Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

I'll get your coat

He'll need it this month and early next

[AO-]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

 

I really think it depends on where you live. If I take my location, the suites could not have been more consistent without delaying cold. The cold is even progressing earlier in the timeframe. The 7th instead of the 8th with even a possibility of the 6th. All due to the Scandinavian high remaining at its post. 

[IDO]

The ECM is at the lower end of what I hoped for with the UK high, especially for the SE. Temps are below average but nothing below the norm, and we lose any continental air for most of the HP stay (6 days). I hoped for a cold feed then a stagnant pool over the south for a few days.

We shall see what the ens say, but this time yesterday, ECM was the best case, and now it's the worst case. Hopefully, it is not leading the way.

The 850s anomalies for the next ten days:

Other than that, it is consistent with the UK high, the mean suggested around five days. It looks unlikely that it will sink into the Azores high due to low heights in Europe, and the ESB high and the cut-off Azores low are being shown consistently run to run, model to model, as is the Pacific ridge and a favourable Artic high, all suggesting retrogressing between D8-D11 depending on the model or run. Hopefully, we can see that countdown and maybe small upgrades in the medium-term pre-D10.

 

Edited January 2 by IDO

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

 

The first easterly was never really going to offer anything.. At best ECM showed a short period of -10 uppers in the East more especially South East, which would have produced a bit of snow that would have melted low ground on most surfaces.

No downgrades at all, everything is going perfectly so far for a good long cold spell with perhaps a PV split/ Greenland high and a much colder injection of air from around 13th Jan.

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wasn't December 2010 like this..when we could see the evolution week's in advance and it just didn't change!

Even as recent as December 2022, I believe we had good ensemble agreement at day 10. Occasionally it ticks down nicely without much drama the forcing needs to be strong in such instances. 

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

 

I agree with all this.

[ScottSnow]

17 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

We’ve got agreement up to day 5ish.  Everything after that is up for grabs.  The trend is colder = good (if that’s what you like).  We all know what a naughty pop up shortwave can do….  Remember last year? so let’s just enjoy a bit of dry, crisp weather, we’ve had nothing but wet since June.  Then a bit of snow for the kids would be nice for a week or two…..

 

It depends where you live ?

Up here in the north east of England we had a decent spell of cold and snowy weather late Nov/early Dec. Parts of Cumbria had their biggest snowfall (albeit it melted quickly) for many a year as well. Parts of Scotland have had snow throughout the past week.

Looking at the models, I do think people were getting a bit too excited about the coming weekend. To my eyes the form horse was always going to be cold and dry (which does me fine).

The main thing is the trend this evening remains the same. High pressure migrating northwards next week. The Meto have stuck their neck out (compared to their usual fence sitting) with their Jan forecast and it’s exciting to see the models trending towards what the Meto have forecast.

There is going to be further ups and downs but I think we are heading in the right direction.

[John88B]

Some of the reactions on here from run to run do make me laugh.

Stay calm, the trend is our friend. It's going to get colder. How cold and for how long yet to be nailed down. The met office are on board too

After the utter dross we've been served up lately, Scotland excluded, cold lovers should be happy

[Duane S.]

34 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

PATIENCE..... 

Good luck with that on here! But seriously, looking fantastic for mid month. Anything before, as has always been the case, to be treated as a bonus

[Bradley in Kent]

2 minutes ago, AO- said:

I think this is the problem. 

Completely agree with this, we need the heights to push north quickly and cleanly where these features tend to slow things up which result in heights sinking back to the Med and allowing lows to march through again. 

Too many times have modelled cold spells been shelved because disturbances disrupted the northward migration of heights. At least the disturbance has been modelled, it's a fair warning to coldies that we are a very long way off and we can easily see a continuation of the last 3 weeks. 

All the best  

[That ECM]

12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

 

And even if it did all go “wrong” we will be back chasing again. You don’t stop supporting a football team just because they get relegated. 
 

it’s our passion and we love it.

[Scott Ingham]

40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Day 14 or 15 more likely I'm afraid. 

It’s always been the period after the uk high that’s of interest though. This next week was always a Uklandic High followed by retrogression really don’t get why people don’t understand this still?

[Djdazzle]

28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Awful Ecm hopefully it's wrong again.miles away from what it was showing 48 hours ago Not much cold around then looking like a topper at the end Uselesd

It’s not awful. Absolutely nothing to suggest a toppler. Ties in well with teleconnections and other global drivers.

[Scott Ingham]

43 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Are we really chasing day 10 charts again for something noteworthy..haha

Luke we were never chasing the first week in January. The best we were going to get his a high that ridges far enough north for a short lived comvective easterly

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Luke we were never chasing the first week in January. The best we were going to get his a high that ridges far enough north for a short lived comvective easterly

Bingo !!

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Where's this Hadley cell you speak of? 

 

Is that the 80's tribute band, A mash up of Tony Hadley and soft cell!.......Think one of the numbers they do is Tainted...COLD...always believe in your soul....

Oh dear ..on that bum note I'm off to watch the darts!

[E17boy]

Hi Peeps 

I know there is more hope of colder weather which is excellent compared to what we have had in December. However my only concern is the dry and frosty weather that keeps popping up. Yes it will be nice to have the cold but it will be such a big shame not to get any snow. I know it’s early days and a lot of you will say let the cold come and the snow will follow. However if we are to get any convection or features then the high has to be further north for us at least to tap into some continental flow. I really hope all the jigsaw pieces come together and that this spell of cold weather is not just going to be cold with harsh frost and we all have some snow chances.

 

regards

[Djdazzle]

I’m sure 1947 and December 1962 had UK highs which then retrogressed.

Some people are too impatient and obsessed with micro-scale changes from op run to op run.

Yes, this could all go wrong, but signs are good.

[Daniel*]

26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

 

I’m not really following you, this is trouble with over analysing singular det runs it skews the actual indication from model output . The GEFS are also coldest they’ve ever been in initial easterly attempt down to -8.2C on London on Monday, so rather the cold is upgrading while it will be dry for most. In terms of snow showers realistically this has only really favoured eastern and southeastern England and nothing significant there is still flexibility for these areas I feel whether more dry or not. I don’t know what you were expecting in south of Ireland but it was a foolish hope. I’d say we are in as good position as we can be for the start of January, sea surface temperatures will fall reducing CAA modification, ground temperatures will fall, it has been very mild in recent weeks. Today, 13.7C in Heathrow a spring value. Some areas are currently flooding so the opportunity to dry out is fantastic ans urgently needed, and well no snow will settle on flooded fields.
 

Edited January 2 by Daniel*

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Luke we were never chasing the first week in January. The best we were going to get his a high that ridges far enough north for a short lived comvective easterly

Ok Scott fair enough..just been teased a bit over the past couple of days..with the potential easterly setting up..particularly for the South and southeast..but the small chance seems to have gone now..I guess to go with the flow with what others are saying about midmonth.

[Troubleatmill]

9 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

Good luck with that on here! But seriously, looking fantastic for mid month. Anything before, as has always been the case, to be treated as a bonus

Agree with you there Duane. Anyhow, as the UK is one big flood zone at the moment it will take two weeks of high pressure to give the snow (that comes later) a fighting chance of sticking!

[Derecho]

I'd much rather the ensemble means come out first rather then the OP runs, emotions would be far more measured on here.

[Harsh Climate]

From viewing the 00z-12z runs yesterday it became clear that things were looking good for prolonged cold/snow potential, with mid month onwards looking most interesting! 

Yeah we had a little potential for a transient easterly 6-8th whatever it was but never was it more than a 10/20% chance of it being a snowmaker at any level..

Now today, it is steady as she goes, maybe the the chance of something much colder mid month has even increased a little. The gfs 12z essembles are atleast the best set yet.

[LRD]

8 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi Peeps 

I know there is more hope of colder weather which is excellent compared to what we have had in December. However my only concern is the dry and frosty weather that keeps popping up. Yes it will be nice to have the cold but it will be such a big shame not to get any snow. I know it’s early days and a lot of you will say let the cold come and the snow will follow. However if we are to get any convection or features then the high has to be further north for us at least to tap into some continental flow. I really hope all the jigsaw pieces come together and that this spell of cold weather is not just going to be cold with harsh frost and we all have some snow chances.

 

regards

As I and others have said quite a few times - and it's worth labouring the point again - a convective E'ly this weekend/next week was always the underdog option. The advice was to temper expectations on that. Briefly some models showed interest for the SE for that time period but there was never any real consistency behind it. And there was virtually no chance of snow shown for northern and central areas at any point (for next week). Frosty, dry conditions has been a very clear (pardon the pun) favourite for nearly a week

Edited January 2 by LRD

[stodge]

Evening all

More decent output though obviously still plenty to moan about for those who like a good moan.

The pattern of UK HP followed by retrogression is becoming more noted in the medium to longer term. The initial positioning of the UK HP still yet to be absolutely confirmed - here in downtown East London chances of a light E'ly or NE'ly remain.

In any case, classic retrogression can happen whether the HP is over the UK or slightly to the north and some of the later output is of course dramatic.

GFS has a push of -8 850s over southern and eastern England this weekend before slightly less cold air early next but the stage is then set for the retrogression. 

Worth saying of course we aren't there yet - retrogression doesn't happen that often and the risk is it can become a west-based NAO so we need to keep the ridge SE out of Greenland.

The 10HPA shows the weakened vortex under further attack as we move through mid month.