Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ice Day]

We're going to be in a holding pattern for a couple of days, before the finer details start to reveal themselves.  But just looking at the macro, the 18z day 10 chart is synoptically very impressive  I would be somewhat surprised if most areas don't see some proper winter weather within the next couple of weeks.  Best model watching for a couple of years if nothing else!

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

May struggle on this run too much high pressure in the Meditteranean.

Pressure is dropping over Europe as the trough drops down..watching that low near Portugal could ruin things

[northwestsnow]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Heavy and persistent frosty nights is a slight exageration. 0 to minus 2 across most areas in early January is nothing to write home about...

I spotted a -4 in Wales

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

Hope we don't get stuck in no-mans land for weeks with the high over us!

Sounds quite appealing to me if I'm honest...

Now for a random observation, I've noticed today that Meteociel has become the latest site to add MOGREPS (UK Met Office ensemble model), and they seem to have a few parameters that other sites don't, and more precise choice of location - I don't think they've got the whole of the UK covered though, just the southern half of Great Britain.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/mogreps2.php

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/mogreps_display.php?x=0&y=0&run=12&lat=50.804&lon=-1.978&runpara=0&col=1&type=10

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/mogreps_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=50.804&lon=-1.978&run=12&mode=2&sort=1

Edited January 2 by RainAllNight

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18z looking to be monumental…..direct Arctic hit incoming

 

BFTP

[Jason M]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes day 10 should be fine..

The story of this winter. If only we lived in day 10! I'd have had at least a couple of blizzards by now even here  

Seen this sort of thing many times over the years. Everything stays out at day 10 until one morning we log on to find a great big fat Bartlett is all over the charts at day 10 which of course verifies 

My guess is that we see the high sit on top of us for a good 10 days, we then get a brief but punchy northerly (2 day spell) and then a further UK high.

Edited January 2 by Jason M

[ICE COLD]

Carm down the 18z looks beautiful . 

[Duane S.]

Jeez. If this run is ‘sobering’, it shows what a good place we are in!

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 18z 

Looks like a classic 80s  high pressure turning cold then colder 

Makes you feel winter has arrived before the snow arrives a few days later ❄🌨❄

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Heavy and persistent frosty nights is a slight exageration. 0 to minus 2 across most areas in early January is nothing to write home about...

Lol.... It's a start. Most Januaries over the last 20 plus years can't even deliver this. Add to that the massive potential going forwards with the ever growing and irresistible trend of retrogression to Greenland. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Well....

[damianslaw]

Trend continues to be a settled outlook, after weeks of unsettled atlantic weather.

All eyes on where high pressure will sit. Initially over the UK to bring seasonal temps and a return of frost. Longer term signal grows we may import notable colder uppers from the north/ north east as it swings away to our NW. 

GFS18z shows it turning very cold and wintry.

[Ladyofthestorm]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

18z looking to be monumental…..direct Arctic hit incoming

 

BFTP

It's onto something 

[Ali1977]

And again it’s looking good - the ground will have dried out a little, the surface temp will be much colder after a week of frost - all ready for the big snow events and the deep freeze - memorable period starts this weekend

Edited January 2 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

We seem to be growing our own cold pool as we wait for Mr Arctic to call by.. 

[Snowman.]

Control BTW

[Harveyslugger]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Heavy and persistent frosty nights is a slight exageration. 0 to minus 2 across most areas in early January is nothing to write home about...

Not the smartest here but I think the temperatures would actually be much lower in reality than showed and gfs tends to overdo minimum temperatures

[Ali1977]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Control BTW

Very nice, as is the mean !! I can’t believe people were downbeat tonight - cold high followed by deep freeze - just perfect if it becomes reality 

[Bricriu]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

We seem to be growing our own cold pool as we wait for Mr Arctic to call by.. 

A bit disappointing from an imby perspective . I was hoping for ice days by this point, but if the high does go into Greenland  a couple of days later that will  be soon forgotten about  

[weathercold]

Some of the posts on here tonight are simply mind boggling. If these are ‘poor’ charts on the 18z and you’re a cold weather fan it’s time to find another hobby. The potential route we are finding ourselves on is as a rare as anything in many a year, potentially historic if our dice falls favourably. Some need to take a step back before posting these OTT, unhelpful one liners.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Bricriu said:

A bit disappointing from an imby perspective . I was hoping for ice days by this point, but if the high does go into Greenland  a couple of days later that will  be soon forgotten about  

Frost won’t be melting in 2/3 degrees, especially if freezing fog around - could get severely cold and that won’t be showing yet 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:

Not the smartest here but I think the temperatures would actually be much lower in reality than showed and gfs tends to overdo minimum temperatures

Agree with that, whilst not especially cold,uppers of 0 to -5 degrees under a slack airstream and a high direct over the UK with no atlantic feed in early-mid Jan will be cold. The minimal solar heating will help to hold temps down.

[cyclonic happiness]

Let's just hope it's not a dirty high. 

I don't think I could cope with a couple of weeks of anticyclonic gloom, not after such an awful winter so far 

[ICE COLD]

She’s a stunner again . Lovely run

[Met4Cast]

Some pretty widespread severe frosts on offer from the 18z despite it being less amplified than other runs/models. Quite a classic cold & dry period coming up!