Storm Babet

[richie3846]

25 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

‘The boy who cried wolf’ comes to mind. Do we really need yet another yellow for heavy rain? Is this not just another bog standard autumnal low pressure system for England? 

I don't think we need yellow warnings at all. Dump those, and simply go straight in at amber when required.

[weatherobsuk]

Probably not 'cost-effective' but maybe a traffic light system across the broad of the UK which is then handed down to local authorities & regional press to announce when certain areas are expected to turn Amber/Red. 

The problems with storm naming for the UK is when other countries name the storms ahead of time and the whole system becomes confusing to follow, your average folk aren't interested in what constitutes a Barocyclonic Leaf, Sting-Jet, or Orographic Rainfall, they just want to know if it's going to rain or shine. With a traffic light system they have a easier handle on 'where & when'.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Thunders said:

They should do a precautionary warning system and an now warning system 

Watch and then warn when know like the USA, would be good I think, but people will still misunderstand it.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Josh Rubio said:

‘The boy who cried wolf’ comes to mind. Do we really need yet another yellow for heavy rain? Is this not just another bog standard autumnal low pressure system for England? 

No it really is gonna drop a lot of rain.

[Lynxus]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

No it really is gonna drop a lot of rain.

Hmmm....

The same places get flooded year in year out.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Lynxus said:

Hmmm....

The same places get flooded year in year out.

A weather warning starting tomorrow and finishing on Saturday, that's a lot of rain for those areas, and yes there will be flooding, that's the reason for the warnings.

[Dundeeguy]

3 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Hmmm....

The same places get flooded year in year out.

We don’t tend to really get flooded too much in certain areas of eastern Scotland but last week we had amber warning 100mm+ in 2 days and the same again 100+mum forecasted again later this week. Unfortunately an elderly man died when he was swept away by a river last week and its An enormous amount of rain even for areas that don’t unusually flood so I get why they’ve went earlier this time 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Dundeeguy

[Ross90]

1 hour ago, Josh Rubio said:

‘The boy who cried wolf’ comes to mind. Do we really need yet another yellow for heavy rain? Is this not just another bog standard autumnal low pressure system for England? 

The warning system covers the UK not just England...

[Fiona Robertson]

23 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Hmmm....

The same places get flooded year in year out.

Um...some of the places where this is going to hit got 7 inches of rain in 36 hours just over a week ago and they are forecast to get about the same again. This isn't a run of the mill amount of rain. 7 inches is about the amount Scotland gets over a MONTH during the wettest month of the year. If this pans out we will have had 2 months of rain over 10 days.

[mountain shadow]

50 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Hmmm....

The same places get flooded year in year out.

The East of Scotland does not get flooded every year because it's East of the mountains. 9

[Glaswegianblizzard]

2 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

‘The boy who cried wolf’ comes to mind. Do we really need yet another yellow for heavy rain? Is this not just another bog standard autumnal low pressure system for England? 

This is a very ignorant post. The recent amber warning affecting parts of *Scotland* for heavy rain was absolutely warranted. 

[P-M]

Some of these posts are pointless.  Moaning about storm names and why one wasn't named.  Then others passing off the risk of flooding as if it's normal for that part of the world. 

Not being funny but storm name or not the projected rainfall totals for some parts, falling onto already saturated ground and rivers spells disaster to me.  

This doesn't look normal to me at all in terms of standard impacts. In fact it's looking pretty dangerous for some.  

For what it's worth I'm not fussed about a storm name or whether one is even named.  I'd be more worried about the impacts of those forecasts - especially living in NE Scotland. 

Last week saw land slips and bad flooding in Scotland and now more rain being dumped by this system? Stay safe everyone potentially affected.  

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

No it really is gonna drop a lot of rain.

In England? I thought the main job was over Eastern Scotland 

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The East of Scotland does not get flooded every year because it's East of the mountains. 9

The amber warning appears the reflect this reality, that the east of Scotland is quite dry normally 

[Josh Rubio]

1 hour ago, Ross90 said:

The warning system covers the UK not just England...

 

28 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

This is a very ignorant post. The recent amber warning affecting parts of *Scotland* for heavy rain was absolutely warranted. 

Hence why I intentionally said England and not the whole of the UK. 

 

Yes, the warnings for Scotland are most certainly needed, but it seems strange that the east of England and parts of Central areas needs one? 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Josh Rubio

[Mapantz]

27 minutes ago, P-M said:

Moaning about storm names and why one wasn't named. 

I didn't see any moaning?! 

The consistency of the naming system was being discussed, which was perfectly acceptable.

[Met4Cast]

3 hours ago, Nick L said:

I'm hearing it may well be beyond amber tomorrow for rainfall in E Scotland.

I’d not be surprised! The impact matrix has it one step below a red warning! 

 

[Paul]

Large areas with more than 150mm of rain showing on the UKV 15z, perhaps amber may turn to red tomorrow..

[Paul]

And just to add to the above, there's more than 100mm of that forecast to fall across 24 hours, Thursday and Friday..

[P-M]

31 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I didn't see any moaning?! 

The consistency of the naming system was being discussed, which was perfectly acceptable.

Might be me having a bad day but seemed like that with some.  

 

Either way name or no name it looks pretty severe. 

[damianslaw]

Its an unusual distribution of rain, equivalent of the moisture leaden ribbon of rain from the SW that affects NW regions, but this time, the feed is from the SE hence the heaviest persistant rain reserved for NE parts thanks to a slow moving cyclonic low feature.

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Paul said:

Large areas with more than 150mm of rain showing on the UKV 15z, perhaps amber may turn to red tomorrow..

It’s rather concerning that you’ve upped the scale from 70mm and it’s still not enough to show the true totals without going off the scale!

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

It’s rather concerning that you’ve upped the scale from 70mm and it’s still not enough to show the true totals without going off the scale!

I'll give it another tweak upwards for the next run.

[Wivenswold]

47 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

 

Hence why I intentionally said England and not the whole of the UK. 

 

Yes, the warnings for Scotland are most certainly needed, but it seems strange that the east of England and parts of Central areas needs one? 

North Essex is going to have a month's worth of rain in 24 hours and our rivers are full. So it's not at all strange that the east of England is included.

[Met4Cast]

For context; the last RED rain warning was issued February 16th 2020 for storm Dennis, before that you have to go back to December 2015 for a red warning. 

Parts of E Scotland could see >250mm over 3 days if the 15z UKV is anything to go by. I’d be surprised if the Met didn’t go red given the outputs this evening. 

[Metwatch]

18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its an unusual distribution of rain, equivalent of the moisture leaden ribbon of rain from the SW that affects NW regions, but this time, the feed is from the SE hence the heaviest persistant rain reserved for NE parts thanks to a slow moving cyclonic low feature.

You would expect the highest totals to be in the south west with this set up, as Babet moves northward from the Bay of Biscay tonight, but as all the secondary lows stalls against the scandi block in the next 72 hours, it's eastern Scotland that look to be unfortunate this time.

Can only imagine how much snow this would have dumped if this all happened 7/8 weeks later.