to being nailed on territory this.

 

You’ve said it now.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Notty said:

AI model - how is this looking?

Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

---

**ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var...

 

There are four AI models viewable on ec website 

[Mcconnor8]

5 minutes ago, Notty said:

AI model - how is this looking?

Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

---

**ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var...

 

This run from a couple of days ago doesn't look like it will be close to the mark at all, but it is a day 10 deterministic chart

[IanT]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Add “Sceuro” and “Griceland”. 

Shannon entropy.

All of these should be subject to hard-coded de-platforming in the same way as "large teapot"...

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, IanT said:

Shannon entropy.

All of these should be subject to hard-coded de-platforming in the same way as "large teapot"...

Personally I love all the variations of descriptions on output adds a bit it colour to what is in essence a very objective matter of fact field…

phasing a little further south so far. A small positive so far.

 

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Personally I love all the variations of descriptions on output adds a bit it colour to what is in essence a very objective matter of fact field…

phasing a little further south so far. A small positive so far.

 

Yeah it is a bit further South but still blows up the low more than the UKMO which has it weaker, harms the amplification around Greenland on the GFS run so hopefully the UKMO/ECM have this one. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS is still making more of this low than UKMO at T96:

UKMO looks better at this stage.  GFS is further south than 6z, so hopefully it shouldn’t all unravel like that run!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO 120 is gorgeous!

[That ECM]

T120 ukmo

[BartyHater]

12GFS unfortunately looks intent on following its 06 cousin in blowing up the LP over Ireland and then glueing it to the UK later next week - any eastward movement looks as if it will be painfully slow again as we head towards next weekend.

[sheikhy]

Improvements on gfs early on!ukmo is a beauty at 120 hours!!!!

[MJB]

UK 120 

GFS 120 

Similar set up but quite different .....................if you know what I mean

Edited November 25, 2023 by MJB

[Met4Cast]

Subtle improvements on the 12z GFS but doesn't quite go all the way, at least it's heading in the right direction. UKMO is very, very nice.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Improvements on gfs early on!ukmo is a beauty at 120 hours!!!!

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

12GFS unfortunately looks intent on following its 06 cousin in blowing up the LP over Ireland and then glueing it to the UK later next week - any eastward movement looks as if it will be painfully slow again as we head towards next weekend.

Frustratingly I have to agree..the uppers are ever milder at 132 than 06z. I refuse to post the chart

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Frustratingly I have to agree..the uppers are ever milder at 132 than 06z. I refuse to post the chart

It is because while the low is more South it actually deepens more than the 06z so impacting the uppers even more, but as almost every other model still doesn't do this i'm not too worried about the GFS right now due to its tendencies for this anyway.

 

And when UKMO T+144 looks like this then I'm happy.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[Derecho]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Frustratingly I have to agree..the uppers are ever milder at 132 than 06z. I refuse to post the chart

The thing is the GFS is just a very small variation of the same pattern it is definitely feasible but I'm leaning towards the colder options.

It is a very messy pattern with the UK stuck under an upper trough. All a bit chaotic

[MJB]

UK 144 nothing coming at us from the West, slack winds and cold 

[sheikhy]

Very very good start to the evening!!!ukmo if brilliant!!gfs has nudged the low further south aswell!!it keep doing that slowly slowly!!!

[Ali1977]

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