Storm Babet

[John88B]

6 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Looks like we’ll be setting new records for the River Don at Sheffield tomorrow. 6.2 meters expected tomorrow afternoon. 
 

The highest recorded to this date was 4.4m back in 2007. I think a lot of places in Yorkshire are going to be having a tough few days ahead. 

If my memory serves me right wasn't Sheffield hit by severe flooding a few years back with people living in temporary caravans for ages afterwards.

Let's hope there's no repeat of that.

[Northwest NI]

Has the term “biblical” been wheeled out yet? We really are in trouble if that happens.

[Jo Farrow]

I ventured out and got soaked, a raindrop landed on the lens near the end and sent the video all 'soft-focus' although the crashing waves come into better focus, strangely. It was wild by the Lothian coast.

SEPA  -"A SEVERE FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Brechin. This means that extensive flooding is expected in Brechin. River levels in the South Esk will rise throughout Thursday into Friday morning, and are predicted to peak higher than those experienced in November 2022.
There is a possibility that the defences may be overtopped on Thursday late evening. "
Rest centres Brechin Community Campus, Montrose Sports Centre, Forfar Community Campus. Further information will be on Angus Council's website and staff will be on the ground to provide information

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Paul
Changed video link.

[Metwatch]

5 hours ago, Eskimo said:

GFS puts the main risk for tomorrow in the Midlands. Up to 100mm. 

12z GFS continuing to show ridiculous totals here, the wettest day in Coventry is 72.3mm from December 1900. The wettest October day had 53mm for reference. 

I think the uncertainty of which sees those very high amounts is a danger in itself which could catch out a lot of people commuting, or living near rivers.

[parhelion]

ARPEGE 12z accumulations in line with the latest Met Office warnings. Looks awful for here tomorrow, and with those river projections @Josh Rubioposted earlier, there is potential for some really serious impact here.

[The PIT]

57 minutes ago, John88B said:

If my memory serves me right wasn't Sheffield hit by severe flooding a few years back with people living in temporary caravans for ages afterwards.

Let's hope there's no repeat of that.

2007 and a lesser extent some years ago https://www.sheffieldweather.net/The_Sheffield_Floods.htm

Actually the council this time haven't been clearing the gullies at all so if we do get the rain run of will cause a lot of local flooding ragardless of what the rivers do. However unlike June 2007 the month has been on the dry side here so the catchment areas should absord some of the rain.

Although with predicted values it won't take long for the cathment areas to be overrun. Also just thinking the council have closed the side roads off you could use to get round the floods.

We've now got two warnings a yellow and amber is that higher level than red or inbetween the two.

Edited October 19, 2023 by The PIT

[weatherobsuk]

Areas downhill of Kinder & Bleaklow are prone to flooding especially near the rives Irwell & Goyt along with Sheffield on the other side of the peaks, something to watch out for as south/west Manchester might not be in the direct 'amber' zone but could see the results from the rainfall to the east. Here in Whaley we'll no doubt be having preparation plans for the next 48hr regarding the Toddbrook Pumps and workings on the dam.

[Josh Rubio]

I have a feeling the Met Office will now be playing catch up in regards to updating and pushing further warnings out, as we may see more rainfall than anticipated on the charts for certain areas. 

[Metwatch]

River South Esk, the bridge was dry a few hours ago.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, parhelion said:

ARPEGE 12z accumulations in line with the latest Met Office warnings. Looks awful for here tomorrow, and with those river projections @Josh Rubioposted earlier, there is potential for some really serious impact here.

Could be the biggest rainfall event in Yorkshire since June 2007. Maybe even exceeding it.

[Fiona Robertson]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

Has the term “biblical” been wheeled out yet? We really are in trouble if that happens.

Unfortunately, I wheeled it out on Tuesday when I was describing the rain Scotland got on 7th/8th October...sorry.

[ThundersnowDays]

1 hour ago, parhelion said:

ARPEGE 12z accumulations in line with the latest Met Office warnings. Looks awful for here tomorrow, and with those river projections @Josh Rubioposted earlier, there is potential for some really serious impact here.

 worrying for Lincolnshire / The Fens as well, unusual amounts for that area!

[ChezWeather]

Are we really looking at 2007 level of flooding in this region? I've been majorly out of the loop with this one so other than seeing the amber warning I'm clueless 

[Northwest NI]

Unusually quiet on here despite the probable scale of this event

[The PIT]

17 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Are we really looking at 2007 level of flooding in this region? I've been majorly out of the loop with this one so other than seeing the amber warning I'm clueless 

Well if got 150 mm it will be worse. If it's 50mm or less probably just local flooding.

The flood defences round meadowhall will only built up to 2007 levels was a bit silly so meadowhall will be likely to be wrecked if the forecast comes of.

Edited October 19, 2023 by The PIT

[Paul]

Latest from Nick:

Storm Babet and Storm Aline - two storms impacting western Europe to end the week

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Storm Babet is here and will bring persistent and heavy rain to parts of the UK to end the week, particularly NE Scotland - where a red warning is in force. Also Storm Aline further south will bring severe weather impacts to...

 

[IanT]

9 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Unusually quiet on here despite the probable scale of this event

It’s not taking place in SE England…

[ANYWEATHER]

It'll be down to now casting.  Models still have not a clue about where the worst of the rain is going to be tommorow? 

[The PIT]

Interesting just watched the met office forecast and they not being drawn into rainfall totals. If the totals modelled are correct I would have thought a red warning should be in place.

[parhelion]

18 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well if got 150 mm it will be worse. If it's 50mm or less probably just local flooding.

The flood defences round meadowhall will only built up to 2007 levels was a bit silly so meadowhall will be likely to be wrecked if the forecast comes of.

I've read that the crazy high River Don projection is a bit anomalous and dubious compared to the estimations from other hotspots across the city

[The PIT]

Just now, parhelion said:

I've read that the crazy high River Don projection is a bit anomalous and dubious compared to the estimations from other hotspots across the city

In the past they have been spot on.  Pity they don't show them for the River Sheaf. One thing if the rainfall amounts are correct the sheaf will flood at Heeley bridge which it didn't in 2007. It was the run off from the hills that caused the flooding and the reason why I know it didn't come over was because I was there and I checked with the land lady whether it came over after I left and it flood prevention the council did worked. However they undid all the good work as they didn't bother unblocking any drains for several years before hand.

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Interesting just watched the met office forecast and they not being drawn into rainfall totals. If the totals modelled are correct I would have thought a red warning should be in place.

Arome and Arpege both showing over 100mm here.

[matty40s]

Storm Aline in Madrid..

 

[Scuba steve]

3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Storm Aline in Madrid..

 

Often wondered why the don’t have a  slight rise on the entrances to subways sure it would help

[mountain shadow]

41 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Unusually quiet on here despite the probable scale of this event

I think it will be plenty busy in the morning.