Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

Mean at 228 more amplified west of Greenland - so lookout for some amazing charts in FI. This is brewing into something special - I expect a small upgrade on the METO forecast later !! And some tweets!! 

[northwestsnow]

Mean going Greeny route at day 9

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mean at 228 more amplified west of Greenland - so lookout for some amazing charts in FI. This is brewing into something special - I expect a small upgrade on the METO forecast later !! And some tweets!! 

I love it how you always ramp it up ali..top quality!

Edited January 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[booferking]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean going Greeny route at day 9

You can really see the sharpening up of that low of ESB pumping WAA into Greenland all gravy granules from here.

[Met4Cast]

Despite the chopping & changing what we're seeing being modelled is probably better than anything we've seen for a few years in terms of cold longevity, particularly at the surface. It seems we'll see less cold air filtering in aloft as the high sinks & then begins to retrogress but temperatures at the surface will remain cold throughout that process under an inversion. 

We then see a strong & growing signal for the high to pop over to Greenland bringing down some proper cold air & increasing snow risks, that's without mentioning the initial snow risk potential depending on how amplified the high gets.

A week of widespread (and potentially severe) frosts to prime the ground for the later settling snowfall.. feels a little bit like a 'classic' cold spell of old.

[Derecho]

 

A large number of ens members push the high far enough north to allow for a cold easterly feed into early next week. The further north it is the higher the possibility of some more interesting snow scenarios to emerge. Ideally we want a negative tilt (signs of ridging to the NW) as I think a clean retrogression to Greenland would deliver the most exciting cold prospects.

Something like these would do nicely

But after the awful December and the drenching here some settled weather is welcome..

Take these with a pinch of salt though as it is the GFS 06z.

I think we will either see a long anticyclonic period as worst case scenario... chilly easterly early next week and retrogression of the high to Greenland as the best case.

[Dorsetbred]

52 minutes ago, BIGDOG2 said:

How long before the met office start committing on these models 

Today's Deep Dive maybe

[Battleground Snow]

-18 northernly anyone?

Guess we will start seeing extreme members popping up now, one day it will land

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

-18 northernly anyone?

Guess we will start seeing extreme members popping up now, one day it will land

Christ!! Now that would give you day maximums of -5!

[snowblizzard]

528 DAM across much of the country.

Where will it go from here?

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

-18 northernly anyone?

Guess we will start seeing extreme members popping up now, one day it will land

Definitely one will land one day. We get used to awful winters but we can still get the synoptics to deliver cold or snowy weather. In the last 15 years we’ve had Feb 09, winter 09/10, Dec 10, Feb 12, Jan 13, Mar 13 and Feb/Mar 18. There were also decent cold spells in Dec 22 and Dec 23.

Hopefully we see what the models are showing come to fruition.

Im too long in the tooth on here to believe it yet but we are trending in the right direction.

I do think we are due something memorable though.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Mean at 276 hours from 6z GEFS

Looking good….

[winterof79]

Cracking start to January and as Met4 alluded to don't panic when they show a temporary rise as the high finds its home

 

Edited January 2 by winterof79

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, BIGDOG2 said:

How long before the met office start committing on these models 

The MO forecasts will be as usual - balanced and impartial - i.e. simply forecasting the weather without being sensationalist.

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Control 

There was a good post on here a few days ago about good reasons to ignore the control (can't just put my finger on it), I think due to its resolution - it's a futile exercise.

[NorthYorksWeather]

 

Me viewing the afternoon runs

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

The MO forecasts will be as usual - balanced and impartial - i.e. simply forecasting the weather without being sensationalist.

There was a good post on here a few days ago about good reasons to ignore the control (can't just put my finger on it), I think due to its resolution - it's a futile exercise.

I think it was if the control and op diverge, do not trust the ensemble suite for that particular run. If the op and control agree, more trust can be put into it

I think that was the gist anyway. As you say, it was a good post

Anyway, cold is nailed now. What type of cold we shall have to see. I still think people need to temper their expectations for the next 9 or 10 days (yes, I know, day 10 again) as, apart from Kent, Essex and maybe Sussex there probably won't be a lot of snow. Hard frosts will be the main feature. From next weekend (13th/14th), as I've said loads of times now, it looks as though it COULD become more dramatically wintry. Met Office updates will lead the way I reckon

MOGREPS 0z for London

Steady as she goes. Individual members obviously have different ideas on where the initial HP cell will settle. Sunday and Monday might see some wintry precip in the SE but the form horse is cold and dry before something might change (out of range for the MOGREPS graph) later next week

[Lukesluckybunch]

I'm just loving watching the models unfold right now..and seeing that ridge come into play every single time..and the excitement of what it may develop into..I really do love this and all the crew here.

[swfc]

 

11 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

 

Me viewing the afternoon runs

And NWS hyperventilating behind sofa

Edited January 2 by swfc

[nick sussex]

Thank heavens it was the ICON that pulled out that underwhelming run and not the GFS .

Encouraged to see the 06 hrs run stick with the high further north at least to get the e ne flow in .

[GSP]

16 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

 

Me viewing the afternoon runs

After viewing weather sites for 20 years plus now, this sums up my take as it stands.

[LRD]

18 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

 

Me viewing the afternoon runs

Nah. Relax. Cold is nailed down now. As I say, it's now just a matter of determining what type of cold weather we will end up with from Friday until late next week. I still say dry with increasingly hard frosts but some snow might sneak into the SE later this weekend/early next week

[minus10]

All good so far for the general theme of turning colder...

..the double dip showing nicely in the eps, geps and gefs..

Anons still look strong for mid month..eps and gefs..

...and thats a pretty good gefs mean for 14th January...

...so broadscale looking good...finer details still tbc...

In the short term..eg today as well as the copious rains i will have to batten down the hatches here..

..stay safe ..

 

[mountain shadow]

Little sign of anything proper wintry showing up on the TV yet, looks more UKMO/ECM than GFS.

 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Little sign of anything proper wintry showing up on the TV yet, looks more UKMO/ECM than GFS.

 

Embarrassing - using old data

Edited January 2 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Little sign of anything proper wintry showing up on the TV yet, looks more UKMO/ECM than GFS.

 

Even if we had minus 20 upper air over UK. I'm sure the BBC would have max temps of around  7 c over UK like they have before with cold weather

The Met will be  accurate but they won't commit yet. Too far out to be certain of anything. 

 

 

Edited January 2 by SLEETY