Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

ICON 18z would produce several cm 2-8cm Kent Sussex into East London Monday/Tuesday with more widespread flurries further North.

Yes its kind of creeping up on us last few hours!! Worth noting gem for first to upgrade!! It's a slice of deep cold that has the ability to produce

[northwestsnow]

EC GFS very close at 144 now ...

156...

[Lukesluckybunch]

Here we go at 156..a potential link up with the arctic high!?

[TSNWK]

Looks lovely here at day 6.5… can it buck the trend of previous gfs and ecm 12z and keep with Greenland heights

[Johnp]

7 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Pacific heights towards the pole are greater though which doesn't bode well for the Greenland block as the ECM showed...

Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything. 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC GFS very close at 144 now ...

I do think that cold pool is very important in the early timeframe as it props the high up, ukmo had the deepest cold pool, especially when compared to the ecm.

Fascinating watching 

[ICE COLD]

Gfs looks better than the ECM at 162 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Johnp said:

Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything. 

I think it’s because to be there it needs a counter weight low and that is trough over Greenland but we want a high there…

[Johnp]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I do think that cold pool is very important in the early timeframe as it props the high up, ukmo had the deepest cold pool, especially when compared to the ecm.

Fascinating watching 

I miss the old days when the runs would stop at 144hrs. We’d all be heading to bad in a positive mood!

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Looks lovely here at day 6.5… can it buck the trend of previous gfs and ecm 12z and keep with Greenland heights

Shortwave coming out of the Atlantic low towards Greenland still looks an annoyance though.

Edited January 5 by Mcconnor8

[northwestsnow]

18z v 12z 168

 

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything. 

Too strong and it could become the more 'dominant' high as it sucks away heights from Greenland

This GIF from ECM shows it well

 

[January Snowstorm]

The control has much colder uppers in the South now aswell, and hence stronger convection. Erm, this could deliver for the Southeast and my own area!!

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything. 

It saps them away because they connect and build together. 

[seabreeze86]

Huge changes over the pole on the GFS  

[Challock Weather]

9 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Mention of Hill snow on local Met update for London&the SE finally! But national weather not mentioning anything just dry. Well here's the latest tale from Ventuskys Icon precip charts- 

 

Looks like a Kent&Medway& East Coast Clipper gradually becomes a bit of a  Thames Streamer down to the south coast& IOW and a few isolated wintery showers further west as the winds turn more E of NE nothing major but would be nice to see it come off! 

Fingers Hoping it might upgrade a bit as the hours tick down 

[Richard Fisher]

43 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

You might want to re-read it if that was your take from it..

I have and I see nothing mentioned regards anything really cold or widespread snow up to 19 Jan as per update. Its their update which includes 20 Jan onwards which looks more promising.

 

 

 

 

[on the coast]

And here comes the Holy Grail for cold fans. LOL. Nice to see though.

[ICE COLD]

This looks better I think . 

[Ali1977]

Primed at T180

[Johnp]

This looks better than 12z,  but really complex goings on over Greenland and the Arctic. 

This won’t be clear until Monday at the earliest. It’s gonna be a long weekend!

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Primed at T180

What’s gonna bloomin scupper it this time…..

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Mention of Hill snow on local Met update for London&the SE finally! But national weather not mentioning anything just dry. Well here's the latest tale from Ventuskys Icon precip charts- 

 

Looks like a Kent&Medway& East Coast Clipper gradually becomes a bit of a Thames Streamer down to the south coast& IOW and a few isolated wintery showers further west as the winds turn more E of NE nothing major but would be nice to see it come off! 

Yup could def see a few cms from this set up. Locally more for those in the firing line.

North Kent generally benefit well from this set up, from the streamer type formation as well as the advantage of having orographic lift from 0-200m plus in a few miles. 

Though anyone on the north sea coast and further inland could benefit depending on wind direction and intensity and how far inland they get. 

Usual spots at higher elevation could do well along North Downs of Kent from Biggin Hill along to Detling Hill, and in between like Lordswood, Walderslade, BlueBell Hill etc. 

[pinball wizard]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

why oh why oh why are we still looking beyond 5 days for the supposed weather lets get the next 3 - 5 days agreed and then after that will come into scope. a typical example of looking too far ahead is that yesterdays weather was hardly mentioned in the model threads yet made national headlines for flooding. where were the model posts concerning a day ahead for weather? i really do despair when people look too far in advance for what might happen according to a computer output. ho hum ...

Totally agree, the absence of discussion regarding this weeks storms and subsequent flooding really has made a mockery of this being a 'model discussion thread'. It's been solely focussed on the hunt for snow and more akin to a how and when will it snow thread.

[sheikhy]

Surely the freeze is coming on this run?!!!!!