Storm Babet

[Nick L]

A weirdly small area.

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A weirdly small area.

Confidence I guess, they do still have a broader high impact amber warning. 

[daveinSB]

Warnings removed elsewhere, presumably just while they update them?

[Summer Sun]

I wonder how much snow would have built up had all that rain under the red warning come in another month or 2

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, daveinSB said:

Warnings removed elsewhere, presumably just while they update them?

Possibly. Under the reason for update it says "Warning has been trimmed to Scotland with a separate warning now issued to cover parts of England" however as, yet I can't see anything for England

[Schnee]

Kinda curious what the impact will be for Yorkshire. Busy week of callouts.

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A weirdly small area.

My sister lives in that area, near Kirriemuir and my Mum lives in Dundee.

Looks horrendous.

[Nick L]

...surely they're about to issue something for NE England at the very least?

[richie3846]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

...surely they're about to issue something for NE England at the very least?

I'd think they'll also issue southern England -  Friday now has substantial rain, further West than was thought yesterday. These warnings reflect soil moisture, and many areas are wetter than average for the time of year. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by richie3846

[Nick L]

Just now, richie3846 said:

I'd think they'll also issue southern England -  Friday now has substantial rain, further West than was thought yesterday 

Indeed. I do forecasts for Network Rail and it's all hands on deck updating them this morning. Could see 50mm through London and the SE. Should be warned IMO.

[Fiona Robertson]

34 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A weirdly small area.

I wonder if it's to do with the fact that the area has the river North Esk and the river South Esk flowing through. There's an "Extreme flood alert" for the North Esk. I need to check the tide times...

Edited October 18, 2023 by Fiona Robertson

[emmett garland]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I wonder how much snow would have built up had all that rain under the red warning come in another month or 2

2.2 meters give or take 

[richie3846]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Indeed. I do forecasts for Network Rail and it's all hands on deck updating them this morning. Could see 50mm through London and the SE. Should be warned IMO.

They are probably sorting through the detail as we speak, for England. Give them another half hour, I think we'll have our warnings in place. 

[daveinSB]

Yellow warning for London and the South East for rain on Friday. Also a wind warning up the east coast

[Nick L]

What is that!

[Bartlett High]

A red warning issued for NE Scotland @

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What is that!

To be honest ,no model has got this sorted as regards precipitation.  UKV has changed its precip forecast for Friday from not too bad in the south to now to torrential rain.......

Edited October 18, 2023 by ANYWEATHER

[Fiona Robertson]

High tide times for Montrose,
Wed - 16:50, Thurs - 05:11, 17:27, Fri- 05:56, 18:13.

With the winds coming from the east, they'll be blowing onshore. This area is covered by the amber wind warning so I expect the red area reflects the amount of rain, the catchment area of the two Esks and the 3.7-4.0 high tides expected. The winds might just increase the height of the tides.

Edited to add, that wee area is as flat as a pancake with a heck of a lot of arable land.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Fiona Robertson

[ANYWEATHER]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What is that!

One of the most confusing charts I've seen

[Eskimo]

Is there a reason why they don't issue the warnings all at once? 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

One of the most confusing charts I've seen

Quite worrying we are seeing red warnings for rain so early in the wet season. I guess a symptom of how wet the ground is. The amounts of rain forecast are high, 10 inches, and more such events could cause widespread severe floods this season.

[Derecho]

Looks like an absolute nightmare to forecast this. How often do you get a deep low moving north through the North Sea? The cold air is trying to dig in from Scandi but it looks as though it will be cut off.

One of those scenarios where things can change at very short notice. The UKMO global looks nasty on Friday morning in the SE.

Some big impacts are possible from this.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Derecho

[Met4Cast]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Is there a reason why they don't issue the warnings all at once? 

They discuss & issue warnings alongside various organisations, SEPA for Scotland, Environment Agency for England. 

I can only presume they were initially focussing on Scotland given the red warning and are now shifting focus to issuing/updating warnings for England. 

[Fiona Robertson]

Soz for the number of posts, I've been playing catch-up after chasing a cat to give him his insulin injection. 

Looking at the warning matrix, they take into account the impact as well as the likelyhood. A red is high likelyhood, high impact. I think overnight they've managed to firm up the expected rainfall totals and then taken account of the geography, amber alert for onshore winds and the high tide times. If you look at a wee terrain map,you'll see that the area affected by the red warning is a sittingduck, so to speak. It covers just north of Dundee to Stonehaven and is almost the same shape as the flat arable land in the catchment area of the north and south Esks.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Fiona Robertson

[Summer Sun]

New rain warning issued for parts of England from 6pm tomorrow to 6am Saturday

Having pushed north across the warning area early on Thursday, a band of heavy and persistent rain is expected to slowly edge back southwards across northern England later on Thursday, lasting into Saturday in some areas.

20-40 mm is expected to fall quite widely, though some parts of the North York Moors and Yorkshire Dales could pick up 50-70 mm. In the north of the warning area, especially the higher parts of the North Pennines and Cheviots may locally see in excess of 100 mm of rain through the period. Strong easterly winds may exacerbate the impacts brought about by the heavy rain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-10-21&id=17fbc3ba-ee7c-42f6-a772-46e906148cbe&details