Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[jamesgold]

METO Long range text does now include “cold easterly” for next week - good to see this level of agreement

[Northern Sky]

Regardless of whether it actually happens or not, watching this GFS run come out is a beautiful sight. 

[Day 10]

Brutal cold on this GFS serving.

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Right then peeps , cmon and own up , how many people early this morning were saying there was not going to be any easterly and that saga had passed .

Hands up - I thought the easterly had gone (3 days ago) and was wrong.  Unusual to see a reversal like that as @nick sussex said earlier.

4 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

GFS looks phenomenal this afternoon . Greenland high now looking odds on

 

1 minute ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

GEM at day 10. Taking a slightly different route but I image it will get there eventually. 

GFS looked to have the more tortuous journey than GEM to nail Greenland but seemingly gets there first!

[Jacob]

Hmmm

[LRD]

GFS producing one of those you-couldn't-draw-a-better-chart-if-you-tried (for UK cold) type runs in FI!

[Snowboy111]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

One of my favourite spells, the powder snow even made it to Merseyside, closing schools for a lovely nice long weekend of sledging!

We had a foot of snow here. Was incredible. Riding home from school was fun

[Jason M]

GFS opp brings home the Bacon at day 10. Who would gave guessed it 

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Sobering

In all seriousness, excellent run 

Wait until the 00z come out…

fantastic runs tonight, please let EC be on the same road!

sPV looks angry  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Seriously where is this gfs run going this is brutal cold coming up!

[Malarky]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Brutal cold on this GFS serving.

The symmetry of that is oddly satisfying. Excellent teamwork between the Atlantic and Pacific. Hopefully they can high-five over the pole.

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think people tend to just look at uppers and not the 500-850mb profile enough John?, -8c with 540(ish) dam heights wont cut it in my opinion, and that is assuming its snow that does fall when there is precipitation which is far from certain.

In the 'chase' for cold and snow,I do suspect this can be the case. But any prediction of ppn in any month that far ahead is often, say 2 out of 3 times, wrong for when/where/how much. That is often ignored in the hope for snow

 

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:

Regardless of whether it actually happens or not, watching this GFS run come out is a beautiful sight. 

My wife introduced me to Ginny and Georgia over the holiday. Can't say I was upset to meet Brianne Howey on screen for the first time.

GFS today is better.

[seabreeze86]

BANK  

Heavy snow showers from the word go 

[TSNWK]

double attack over the pole.... will it...

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Brutal cold on this GFS serving.

I want to see the purple making its way over us:). What would the day time temperatures be with this?

[Cold Winter Night]

A step back in time compared to the GFS FI output, but UKMO at 168h is excellent going forward too.
Not as messy as GFS was at that stage.

[Jacob]

Just now, Bricriu said:

I want to see the purple making its way over us:). What would the day time temperatures be with this?

Ice days

[seabreeze86]

Raging north Easterly followed by a deep cold easterly???

 

[Catacol]

And here we have it - @Scott Inghamday once again. There is a bit of a theme growing here....and all fun aside 15 Jan is rather consistently looking very tasty. Scott - how much for a day with your crystal ball?

[ICE COLD]

OMG was watching the icon at 3:15 had then do some work . Look back in 110.new posts = forum meltdown . Come on brilliant set of 12z in the short term and longer term can’t control myself

[Ice Day]

There's so much going on, it's hard to keep up.  But the GFS mean has also improved from this morning at 128.

 

And the GFS at 276 is providing a run for the ages!

 

To use a phrase from when I was a young boy, 'flipping heck Tucker' (if you know, you know!).

In all seriousness, this is one of the best runs I have ever seen, and will surely be at least a little watered down as time ticks down!?

[Jacob]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Raging north Easterly followed by a deep cold easterly???

 

If this verifies then this could be a very memorable cold spell 

[Purga]

Nicely on song with troughs in the N Sea heading our way

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Jan 9 2024

 

Feb 7 1991

Could just do with the models picking up and growing the little kink in the 2024 isobar over the Massif Central....

Just the deep cold pool missing then