Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[MJB]

Severe frosts at night under the HP

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 168, WAA about to head to Greenland. Still a little far out. GEM is awesome 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS and GEM at T240:

GFS is an improvement on earlier runs.  GEM has a setup with much more chance of longevity, I think.  

Definitely looking at them two charts..it's day 10 again though..or you think things were ok before that?

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

West based -NAO a real concern now.

I see nothing in the output showing this at all. 

[Purga]

Still could end up with a UK High but there's a way to go yet & lots to be optimistic about, Squares with the maintained narrative from Exeter - More settled and colder.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Purga

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168, WAA about to head to Greenland. Still a little far out. GEM is awesome 

GEM only looks good at day 10 though...we've seen that many times!we need things to come together before that..like the ECM

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168, WAA about to head to Greenland. Still a little far out. GEM is awesome 

That looks very cold and slack.. pop up opportunities 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I see nothing in the output showing this at all. 

Me neither..

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168, WAA about to head to Greenland. Still a little far out. GEM is awesome 

Cold air over us a week today, that's fine from UKMO

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, AO- said:

Cold advection. Opposite of WAA

Ah yeah, if the retrogression is too slow / not enough low pressure into Iberia the low will just power up over the UK and the jet will quickly return, this is a real possibility.

[warrenb]

GFS beginning to sniff at it, but then just can't bring itself to do it, issue is the negative tilt of the wave break. You need a dig SE on the back of the break to push the jet south. You can see this on the 168 from UKMO, and subsequently the low coming out of the states has energy already heading SE.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Definitely looking at them two charts..it's day 10 again though..or you think things were ok before that?

GEM and ICON good at day 8.  GFS, I didn’t like the angle and as you can see it is collapsing.  UKMO I am unsure about.  On to ECM.

[Allseasons-Si]

GFS and UKMO at 168 pretty well matched side by side...

 

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

West based -NAO a real concern now.

It’s possible - especially if we get a quick downwelling wave at high latitude with first reversal around 3 Jan. I think the ec control run this morning went that way.  There was a drift to bring the euro low heights a little further north on the 06z gefs but we’d need to see more before becoming too concerned about it. Especially as we’ve seen a tpv segment keen on hanging around over e Canada 

certainly something to be aware of given that the nwp may not be picking up how much neg AO may arrive approaching mid month 

although I get that you are worrying about earlier in the run than I am speaking about 

Edited December 30, 2023 by bluearmy

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I see nothing in the output showing this at all. 

GEM/ICON have an easterly South West of Greenland whilst the UK is under SW Winds. Lots of high pressure but not conducive to significant cold / snow.

[Duane S.]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

West based -NAO a real concern now.

And that concludes my Netweather bingo card for this chase. 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GEM/ICON have an easterly South West of Greenland whilst the UK is under SW Winds. Lots of high pressure but not conducive to significant cold / snow.

Not due to a West based -NAO though, but down to the absence of a -NAO.

[warrenb]

3 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

And that concludes my Netweather bingo card for this chase. 

And you only needed one contributor to do it 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Not due to a West based -NAO though, but down to the absence of a -NAO.

On that chart the NAO is negative over the West of the North Atlantic and positive over the East of the North Atlantic.

[Bricriu]

At the very least it looks like it will become cold and dry- after all the rain of late I will take that. We have floods in places that  usually don't flood at the moment 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Bricriu said:

At the very least it looks like it will become cold and dry- after all the rain of late I will take that. We have floods in places that  usually don't flood at the moment 

5050 between cold and Azores high pushing in for me.

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GEM/ICON have an easterly South West of Greenland whilst the UK is under SW Winds. Lots of high pressure but not conducive to significant cold / snow.

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

 

Favourite chart for me is the UKMO ..there appears to be extensive hp moving northwest..and the push seems far stronger then other models..I think that would go into something special!

[Bricriu]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

5050 between cold and Azores high pushing in for me.

We could get faux cold if the Azores high pushes in after a while. I obviously want snow as much as the next guy  but we know if there is a way for it to go pear shaped for us it usually does. 

[AO-]

Nothing west based NAO- in this run, but the block collapses. Untill day 10 great. Room for improvement later on in the run.

Edited December 30, 2023 by AO-

[sebastiaan1973]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168, WAA about to head to Greenland. Still a little far out. GEM is awesome 

Seems to me a toppler in a couple of days. On the westside of the anticyclone the movement is too much from west tot east.