Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[warrenb]

Not going to happen this run. To much PV left back over the pole.

[Jacob]

Looks like the southerly winds are beginning to fight back

[TSNWK]

now to see where the parts land as the initial vortex plunge washes up in our local... could be some super cold nights as the flow slackens, so long as we avoid  the atlantic incursion that occured on the 00z from here on onwards.

[bluearmy]

only for general  info at this range but keen to see what this run does with the vortex chunk headed towards n Greenland at T270

extended model period today has shown the mean east Canadian tpv reforming just north west of Greenland late on. The more ops that don’t do this may indicate that it may not happen 

[northwestsnow]

BITTERLY COLD Xmas 2023

[CoventryWeather]

Thickness values are very low - despite the moderate uppers, there will be snow even at sea level. 

Great run again. Very unstable, so would be features running around the PV. Some disruptive snow possible. 

[sundog]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I intially agreed on uppers of around -5 not cutting it for most - however there is something about thicknesses as well that need to considered and might by more important under such low pressure?

 

Would the 850hpa level be down a few hundred metres. About 1200m instead of around the more normal 1500m?

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

only for general  info at this range but keen to see what this run does with the vortex chunk headed towards n Greenland at T270

extended model period today has shown the mean east Canadian tpv reforming just north west of Greenland late on. The more ops that don’t do this may indicate that it may not happen 

annoying it that formed on this run - but at 300 hours its noise I guess, although be good to see it dropped again for the 12Z

2 minutes ago, sundog said:

Would the 850hpa level be down a few hundred metres. About 1200m instead of around the more normal 1500m?

I shall defer to a more learned member

[ICE COLD]

The gfs 6z run was broadly in line with previous outputs . No deep freeze granted but could be pretty decent for some . 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed.

[BartyHater]

So strictly interpreting the 06GFS its...mild/very mild until this time next week, then rather cold/cold for a while, followed by a chilly Xmas Day before mild/very mild air moves NE during Boxing Day.

The rather cold/cold spell later next week and into the weekend should give most places the chance to see some of the white stuff falling and for those at even relatively modest elevation, even lying for a time, then we also have the chance of some leading edge snow on Boxing Day.

So not exactly a winter wonderland, but compared to where we were just 48hrs ago, it's a considerable improvement.

[That ECM]

I find this interesting from a nhp perspective. Especially over the pond.

[steveinsussex]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

BITTERLY COLD Xmas 2023

Required in order to keep beer cold outside the back door

[BartyHater]

7 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Required in order to keep beer cold outside the back door

Seeing both the US and the vast majority of Canada devoid of any cold does look very odd. The anomalous warmth appears to last pretty much out to New Year too...bizarre. 

[BartyHater]

14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I find this interesting from a nhp perspective. Especially over the pond.

Seeing both the US and the vast majority of Canada devoid of any cold does look very odd. The anomalous warmth appears to last pretty much out to New Year too...bizarre. 

[Big Gally]

Just now, BartyHater said:

Seeing both the US and the vast majority of Canada devoid of any cold does look very odd. The anomalous warmth appears to last pretty much out to New Year too...bizarre. 

Not odd… it’s beautiful. It’s our turn! Looks warm over there.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Seeing both the US and the vast majority of Canada devoid of any cold does look very odd. The anomalous warmth appears to last pretty much out to New Year too...bizarre. 

Don’t speak too soon.  That is a serious plunge of cold

I believe they think the mild blip will be broken with a severe plunge of cold.  This would tie in

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

Gefs mean has brought the trough a little further north in the 9/10 day period - closer to eps 00z mean 

[Aiden2012]

I don’t know why everyone think the 850s temps are too modest, we are in the best part of winter the sun is at its lowest no heating really and I just had a snow day and the uppers were barely -5c. I’m at 30+m above sea level too and my family at the coast got snow also.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Aiden2012

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Don’t speak too soon.  That is a serious plunge of cold

I believe they think the mild blip will be broken with a severe plunge of cold.  This would tie in

 

BFTP

 But it’s a day 16 gfs op Fred ? more chance of it not happening although more than a decent chance that they will get a brief blast of cold at some point between late next week and new year down the e seaboard states as a trough swings through 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs mean has brought the trough a little further north in the 9/10 day period - closer to eps 00z mean 

Nope,no likey.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope,no likey.

Not massively different but likely shows that current direction of travel is not to dig the deeper trough too far south into France 

and it’s better than yesterdays runs 

likely just inter suite swings 

what is a little more obvious is the lw mean polar trough is backing a little west over the past 24 hours. The gfs ops today have trended that way so not a surprise 

Edited December 13, 2023 by bluearmy

[BartyHater]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Don’t speak too soon.  That is a serious plunge of cold

I believe they think the mild blip will be broken with a severe plunge of cold.  This would tie in

 

BFTP

Not sure it’s a serious plunge of cold by their standards. Looks very dramatic on Meteociel, not so on WetterZ….pretty much big standard imo.

 

 

[That ECM]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs mean has brought the trough a little further north in the 9/10 day period - closer to eps 00z mean 

You do know when you say something like that @northwestsnow has to go and have a lie down right?
 

It’s all ok.

Edited December 13, 2023 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

You do know when you say something like that @northwestsnow has to go and have a lie down right?

Downgrades in any shape are very depressing

[Met4Cast]

It's a real shame the MJO will be far less amplified than originally thought, the AAM is trending the right way, we've had a recent Canadian warming likely helping to push the tPV eastwards into Siberia, a strong MJO pulse at the same time would have likely led to some very high impact winter weather, but alas, it wasn't to be this time around. 

Cold & wintry Christmas week looks likely nonetheless so it will be seasonal at least! Lets see what we can squeeze out of this one.