Storm Babet

[parhelion]

34 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

For context; the last RED rain warning was issued February 16th 2020 for storm Dennis, before that you have to go back to December 2015 for a red warning. 

Parts of E Scotland could see >250mm over 3 days if the 15z UKV is anything to go by. I’d be surprised if the Met didn’t go red given the outputs this evening. 

ARPEGE has similar totals for E Scotland as well so the agreement is there for a serious event. Over two inches across a significant portion of N and E England, too.

[Nick123]

Looking at latest bbc forecasts is ne England that gets most of the rain (the graphics) yet the Amber warning is ne Scotland. Wonder If it changes or atleast includes the NE England tomorrow?

[parhelion]

7 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Looking at latest bbc forecasts is ne England that gets most of the rain (the graphics) yet the Amber warning is ne Scotland. Wonder If it changes or atleast includes the NE England tomorrow?

Models show E Scotland as the hot spot for the highest rainfall totals. Not beyond the realms of possibility that we go red warning up there and perhaps a more localised amber for other high-total areas.

[Nick123]

I reckon an Amber for the NE is fairly likely. Worrying for Eastern Scotland though

[Metwatch]

Impacts already starting.

[Frostillicus]

Hi guys. Been out the loop recently. Anyone know how the north west is expected to fare with this event? I have a friend that is supposed to collect a couch tomorrow evening and she's concerned with how the wind might affect her van due to it being higher than a car if you get my meaning. Much appreciated 

[Ross90]

Wet but probably not extreme, winds probably won't be an issue away from exposed areas although a large area is covered by a yellow wind warning.

[Met4Cast]

43 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Wet but probably not extreme, winds probably won't be an issue away from exposed areas although a large area is covered by a yellow wind warning.

A months worth of rain in the space of 2-3 days is pretty extreme in my book. Parts of eastern Scotland could see 3 day rainfall totals exceeding >200mm with the more extreme runs suggesting >250mm+. 

This, into an area that doesn't really see significant amounts of rainfall very often, it's unusual to see so much moisture piling in from the east. >100mm expected to fall fairly widely within a 24hr period with those totals doubling over a 3 day period.  Personally, that goes into the extreme category. 

[lottiekent]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

A months worth of rain in the space of 2-3 days is pretty extreme in my book. Parts of eastern Scotland could see 3 day rainfall totals exceeding >200mm with the more extreme runs suggesting >250mm+. 

This, into an area that doesn't really see significant amounts of rainfall very often, it's unusual to see so much moisture piling in from the east. >100mm expected to fall fairly widely within a 24hr period with those totals doubling over a 3 day period.  Personally, that goes into the extreme category. 

And this on top of what fell on large parts of Scotland recently too. I imagine the ground is pretty water logged already.

[Josh Rubio]

11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

A months worth of rain in the space of 2-3 days is pretty extreme in my book. Parts of eastern Scotland could see 3 day rainfall totals exceeding >200mm with the more extreme runs suggesting >250mm+. 

This, into an area that doesn't really see significant amounts of rainfall very often, it's unusual to see so much moisture piling in from the east. >100mm expected to fall fairly widely within a 24hr period with those totals doubling over a 3 day period.  Personally, that goes into the extreme category. 

I think @Ross90was responding to @Frostillicus question, who was enquiring about the North West of England. 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Josh Rubio

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I think @Ross90was responding to @Frostillicus question, who was enquiring about the North West of England. 

Ah! That makes more sense. 

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, richie3846 said:

In England? I thought the main job was over Eastern Scotland 

The amber warning appears the reflect this reality, that the east of Scotland is quite dry normally 

The met covers England Scotland and Northern Ireland. So have named a storm, and warned a storm in the UK, and yes actually eastern England is also gonna get a lot of rain.

[Ross90]

1 hour ago, Josh Rubio said:

I think @Ross90was responding to @Frostillicus question, who was enquiring about the North West of England. 

I was indeed apologies. I don't like over using quotes as certain other forums I'm on frown on that. 

[richie3846]

5 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

The met covers England Scotland and Northern Ireland. So have named a storm, and warned a storm in the UK, and yes actually eastern England is also gonna get a lot of rain.

As a Welshman, I'm now highly offended by this. . What I meant was that the naming is mainly because of impacts in Scotland this time round. Without the heavier rain in Scotland, I doubt it would be named because of yellow warnings in England. 

[Boydie]

8 hours ago, lottiekent said:

And this on top of what fell on large parts of Scotland recently too. I imagine the ground is pretty water logged already.

Yup, I'm in Fife ground is saturated. I'm back on duty on Monday with the fire service, we were busy last week with the rain. Funny thing is I'm meant to be on a flood response course on Monday and Tuesday. God knows what the water levels are going to be or if its going to be cancelled as I'm sure we will be dealing with the fallout of this for a few days.

[Paul]

Pretty extraordinary rainfall totals showing on the UKV again this morning. 250mm plus in parts of Eastern Scotland and widely above 80-100mm. 

[Met4Cast]

Raw UKV data suggesting >300mm locally over the course of 72hrs. 

This is perhaps the most extreme rainfall event I’ve ever seen modelled. 

[CoventryWeather]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Raw UKV data suggesting >300mm locally over the course of 72hrs. 

This is perhaps the most extreme rainfall event I’ve ever seen modelled. 

Do you think the sea temperatures in the North sea is helping intensify the rainfall? 

[Shaunado]

Met Office's deep dive yesterday gives a fantastic explanation on what makes Babet so unusual and potentially hazardous. Well worth a watch:

 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, richie3846 said:

As a Welshman, I'm now highly offended by this. . What I meant was that the naming is mainly because of impacts in Scotland this time round. Without the heavier rain in Scotland, I doubt it would be named because of yellow warnings in England. 

True, unless they go amber too. Didn't forget about Wales by the way, I'll make sure I write it next time.

[Met4Cast]

I’m told a red warning will soon be issued for parts of eastern Scotland. 

[Dorsetbred]

Still centred over the Brest peninsula

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I’m told a red warning will soon be issued for parts of eastern Scotland. 

It's warranted based on this mornings output, especially given there are cities where impact maybe very bad.

SE undoubtedly gets a yellow for Fri-Sat and will probably go Amber soon if model confidence continues to frow.

[Met4Cast]

Red warning issued. 
 

[Summer Sun]

Red warning issued for Angus and Aberdeenshire

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-10-19&id=6b18061b-8f31-491f-90fc-1369b3168882&details