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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

This is going cold quickly 😍

IMG_2366.png

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:

I'm a newbie.is that good or bad?😂

The negative tilt of the Low Pressure southern tip of Greenland is so mych more pronounced.  Blocking is massive…..not normally bad

 

BFTP

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Gregulator Explorer

Gregulator

Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
  • Weather Preferences: Winter spring autumn
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

This is going cold quickly 😍

IMG_2366.png

 

I wish that intense cold would slide into western Europe...and hurry up about it

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON 144 12Z V 6Z

image.thumb.png.ab224e764d5b76cbf8f85179416424ed.png

image.thumb.png.6bc3efab333a689aa8576910f398329e.png

That quickly escalated 

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)

Something I mentioned this morning...about getting a backdoor e/ne..this could happen here during the transition to greenland hopefully ..note that low is looking pretty deep to the sw!

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
Adding
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

WOW, I mean this is only 168 - follow that UKMO/GFS 

IMG_2367.png

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Author
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Posted

Very very good EPS at long range. Note the growing depth of the low pressure signal over the near continent, unusually deep given these signals usually fade the further out they go. 

image.thumb.png.06313e2f9360a0a73caea9cfeee10423.png

Got to be about the best long range EPS signal for a midwinter spell in the last dozen or so years.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted

image.thumb.png.8dffc3e47102a28eb057435a62715857.png
 

Left with a small amounts of energy over Greenland which is melting away quickly 36 hours later the high would have moved north west enough to bring in artic conditions into the UK

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

My word, that is one enormous 'slab' of cold waiting away to our north east on the Icon (apologies if I've gone too technical!)

image.thumb.png.17d8a0922f25f7fd4bde5946bb270ace.png

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TallPaul Aficionado

TallPaul

Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
Posted
17 minutes ago, Dxnielwashere said:

seems like later on in the month there will be snow showers but they must be very light.

... I'm very much a rebel, therefore I'm gonna say they 'must' be heavy! 

🌨️❄️🌨️😜

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stripeyfox Aficionado

stripeyfox

Posted
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Very very good EPS at long range. Note the growing depth of the low pressure signal over the near continent, unusually deep given these signals usually fade the further out they go. 

image.thumb.png.06313e2f9360a0a73caea9cfeee10423.png

Got to be about the best long range EPS signal for a midwinter spell in the last dozen or so years.

Can i just say how immensely helpful it is when posters add a little bit of commentary about the charts they are posting (as in this example), rather than just posting the charts.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted

Icon is gagging for it 😉

Nice little tweet from Judah here also. Slowly but surely I feel we are heading there..we cant be expecting upgrades every run,the idea being the output stays solid.

iconnh-0-156.png

Screenshot_20240104_153913_X.jpg

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

I see a different Icon.

Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess

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Harveyslugger Enthusiast

Harveyslugger

Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(180M ASL)
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(180M ASL)
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see a different Icon.

Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess

Ur the only one seeing the icon as negative:)

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

My word, that is one enormous 'slab' of cold waiting away to our north east on the Icon (apologies if I've gone too technical!)

image.thumb.png.17d8a0922f25f7fd4bde5946bb270ace.png

Indeed.  ICON T180:

IMG_8287.thumb.jpeg.0f68a81820af9c1c09013706dc8b5835.jpeg

WAA is to the west of Greenland (red arrow) which is the best place for it, some chicanery needed for our high to link with that and move into Greenland (black arrow), and then that ‘slab’, as you put it, can head on south (blue arrow)!  I’m sure we’ll see that pan out on the models that run longer than T180.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see a different Icon.

Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess

I had assumed next week's 'cold' (really just more seasonal) was always going to be a dry and cold affair anyway? If it's just cold you're after then you don't need cold uppers under high pressure this time of year. 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see a different Icon.

Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess

Run the sequence and tell me which way the high is moving?

What is happening over Greenland 

What is happening over Scandinavia?

that sequence tells you the high is moving north west, heights are increasing over Greenland and cold air has flooded our north east.

at no point can we say we don’t know where that high is going, it’s not going south east is it? Or east or south west?

it is funny how we all see the charts.

 

Edited by frosty ground
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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

Run the sequence and tell me which way the high is moving?

What is happening over Greenland 

What is happening over Scandinavia?

that sequence tells you the high is moving north west, heights are increasing over Greenland and cold air has flooded our north east.

at zero poo g can we say we don’t know where that high is going, it’s not going south east is it? Or east or south west?

it is funny how we all see the charts.

 

There's a good chance that cold to east would arrive..the angle looks like it may do!

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ScottSnow Aficionado

ScottSnow

Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
Posted
3 hours ago, chris78 said:

I'm no expert on the charts, but I have been coming here for around 15 years.  In that time there have been 2 what you might call historic cold spells, 2010 2018.   There has been maybe 10 times the models have suggested similar spells only for them not to happen.   During the build up to those non events,  anyone who is cautious gets criticised.  

Yeah I just got my 20 year badge on here a few weeks ago and I understand your point of view.

I do feel we are heading in the right direction but I won’t get excited until the charts are a day or two away.

’Once bitten, twice shy’ as the saying goes.

Hopefully we get over the line this time.

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