Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

GFS moved towards ECM….where’s Kasim?

 

BFTP

[mulzy]

Good morning and happy new year folks.   As the 6z has shown, GFS rarely makes big moves but rather baby steps in backtracking.  This is likely to continue on its 12z run.

[That ECM]

Edited January 1 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

Well its a pretty hefty shift from GFS by day 8

6z v 0z

[northwestsnow]

Don't think the block will get far enough North on this run but it defo has moved to Euro..

[seabreeze86]

GFS now boxes is the high sending energy underneath 

Great start to the day 

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Don't think the block will get far enough North on this run but it defo has moved to Euro..

It’s moved enough for one run NWS . UKMO has this I think 

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Upgrade on the ICON..slightly more amplified and colder uppers

Now that's a proper GH!

Luke you were asking about different model runs yesterday. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

A better run from gfs..only downside we seem to have lost that decent cold pool over europe

[northwestsnow]

Well I rudely forgot to say HNY to all on NW..

I think this has been a good morning for coldies, at last something approaching winter beckons.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Luke you were asking about different model runs yesterday. 

Thanks spah1!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

GFS now boxes is the high sending energy underneath 

Great start to the day 

It’s moved enough for one run NWS . UKMO has this I think 

I dont disagree..

I'll go for a UKMO hat trick tonight and a cold outlook..

 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

A better run from gfs..only downside we seem to have lost that decent cold pool over europe

That’s because it’s on its way to us.

Edited January 1 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

Block reforce heading in, it’ll be interesting to see where it ends up. 

[mountsbaysnow]

The charts running this morning are a glimmer of hope, however my mind is focused on japan as I type. For speedy recovery. 

[CoventryWeather]

Great charts this morning, lovely to see the UKMO being consistent - it is really hard to beat when it becomes consistent on a pattern around 144-168. 

The GFS will probably be on level terms by the 12z or 18z, with hopefully good agreement for the UKMO solution later. 

Happy New Year to you all! 

[TSNWK]

 big differences with jet at day 9 should help with energy going under and less pressure on high to sink…

[The Enforcer]

15 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

And this in itself is the problem.. 

Far too many people think the GSDM/MJO can be used for UK specific forecasting, it can’t. It’s a global diagnostic tool for broad scale patterns, macro rather than micro. 

As per Tamara’s post yesterday/the day before, the well advertised south shifted jet & subsequent current -NAO phase has occurred. 

Next week we will see amplification & cold air filtering across the UK, the high now unlikely to be amplified enough to allow for widespread deep cold/snowfall but that has never really been on offer, though granted clearly there has been a shift SE in the placement of high pressure, again. 

Getting a decent synoptic pattern really is like pulling teeth these days, it’s becoming increasingly difficult & frustrating. 

As a broad-scale diagnostic tool, clearly it can only take you so far up the garden path. A leap of faith is then required with the micro-scale components to complete the journey. The way this leap is often presented is that it is a simple matter of a puddle that needs skipping over. However, I find that the kind of leap required would be to clear Grand Canyon. If you live in the South-West and Central Southern England region, make that two Grand Canyons.

[SLEETY]

3 hours ago, TillyS said:

ECM at T240 isn’t particularly enthralling to be honest. High meandering but generally sinking with mild north-westerlies up the western flank and the coldest 850 hPa temps heading into southern Europe.

 

I don’t think it’s very wise to diss the GFS at the moment merely because it doesn’t show what we want it to. It may be wrong but it’s one of the big three and it makes me uncomfortable that it’s not on board. It’s a particular concern that the ensembles aren’t massively supportive for the UKMO evolution.

Mind you, it’s equally risky to bet against our own UKMO model. The ECM, which had a bitterly severe cold easterly set up 48 hours ago, has backed away from that which also makes me nervous about this.

Interesting times for sure. But I’ll stick my neck out and predict the GFS IS correct. The high potters around before sinking into Europe and we’re left in an essentially MILD flow.

That aged wellStop using the gfs as your no1 model, it's finally smelling the coffee about 3 days after the other models, the constant mild outliers were the clue it was wrong and has failed again. 

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, not many ens members across the three suites with anything resembling an organised tpv end week 2 

just got to hope that the jigsaw pieces fall for us 

[Day 10]

Happy New Year To All.

Really not a bad position we find ourselves in at Day 5 the 6th of Jan, bang on the date things were forecast to change.

Becoming cold & frosty for a time, a perfect setup if we manage to get the high moving northwest bringing in proper Winter with potential for snow & ice further down the line.

A great start to the year from where I'm sitting.

UKMO, ECM, GFS Day 5 - Not bad at all!

Have a good day.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of ensembles going cold this morning.

The ecm control says I'm smelling the pattern change...here it comes boys....you deserve it...your times a coming 

[Cloud 10]

Fantastic EPS this morning for week 2 and well worth a look some of the ENS beyond that.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=5&mode=11&ech=360

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Control a big improvement also for next weekend

[nick sussex]

Chasing European cold pools often sees a lot of shifting between runs because the models are sensitive to small changes .

Any cold the UK can latch onto initially is from the ne or east and so developments early on are important .

You want that small Scandi high holding in a ene wsw orientation and not slipping away too quickly .

Regardless the GFS 06 hrs run has edged towards the Euros and that’s a good sign .

Edited January 1 by nick sussex

[Mike Poole]

Baby steps towards the ECM/UKMO, that’s really all we need to see from the 6z, on to this afternoon’s runs.