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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted
7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Really? been there on and off since November...all we experience is flipping low pressure!

Scandinavia had been milder recently, but really has been a cold spot in 2023. From late October on, I guess, it has been way colder than the climatological average. Here is the Baltic sea ice extent over the past few weeks. It hasn't been this much since 2010. Only recently there has been a decrease, but with the coming cold spell with probably temperatures dropping below -30, my best guess is a very quick increase in the ice extent. Not to mention the North Pole as a whole, which is doing quite well. timthumb.thumb.png.3690f7e21173ae70187be3b00e802174.png

 

The trend is towards cold anyway and it doesn't take much to get the cold South. The only risk is that we might end up with a February 2007 situation where the cold stayed in the North. 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Oh stop it GEFS, that is naughty 

Mean: 

image.thumb.png.da4ce7bcd7ce0096225a137879edbfab.png

Control: 

image.thumb.png.25d6dbd8de7129168507d56d9a8367d7.png

Yes the right anomalie mean where we want them from a cold perspective...

gensnh-31-5-276(2).thumb.png.6cca7e7e8021cd820eaa70776e1efbfc.png

 

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
6 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Oh stop it GEFS, that is naughty 

Mean: 

image.thumb.png.da4ce7bcd7ce0096225a137879edbfab.png

Control: 

image.thumb.png.25d6dbd8de7129168507d56d9a8367d7.png

image.thumb.png.fe185d910de9c47e6244261def783377.png

Control is freezing by the 7th/8th

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Really? been there on and off since November...all we experience is flipping low pressure!

Hardly mate, have a look through not a single day close to the cold I highlighted on that chart!

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Reanalysis archives

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE
Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

 

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

The oldies on here might remember the term "Murr Sausage". Well I present to you this, a sausage in its early evolution: 

image.thumb.png.4e75802b1e0193ac0f68c2b878cfaa04.png

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AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

Number 25 at day 10. This is probably the best scenario

GFSP25EU12_240_1.png

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T270

IMG_0200.thumb.png.4dcb2ef7a6cc74c21825f99bb2b42ede.png

Reckon the whole purple lot could go round this .  I’d have my crayons out if I wasn’t on a bus!

Thats kind of what happened Mike..

animrbn8.thumb.gif.56a4a25a7c649d23ffb203c3e031bc01.gif

..pretty good nh pattern i would have thought with the exception of those heights that cannot be named...

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, AO- said:

Number 25 at day 10. This is probably the best scenario

GFSP25EU12_240_1.png

For the South East and Holland, not for the northern half of the UK 🤕😂

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Ventnor Viking said:

I haven't seen that much cold uppers over the arctic for a long time and over such a wide area as shown on the GFS 12z. This also ties in with the arctic sea ice gains as shown below. Its finally making its way back in to the 1980-2010 range, which it hasn't been in for quite sometime.  What this does mean is that if the SSW takes place then there is plenty of cold air to displace 👍

Ventnor ...

whilst  what you are saying is indeed correct it is only in the last 2 weeks that things re really starting to improve very rapidly. (see below)...

 image.thumb.png.ab098c0ed96ae58a6db47b93297bd8b2.png        image.thumb.png.c72bbb2b7ba0dfcd1ce7c8bc13e68c4e.png    

Hopefully a case of just in time planning.!!

MIA

 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Once again - The emphasis firmly on even shallow MLBs - and what than can deliver for the uk at this time of year!.. I’d say we are almost certainly walking into a cold spell past January 1/2…I’ll await the completion of the 12z b4 any further analysis today!!!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Author
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Posted (edited)

Some crazy ensembles coming out folks..Now either I'm losing my eyesight and sanity which is a possibility....or we are now seeing the output reflect the changing sypnotics.

I officially announce the chase has begun..no not on ITV but here right now infront of our very eyes!

This is gonna be fun.

Come onnnnn  

Hey folks...Where's the iberian Heights gone..bye bye baby...bye bye 

gensnh-0-1-312.png

gensnh-1-1-324.png

gensnh-4-1-324.png

gensnh-5-1-312.png

gensnh-6-1-300.png

3a5ce24b7d3b137015f4570bb03945d7.gif

gensnh-7-1-312.png

gensnh-9-1-336.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES 3
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Major incident declared in Scotland - Snow - lucky people 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

The control run has taken a 'deep dive'....

ens_image-2023-12-27T181554_238.thumb.png.c24565478e25fd1e4895d816a22bc8a2.png

..mean not too bad either...

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
40 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Really? been there on and off since November...all we experience is flipping low pressure!

Yep, nothing unusual with having cold there, the lack of deep cold right at this moment in time at 850 heights sums up the modern times unfortunately.

There does seem to be trend to develop a scandi high of some sort but unless it's far enough westwards and some sort of ridging develops in the Atlantic I just can't see it bringing much benefits and we perhaps risk again of persistent rainfall in NE Scotland. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
24 minutes ago, ITSY said:

The oldies on here might remember the term "Murr Sausage". Well I present to you this, a sausage in its early evolution: 

image.thumb.png.4e75802b1e0193ac0f68c2b878cfaa04.png

Aye, we do: what a shame it never materialised! :drunk-emoji:

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Lots of easterly options around day 10 in the GEFS. Height rises now focused more on Scandi.

I'm not buying at this stage though. We see this every year without fail. Deep in FI charts start picking up loads of Greenland Highs. These don't come forward over a period of several days and then quickly get dropped in favor of Scandi Heights. These also fail to come forward through the days and after several days sitting at days 9/10 they get dropped for a UK High or similar.

I'd be treating any blockbuster runs with extreme skepticism right now as the garden path is long but usually winds its way past Greenland, then Scandinavia before ending right back at Blighty. I'm still putting my bet on a UK high (cool uppers).

 

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Lots of easterly options around day 10 in the GEFS. Height rises now focused more on Scandi.

I'm not buying at this stage though. We see this every year without fail. Deep in FI charts start picking up loads of Greenland Highs. These don't come forward over a period of several days and then quickly get dropped in favor of Scandi Heights. These also fail to come forward through the days and after several days sitting at days 9/10 they get dropped for a UK High or similar.

I'd be treating any blockbuster runs with extreme skepticism right now as the garden path is long but usually winds its way past Greenland, then Scandinavia before ending right back at Blighty. I'm still putting my bet on a UK high (cool uppers).

 

 

Not unreasonable....I guess the challenge to this is... are background drivers with us this time... 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

ECM struggling.

It has brought the low back around 1K miles West from yesterdays 12z and it istill a few hundred miles further E then GFS or UKMO.

image.thumb.png.f6feca9ce2d74a7ecf1b31e32c14ccb9.pngimage.thumb.png.5f1b43b79fde60527b1b11b3445c8f94.png

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