Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Well this is from the ECMWF’s own site. 

 

For the kind of cold inversion you are looking for you need a settled HP cell over the UK and that’s not what the ECM is showing. That draw of southerly wind, and south-westerlies up the NW of the UK, isn’t a cold set up.

Best to be realistic at the moment. All may change before long.

NWS posted the surface temps - basically below average for England south of Manchester and east of Bristol. Tropical Teignmouth will be mild as will the rest of the west of the UK and Scotland. Possibly the south coast too

It's all moot as it'll change by the morning. Sums up the boring mid-term outlook that we're debating such detail though

[MP-R]

48 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Interesting that the Urban dictionary has this term!

Inversion cold would be more appropriate wouldn’t it. There’s nothing fake about it when ice days can occur at the surface.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Faux cold artificial cold...pretend cold,call it what you may...but this looks like a trend to actual cold...perhaps real cold

[ICE COLD]

46 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Well this is from the ECMWF’s own site. 

 

For the kind of cold inversion you are looking for you need a settled HP cell over the UK and that’s not what the ECM is showing. That draw of southerly wind, and south-westerlies up the NW of the UK, isn’t a cold set up.

Best to be realistic at the moment. All may change before long.

 

55 minutes ago, TillyS said:

None of the 12z models are ‘cold’ as such, if by that we mean a consistent showing of -5C 850hPA.

I like this ‘faux cold’ description mentioned above, but even that is elusive. This ECM chart at T240 is not cold:

And if you follow the logical sequence it just leads to more south-westerlies, thus using up another week or two of winter.

UKMO out at T168 isn’t a cold set up either:

I’m not ‘pessimistic’. Just being realistic.

The main focus of the models right now is the potential for flooding to continue or worsen. One of the two arterial rail routes into the south-west remains blocked and the further heavy rain showing up in the models on top of a wet autumn is only going to exacerbate the situation.

It’s definitely on the cold side on days 8,9 and 10 in England on the ECM . It’s below freezing at night . So I would say thats cold and below average. Faux cold yes not snowy cold (yet) that will follow on a few days later

Edited December 6, 2023 by ICE COLD

[LRD]

Well, if it's cold you want the EC46 looks promising

Week of 18th Dec

Christmas week

8th Jan

Through Greenland heights rather than Scandi though.

Edited December 6, 2023 by LRD

[Andy8472]

SSW/weaking chances increasing 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:

SSW/weaking chances increasing 

Yep even more members going for a reversal now . The mean down even further now

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 is superb

[bluearmy]

Gefs, eps and geps by end week 2 remain on track - euro low anom even more pronounced if anything and at the moment you’d say that the Xmas weekend looks to be when the pattern could set in properly cold.  People looking for proper cold uppers to arrive before day 12/13 are going to be disappointed based on where we currently are. Of course there is always the chance that the modelling could suddenly accelerate the overall evolution but that’s not where we currently are. 

as mentioned above, the 46 continues with week 3-5 continuity 

Next week has now flipped over the past two days to lose the low anom to our west to become high. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this evening, T192-T240:

By this timeframe we should lose the wet theme as high pressure influences the UK weather, particularly clusters 3 and 4, while cluster remains westerly.

T264+:

This the timeframe of interest in terms of what happens next.  As was the case this morning, the model is keen for a Europe trough, and so the high needs to move a little to allow that to take hold.  Favoured for our high to move northwest, clusters 1 and 3 show the Atlantic ridge regime, but equally there is a (possibly separate) high to our northeast clusters 2,3,5, so most charts have the red border (Scandi high regime).  Just cluster 4 disappointing with similar evolution but leaves the UK right in the trough.  

[Downburst]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is superb

The only thing is the temps are normal to above normal. These being the temps corresponding to the upper pressure anomalies. So that has to be considered.

[northwestsnow]

The chase is on

[Dennis]

around 20th

[Downburst]

Will have to keep a beady eye on the higher pressure anomaly (isn’t necessarily actually high pressure yet) south of Greenland moving north on future runs. Period 25th to 1st. But it’s brilliant to see even this genesis hint I have to say. Looks like Scandi high is out for now.

[fromey]

Just seen this posted!

Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by fromey

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this posted!

 

All this longterm hocus pocus is just

500hpa, ten-day-range, and that’s it for me… weather is still a chaotic thing, not predictable in long range… 

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this posted!

Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

 

No idea what that chart is  but it it ain’t januarys ec seasonal  

and andrej’s comment about westerlies is for central and southern Europe as opposed to nw europe 

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by bluearmy

[Bricriu]

14 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this posted!

Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

 

It could be true,because If we get an ssw in the first week or so of January, it could be three weeks before we see the effects from it in the Troposphere . I hope it's wrong, as I would prefer a cold spell during January rather than February. 

[Big Gally]

16 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this posted!

Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

 

It seems misinterpreted. If you read his actual post he does say Northern Europe been cold. While I think he is referring to the south been warm. . He’s ramping up eastern america been snowy. 

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Will have to keep a beady eye on the higher pressure anomaly (isn’t necessarily actually high pressure yet) south of Greenland moving north on future runs. Period 25th to 1st. But it’s brilliant to see even this genesis hint I have to say. Looks like Scandi high is out for now.

If the speculation earlier on about the MJO proves to be correct, a mid latitude high might be the best we can hope for after mid month?

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this posted!

Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

 

No titles on the forecast, no time, no forecast period. Just says ecm long term forecast. So informative... NOT! 

[Big Gally]

[CoventryWeather]

1 hour ago, Dennis said:

around 20th

I'm on a college trip to Birmingham on the 20th so you'll guarantee that it'll turn cold and wintry on that date!!

Keep it dry and cold - I'm happy with that, my photography will be good during that weather type! 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

Dennis will like that

I would think that’s too early at 18th dec in the trop - gfs op at day 12 not the most reliable output but on this occasion perhaps a bit too progressive 

[MJB]

Depths of FI has potential

 

JFF of course