Storm Ciarán

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Ok I think things are peaking now, expect thing to calm down,if storm is still moving east soon, is it still meant to lift north at all.

Centre seems to be just inland and heading in the general direction of London.

[bevo]

3 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I'm glad the impact in your area has been less than you may have expected, however the warning system is based on a combination of severity of impact and liklihood of said impact. It doesn't mean you will get the severe impacts, it's a probabilities game, it means there's a chance you might get severe weather. When you go out in your car you don't get into a crash every time. Do you then complain that your seatbelt was a waste of time? The warning system gives peeps a heads-up of what may be coming their way. It gives them a chance to make any preparations they deem necessary.

It's also important to bear in mind that forecasting the track of this storm has been difficult because of how late and close to the UK it finally exited the jet stream and the track would ultimately decide how severe and widespread the effects of the worst winds would be.

On top of that, you appear to be close to the centre of it where the winds are less fierce. I'm in Scotland, I have nothing, but I don't begrudge a warning for those being impacted by Ciaran. It's weather. Conditions vary from place to place. The Met Office cannot base its warning system for the entire UK based on what the conditions will be over bevo's house east of Southampton.

Yes I totally agree it’s based on forecasting and probability. However, 24 hours ago, the evidence / data was clearly showing the storm was tracking much further south, hence the awful conditions in France & C.I’s that we now see. The Hampshire Major Incident was declared yesterday evening well within a timeframe that even we knew on this community that the likely impact to Hampshire would be minimal. They didn’t declare a major incident last week when the winds caused havoc here. I’m sorry, but on this occasion the communication between the Met Office and Hampshire was clearly wrong. Rant over as I’m off to home school my kids yet again whilst also trying to earn a living! 

[Jo Farrow]

Jersey airport recorded a 93mph gust. 

There have been thunderstorms overnight with large hail, wild conditions with large waves, flooding and structural damage. There are numerous trees down #ChannelIslands as the low continues east. (gusts on radar)

[The PIT]

Highest gust on xcweather 77mph at Le havre so the strongests gusts are further south falling inline with ukv.

[the storm fisherman]

Down here in Southampton it’s very eerily quiet and calm just hope that I get to work before the backend comes through 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Some Golf ball size hail reports coming out the Jersey now and serious tornado damage as well although more info when it’s lighter in a few hours.

 

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, bevo said:

Yes I totally agree it’s based on forecasting and probability. However, 24 hours ago, the evidence / data was clearly showing the storm was tracking much further south, hence the awful conditions in France & C.I’s that we now see. The Hampshire Major Incident was declared yesterday evening well within a timeframe that even we knew on this community that the likely impact to Hampshire would be minimal. They didn’t declare a major incident last week when the winds caused havoc here. I’m sorry, but on this occasion the communication between the Met Office and Hampshire was clearly wrong. Rant over as I’m off to home school my kids yet again whilst also trying to earn a living! 

Here's the warning matrix for winds in Southampton. Southampton was on the western edge of the amber area.

[CurtisOliver]

Weird. The met office is forecasting I’ll go into a lull around 9am and then start getting gusts. But I’m finding we’ve already been in a lull and the wind has just started weakly gusting up. Travelling into work. I’m going to prepare for worse conditions just in case. I’m worried that with it hitting in daytime again and it being so calm it’s going to catch people out in the southeast. It won’t be anything like the south coast but even 50mph+ with the trees the way they are could cause disruption to travel.

[Stroudley]

46 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Anyone central southern south coast are at the centre of the low at the moment so as you know, that means winds are calm for the moment.

955.7mb and almost calm with steady rain. 

Ready for things to change though!

 

[SizzlingHeat]

Woken up to calm conditions and light rain in Poole, as expected. Another non event here. The track was nailed by the models and channel Islands really getting hammered. Aside from the far south east this really was a non event for the majority. Again, all the hype and media coverage doesn't help particularly when schools are unnecessarily closed and major events being declared when for 80% of those living in warning areas, the wind isnt even strong enough to fly a kite. Embarrassing really

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 hours ago, coldfingers1 said:

I swear I have giants clumping about in 10 League boots on my roof. No chance of sleep until they stop moving things around, GRR!

You need to get that sorted ...

[matty40s]

128 mph in Pointe du Raz France.

 

[bevo]

2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Here's the warning matrix for winds in Southampton. Southampton was on the western edge of the amber area.

Could you advise when the risk assessment was undertaken noting that timing is key?

[kazaddress]

I woke up with a bit of a headache this morning...

 

I think that means Farnborough, Hampshire is in the eye of the storm!

 

944.6 it went down to at 6:50am

[ANYWEATHER]

The worst of the winds look they have peaked has expected over the Channel Islands. 100mph at Jersey airport 3hours ago…

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, bevo said:

Could you advise when the risk assessment was undertaken noting that timing is key?

09:29 Wed am, according to the Met Office weather warnings page. Runs from 06:00 to17:00 Thursday.

[Bazza118]

like others its very calm wind wise here at the moment. 28.2mm of rain since midnight (47mm since start of Nov, i.e yesterday) and pressure currently 955.2 but heading down still.

 

[Barbel]

A cynic would say this sort of thing is Conditioning us to forcibly change our behaviour (ie staying at home to look after school kids rather than work) due to edicts related to a statistically unremarkable weather events. A precursor eventually to climate lockdowns I would suggest. Predicated by the usual Agenda 21/WEF powers and Climate Change movement and enforced by government and those in their pay.

[SnowBear]

It's been pretty much a coast crawler up to now. Possibly the centre will shift a bit further inland and exit somewhere around North Kent or the Thames Estuary I think. 

Strongest winds in the SE quadrant as to be expected over Jersey due to forward motion of the system, back edge SW/NW quadrant is lively and may cause problems as it runs through. 

I do think the call for school closures was a bit haphazard, in the past any closures would have been announced (usually by radio and TV announcements) in the morning if damage was severe or had occurred or upon an early morning forecast assessment. 

In the age of the Internet that's even easier now with txt and email systems able to mass notify in short order. 

[tomp456]

Bit of a disappointment so far.

Apart from the low pressure...it's  been a bog standard low pressure system here.

[Fiona Robertson]

Just now, Barbel said:

A cynic would say this sort of thing is Conditioning us to forcibly change our behaviour (ie staying at home to look after school kids rather than work) due to edicts related to a statistically unremarkable weather events. A precursor eventually to climate lockdowns I would suggest. Predicated by the usual Agenda 21/WEF powers and Climate Change movement and enforced by government and those in their pay.

How? They advised what the weather might do and left the decisions up to you.

[TwisterGirl81]

Very light breeze in Exeter, have heard we are in the eye, crazy to think what’s happening less than 100 miles south.

As someone who was at school and walked home at the end of the school day in the burns day storm of 1990 in 87mph gusts…some schools are closed here, I’m guessing there must be worst to come?!

 

[Kiwi]

4 minutes ago, kazaddress said:

I woke up with a bit of a headache this morning...

 

I think that means Farnborough, Hampshire is in the eye of the storm!

 

944.6 it went down to at 6:50am

Yes, I'm in the northern extremities of Hampshire between Basingstoke and Reading.

I also woke up with a cracking headache  ....putting it down to the very low pressure, the empty wine bottle or a combo.

[bevo]

Just now, Fiona Robertson said:

How? They advised what the weather might do and left the decisions up to you.

They didn’t leave the decision for 1000s of parents in Hampshire to decide because they based the evidence on out of date data and shut all the schools!! If they had let us all decide this am, all of the kids in Hampshire would be going to school today. Make the decision at 6 / 7am not based on models that ran over 24hours before.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 minute ago, Kiwi said:

Yes, I'm in the northern extremities of Hampshire between Basingstoke and Reading.

I also woke up with a cracking headache  ....putting it down to the very low pressure, the empty wine bottle or a combo.

I’m putting my headache to one thing Flu….