Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Garthvader]

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

The Mancs, the Scousers & the Irish complained

So GFS delivered -

Yep snow shields !!

[northwestsnow]

EC V GFS 72

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a signal for a ridge to our west and pressure lowering to our east for week 2. All thanks to heights near the UK retrograding towards Greenland. 

  
 

The reason why we are seeing consistent charts is because this type of evolution tends to be quite reliable to predict. Hopefully the models will hold firm on this evolution and the detail of any north to north east flow becomes clearer. Hopefully we won’t see the models trying to accelerate the retrograde either via the total drainage of low heights over Canada or the high merging with heights in the Pacific (both tends to quickly break down blocking in the Atlantic).

Let’s see what the ECM delivers, at the moment next week is looking dry with the risk of wintry flurries or drizzle at times. So week 2 is going to be the main focus.

For what it is worth the heights are day 3 on the ECM are a little further north than yesterdays day 4.

Edited January 4 by Captain Shortwave

[weirpig]

This may end up not being so dry as some think for the initial easterly at least 

 

[The Northern Ramper]

18 minutes ago, Purga said:

The Mancs, the Scousers & the Irish complained

So GFS delivered -

Oh my days

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Sooooooo when are we allowed to tell friends/family? 

13th

 

BFTP

[on the coast]

15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

There is someone who doesn’t post on here who is professional who has taught me a lot and one day I will thank him and name him for the time he’s spent learning me and giving me access to gdsm products that I shouldn’t really have but after this year the respect I have for this science id honestly say to enthusiasts please do some learning it’s the future of weather forecasting I have no doubt about it! If I showed people my notes and messages you would not believe the success I’ve had from this in 2023. It’s pushing on 85% forecast success for 3-4 weeks ahead of time!

Now you have done it. The15% fail is coming.  To be fair cross model agreement like this is very unusual and most Op's are singing from the same hymn sheet.

[Stuie]

That`s a nippy 7 day 2m temp for the South coast / Dorset. A proper winter feel, cold and dry, nice.

[The Northern Ramper]

The charts are lovely but keep calm people there’s water left to go under the bridge.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, Ramp said:

The charts are lovely but keep calm people there’s water left to go under the bridge.

A lot of it by the looks of it looking at the current radar!  

[Scott Ingham]

39 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Control at 240!

Another corking run.

The mean is fabulous at the same time

Three waves of amplification driving heat right into the pole! The Siberian one interest me as this is where Greenland heights could merge with scandi ones for Week 3. Won’t show yet but may do by middle of next week. I’m thinking of where an extension of cold come from now. It will either extend or relax then we see another spell in early Feb maybe end of Jan! What a winter!

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Ramp said:

The charts are lovely but keep calm people there’s water left to go under the bridge.

Or ice?

I’ve been quite cautious, but it’s hard not to get excited by the current output.

[ICE COLD]

Nice pool of -10 850s on the ECM at T96

Edited January 4 by ICE COLD

[That ECM]

T96 it’s raw.

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nice pool of -10 850s on the ECM at T96

Looks like a nice starter in preparation for the main course.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nice pool of -10 850s on the ECM at T86

You've missed the -11 near Southend

In all seriousness though -12/-13 isn't out of the question with  decent precipitation for favoured spots once it gets down to t24

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T96 it’s raw.

That’s not raw for the South….it’s perishing

 

BFTP

[Kiwi]

 

[Purga]

Far fewer mild runs after 14th. Cold run clustering bringing the mean down.

06z                                                                    12z

[snowking]

I can’t remember the last time I saw so much of the tropospheric vortex shifted over to the eastern half of the northern hemisphere. Even in 2010 I think there was more residual low heights left to our west than we are currently seeing forecast via ensemble means.

Truly astonishing Synoptics on offer. Prepare for the shortwave dramas as we feel this into higher resolution timeframes and we see the effect of all that cold air interacting with some warmer than average SST’s

The current envelope given the range offers a lot of high risk, high reward in terms of snowfall potential. But if nothing else let’s enjoy seeing a near flawless countdown from seasonal modelling > GSDM > NWP of some significant blocking across the northern hemisphere.

At least another 5 days of hiding behind the sofa waiting to get into accurate range of international @Scott Ingham day. 

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nice pool of -10 850s on the ECM at T86

-11c over my place wheres the streamer posters gone? Or is it a odd flake in the wind?

[northwestsnow]

EC looks fine to me..

EC V GFS 120

[weirpig]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC looks fine to me..

EC V GFS 120

Looks better than the 0z run imo 

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks fine to me..

EC V GFS 120

More like UKMO than GFS? Quicker route to cold than the GFS run potentially.

[swfc]

Things looking great for at least some colder, drier weather with  blocking. Keep that powder dry and wait to be reining in any epic outlook.