Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Surely the UKMO is not gonna be wrong with the uppers starting at T84 . -12s In the south east . I’d ignore the gfs at this early time frame surely ? 

Yes the high Res models agree with much lower uppers too, so gfs is having a bit of bad time in the early timeframe.

[ScottSnow]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If the GFS is right (it's a MASSIVE if), then it'll be a huge dent in the confidence of long range models, teleconnections and global drivers. It would, for me, be the final time that I ever trust them.

If the GFS in wrong (far more likely), it just reinforces the fact that it's a hopeless model.

ECM 12z will be a key run. I'd like to see the GFS also backtrack.

Reading this thread over the past few days there has been so much self congratulation at charts +240hrs away. We may still see a decent spell of cold weather but it just seemed premature to me to be saying it’s a done deal.

Hopefully this wobble is just that and we see the clean evolution return.

The GFS has led us up the garden path so many times and let us down.

[Paul_1978]

May be of interest!

 

[cheshire snow]

Isn’t this just typical of the GFS though.

shows you filth one day then goes AWOL to suddenly showing the filth again.its either picked up a new signal or its going off on one.not to be discounted of course,but I think its been barking up the wrong tree for the last few runs.

we will see.

[Lukesluckybunch]

A lot of members seem to be going with the op at day 8..a bit concerning

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The sudden massive changes in amplitude across southern greenland on last few gfs runs is something to behold!!!!doesnt mean its correct though!!!!gfs was wrong as early as 48 hours yesterday on the 06z yesterday for the colder easterly on monday but came back around on the 12z!!!

Not long to wait until the 06 ECM

I'm feeling pretty model fatigued at the moment!

But it's one of the best model watching periods we've have for a while, especially in a January 

Edited January 5 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

I think gfs is having one of those wobbles and shall come back around in the next couple of runs!!!ideally i wana see the ecm 06z bring in that colder easterly to bolster that high a bit further north and west!!hopefully it happens...

[IDO]

This JFF FI chart sums up the UK chances:

[Met4Cast]

GEFS so far trending more blocked compared with the 00z. James Peacock tweeted that it could be the classic GFS reverting to default bias in the extended when it struggles to handle split flows/undercutting, something which happens less frequently since the recent updates but could still be present. 

If the EPS begin to back away from decent blocking on this evenings run i'll be concerned but so far away from the GFS everything is mostly the same. No real worries from me yet.

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

A lot of members seem to be going with the op at day 8..a bit concerning

The mean seems improved to me on the 0z at first glance though?

[warrenb]

It goes wrong at 180, it should undercut the low but doesn't and just sits it in mid atlantic. I am guessing this model has issues with split flow (sorry if already been said), but this is a classic split flow situation and it just doesn't know how to handle it.

Edited January 5 by warrenb

[Paul]

Just as a reminder, since a few posts have already been moved in there. If you just want to moan (or ramp for that matter) without any discussion of the actual model output, please head to the dedicated moans and ramps thread:

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99729-moans-and-ramps/?do=getNewComment

 

[Rob 79812010]

Any normal winter and I'd be chuffed with the GFS output this morning. Think this is good as our expectations are rightly heightened!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

The mean seems to be ok at day 9..but it's gives me the impression more of an Atlantic ridge.rather the a gh!

[Froze were the Days]

9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Isn’t this just typical of the GFS though.

shows you filth one day then goes AWOL to suddenly showing the filth again.its either picked up a new signal or its going off on one.not to be discounted of course,but I think its been barking up the wrong tree for the last few runs.

we will see.

I've been saying it for years...in possible northern blocking scenario's it goes from one extreme (47/63 white out det runs) to completely backing down, at a certain range it's useless only occasionally does it pick out trends.

[MJB]

Mean at 228h

[weathercold]

It’s worth noting Marco (UK Met) alluded to models overdoing Greenland blocking. Have we seen this over recent days - leading us up the garden path possibly. Are recent gfs runs more realistic as to where we are heading.

With so much potential on offer I think this fail if indeed we see one will hurt more than any other. The lack of ‘pro’s’ Onboard is concerning.

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The mean seems to be ok at day 9..but it's gives me the impression more of an Atlantic ridge.rather the a gh!

Or impression of cold from the N/NE  

[weathercold]

Just now, MJB said:

Mean at 228h

Not great - mid block there 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, weathercold said:

It’s worth noting Marco (UK Met) alluded to models overdoing Greenland blocking. Have we seen this over recent days - leading us up the garden path possibly. Are recent gfs runs more realistic as to where we are heading.

With so much potential on offer I think this fail if indeed we see one will hurt more than any other. The lack of ‘pro’s’ Onboard is concerning.

To be fair he was talking more specifically about MSLP values over Greenland due to the height modelling over estimates the gap, 500hPa charts are not impacted by this issue. 

[Dennis]

NOAA forecast on greenland ideas later

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Mean at 228h

Good to see no purples around greenland canada

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I've been saying it for years...in possible northern blocking scenario's it goes from one extreme (47/63 white out det runs) to completely backing down, at a certain range it's useless only occasionally does it pick out trends.

The good news though is that the day 12 charts that everybody will get depressed about today are just as big a waste of pixels as the day 12 charts people were ramping yesterday .

If we look at todays output in the still long range but slightly more realistic day 8 range things haven't changed very much at all overnight. We still 'might' get a very cold outbreak, its still 'likely' to be short lived but its way out in la la land and it will be end of the weekend before we have a better idea.

We have been in worse positions in recent years!

[Ben Sainsbury]

9 minutes ago, weathercold said:

It’s worth noting Marco (UK Met) alluded to models overdoing Greenland blocking. Have we seen this over recent days - leading us up the garden path possibly. Are recent gfs runs more realistic as to where we are heading.

With so much potential on offer I think this fail if indeed we see one will hurt more than any other. The lack of ‘pro’s’ Onboard is concerning.

More of the fact as a professional meteorologist, we cannot jump to conclusions when looking at model output at T240. Our job is to consider all the possibilities and communicate this in a way to the general public that is easily understood. I think Liam Dutton does this perfectly in the tweet posted above.

Edited January 5 by Ben Sainsbury

[Continental Climate]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

The good news though is that the day 12 charts that everybody will get depressed about today are just as big a waste of pixels as the day 12 charts people were ramping yesterday .

If we look at todays output in the still long range but slightly more realistic day 8 range things haven't changed very much at all overnight. We still 'might' get a very cold outbreak, its still 'likely' to be short lived but its way out in la la land and it will be end of the weekend before we have a better idea.

We have been in worse positions in recent years!

I agree let's see where we are come Monday morning. I know many of us want 2010 redux but that was a once in a hundred year event. For me some hard frosts and possible freezing fog and potential ice days will do just fine. I think this is pretty much guaranteed for much of next week. The following week starting the 15th is still ten days away so anything is possible. Personally I don't think narnia is on the way but just enjoy the cold and frost if you can. It can produce lovely picturesque scenes in itself.