Storm Babet

[ajpdandc]

48 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Worth also bearing in mind is that it will be coming up against the tide which will be possibly higher than forecast due to the wind. Within the Strathmore valley however there are towns that will be at risk, Brechin,Forfar and Montrose where water could pile up in the basin with nowhere to go

Brechiner here - the South Esk could be a major problem. The flooding last November, when the river got to 3.5m, a record by about 40cm, was at least in part caused by some of the flood defence pumps not coming on, but the forecast up until midday Friday shows about 30 hours of heavy rain…. If the river gets to 4m all bets are off, as the main flood wall will be overtopped. Fingers crossed for all living down by the river that it’s not as bad as expected.

[Rammie]

Midleton, Co Cork. 

Note the car roof, and that front door on the house on the right. 

[josh-weather]

Wow, that's really bad

[MP-R]

Persistent moderate rain here now, and flat calm.

[sorepaw1]

4 hours ago, Derecho said:

They should put an extra tab on the top to cycle through wind and rain etc. only... because when all the different types of warnings start to overlap each other it becomes very confusing.

Hope your going to be ok in Hull

Certainly hope it's not a repeat of 2007 for the Hull area.

Take care stay safe. 

[Nick L]

Really should be warnings out for central, southern and eastern England for Friday IMO. Really quite a nasty rain event possible, soils will be saturated over the next couple of days.

[Rammie]

Just now, Nick L said:

Really should be warnings out for central, southern and eastern England for Friday IMO. Really quite a nasty rain event possible, soils will be saturated over the next couple of days.

We did have a warning, but I think it was cancelled.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Rammie said:

We did have a warning, but I think it was cancelled.

There's been nothing for Friday yet, models have only come to agreement over last night.

[Rammie]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

There's been nothing for Friday yet, models have only come to agreement over last night.

Yesterday we had warnings for Wed, Thurs Fri and sat. They now seem to be gone .

[daveinSB]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Really should be warnings out for central, southern and eastern England for Friday IMO. Really quite a nasty rain event possible, soils will be saturated over the next couple of days.

There's a yellow warning for the south east, unless it's been cancelled?

[Derecho]

39 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Hope your going to be ok in Hull

Certainly hope it's not a repeat of 2007 for the Hull area.

Take care stay safe. 

I think we should avoid the worst of it hopefully. Friday morning is a big source of uncertainty however.

It won't be like 2007 here thankfully but the forecast for eastern Scotland is as grim as it gets.

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, daveinSB said:

There's a yellow warning for the south east, unless it's been cancelled?

It's for a tiny portion of the area likely to be affected, I simply don't understand why that small area has been included and not other areas which look to be just as badly if not worse affected. Every single model has the majority of the southern half of England seeing 30-50mm at least.

One of the major flaws in the way that the Met Office do warnings is that they have a window between 10-11am where they issue warnings and then very rarely make updates outside of those hours. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Nick L

[Metwatch]

Minimum pressure / centre of Babet making landfall now.

[The PIT]

Radar suggesting the front much weaker than expected.

[Atmogenic]

pretty wet out there at the moment but just seems like a typical storm to me 

[alexisj9]

Don't care what the radar is saying I'm out in this, and it's heavy as, anyone stuck under this for hours is in trouble, never mind days. 

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:

pretty wet out there at the moment but just seems like a typical storm to me 

The wind hasn't been that bad down here on the south coast with 43.5mph measured at Portland earlier, and it's now falling. The amount of pressure drop here has lessened so the core, which has some heavier pulses of rain within it is just moving over us. So far 17.6mm of rain so nothing massive by any means, but the interesting satellite view shows the source of the moisture from over Europe

[ANYWEATHER]

Now looking that the southeast will fair best of Friday, other areas getting more rainfall...

[matty40s]

 

[Nick F]

12z GFS has a different take on Friday's low coming up from France, much further W than 06z run. It brings 2 areas with accumulations of 100mm+ over east  Hampshire/ W Sussex & another over E Monmouthshire/ W Gloucestershire.

UKV trending a similar track.

But the track probably not nailed yet. The formation of the low over N France Friday morning perhaps senstive to the position of the left exit of the jet streak blasting north over France. IMO the low forms in this developmental area of the jet where upper winds diverge and surface winds converge to fill the void. But position of this still to be resolved. 

This low looks to deepen quite rapidly too while loitering somewhere over S England or SE/EA.

 

[matty40s]

 

[alexisj9]

Even impacts here, A2 blocked people still waiting for a 15, that were at this stop a while ago, I hope my 64 comes.

It's here now, good, people have been waiting for a 15 for an hour and a half though, normally every 20 mins. Hopefully will be one soon. Accident has block the a2, might have happened anyway, but knowing drivers, it's probably wet rd related, or wind related. Blowing different, lorries might not be warned in the right places.

Edited October 18, 2023 by alexisj9

[Scott Ingham]

Higher res models like the arpege have fridays rain much further north and east than the gfs. This disagreement until sorted out is for me the reason for any amber upgrades for either north east england or central southern eastern england.

Id expect another area of concern to be showing by tomorrows warning updates.

Somewhere else has the potential for 80-100mm of rain quite widely in a 24/36 hour period! 

Quite some period of weather this is!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

46 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

pretty wet out there at the moment but just seems like a typical storm to me 

That’s why the warnings are for North  eastern Scotland and not Kent.

[Geordiesnow]

48 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Don't care what the radar is saying I'm out in this, and it's heavy as, anyone stuck under this for hours is in trouble, never mind days. 

And that is the issue, it's the persistence of the rain, won't be heavy all the time in one area but it should be persistent across NE Scotland.

Looks like the rain further south could be more potant but track and intensity is uncertain. Plus the 12Z runs have the centre of the low further west so a right squeeze on the isobars for more parts of the UK, could be some lively gusts west of the Pennines.