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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm is looking increasingly isolated this evening. 

Getting to the point where GP's up and down the country will  be asking patients with high BP if they've been watching recent EC mild outliers  when trying to identify the cause of the High BP.

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BartyHater Aficionado

BartyHater

Posted
  • Location: S Cornwall
  • Location: S Cornwall
Posted
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm is looking increasingly isolated this evening. 

The problem is it’s been completely isolated on many occasions in the past, only for every other model to eventually get dragged screaming and kicking into line, but that’s not saying it’ll be the case this time of course.

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well, the JMA isn’t wavering from a Christmas timed cold plunge!  T180:

IMG_8059.thumb.gif.5fafd38192ea15df5d2f7ee90a24ca8b.gifIMG_8058.thumb.gif.a2a3c77ac08519515242d7077cab01a6.gif

Not posted today, as I am not really sure what the models are telling us, this morning I was ready to throw in the towel, but the interest is there once again this afternoon.

@MATTWOLVES 3 so sorry to hear of your loss.

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, the JMA isn’t wavering from a Christmas timed cold plunge!  T180:

IMG_8059.thumb.gif.5fafd38192ea15df5d2f7ee90a24ca8b.gifIMG_8058.thumb.gif.a2a3c77ac08519515242d7077cab01a6.gif

Not posted today, as I am not really sure what the models are telling us, this morning I was ready to throw in the towel, but the interest is there once again this afternoon.

@MATTWOLVES 3 so sorry to hear of your loss.

Equally for the first time in days the jma has us back in Southwesterlys by the 27th!! As does the gem and gfs.

So firming up on a cold Christmas but perhaps a brief envelope of 2/3 days before it turns milder 

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Malarky Aficionado

Malarky

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Equally for the first time in days the jma has us back in Southwesterlys by the 27th!! As does the gem and gfs.

So firming up on a cold Christmas but perhaps a brief envelope of 2/3 days before it turns milder 

*Checks notes*
 

We’ll take it!

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, the JMA isn’t wavering from a Christmas timed cold plunge!  T180:

IMG_8059.thumb.gif.5fafd38192ea15df5d2f7ee90a24ca8b.gifIMG_8058.thumb.gif.a2a3c77ac08519515242d7077cab01a6.gif

Not posted today, as I am not really sure what the models are telling us, this morning I was ready to throw in the towel, but the interest is there once again this afternoon.

@MATTWOLVES 3 so sorry to hear of your loss.

Yes its been a terrible time for the models, But as I'm sure you can see it's certainly an interesting PV profile..

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Eps beginning to sniff that MAR I mentioned this morning later week 2 and the control certainly goes that way 

seems to be a tendency to dig an eastern American trough on this run which drives the ridge trough downstream 

Edited by bluearmy
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Malarky Aficionado

Malarky

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, the JMA isn’t wavering from a Christmas timed cold plunge!  T180:

IMG_8059.thumb.gif.5fafd38192ea15df5d2f7ee90a24ca8b.gifIMG_8058.thumb.gif.a2a3c77ac08519515242d7077cab01a6.gif

Not posted today, as I am not really sure what the models are telling us, this morning I was ready to throw in the towel, but the interest is there once again this afternoon.

@MATTWOLVES 3 so sorry to hear of your loss.

1080hp over Greenland? 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

ECM has aligned a little to the UKMO. Lots of uncertainty how things will develop 23 Dec onwards.. tomorrow should bring more clarity, but think it will be Tuesday before UKMO, GFS and ECM align fully.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Malarky said:

1080hp over Greenland? 

It’s got form for doing that with the surface pressure contours.  The models differ in that region due to how they extrapolate to the plateau.  There is no Greenland high, the height values (colours) are not high as per the other models.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Incidentally have we discussed how the MJO continues to drag itself into another phase, day by day before being predicted to go in the COD ?

surely we can start to think about the odd run with HLB beginning to appear now ???

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally have we discussed how the MJO continues to drag itself into another phase, day by day before being predicted to go in the COD ?

surely we can start to think about the odd run with HLB beginning to appear now ???

There is a hint of that showing in the extended clusters:

IMG_8061.thumb.png.04f6c53a8da0aa8861dd16d4a2cfa31a.png

All 3 flirt with a ridge into Greenland, and the first two completely get rid of the euro heights by day 15, the third not so.  

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Addicks Fan 1981 Seasoned

Addicks Fan 1981

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps beginning to sniff that MAR I mentioned this morning later week 2 and the control certainly goes that way 

seems to be a tendency to dig an eastern American trough on this run which drives the ridge trough downstream 

Are you expecting the weather to be westerly driven at all?  There is certainly no sign of any easterly whatsoever.    

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

Another huge ECM outlier at the end there! Ensembles aren't that cold for (this is for London) but further north in Scotland is def in the game

graphe0_00_0_0_-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.png

Edited by Kentspur
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
21 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Are you expecting the weather to be westerly driven at all?  There is certainly no sign of any easterly whatsoever.    

No sign of any easterly around rising heights to our ne 

looks totally westerly driven for next fortnight although we are hoping to dig troughs to interrupt the mobility 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

For slider potential yes. 

26th December 2014 had a slider gave 5-10cm to lower levels uppers were only -2/-3C.

Aye, even had snow here that day

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

EC46 has average to above average temps for the whole 6 weeks

Don't know how much weighting I'd give to it though it rarely predicts - temp anomalies

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Gregulator Explorer

Gregulator

Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
  • Weather Preferences: Winter spring autumn
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
Posted

Are there pub runs on a school night or just Friday and Saturdays?

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps beginning to sniff that MAR I mentioned this morning later week 2 and the control certainly goes that way 

seems to be a tendency to dig an eastern American trough on this run which drives the ridge trough downstream 

 

gensnh-0-1-300.png

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