Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

So the threat of snow showers tomorrow is the South..chiefly the southeast corner..?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM extended clusters T264+:

I think these are a big improvement on the last few suites in this timeframe, because the uncertainty looks to be reduced, there is at least a signal here. There are two clusters (1&3) which are broadly looking to continue the pattern, together these have 28 members.  The other two clusters look more mobile.

Cluster 1 looks amazing , that really would be a prolonged cold spell. Hoping to see some supporting tweets from a the pro’s if we are to go very cold - the next METO 10 day trend could be a good watch. 

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

So the threat of snow showers tomorrow is the South..chiefly the southeast corner..?

Midlands south according to most models - although the SE more chance of some heavier streamers. 

[cheshire snow]

12 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

We should have a sweepstake on who’s going to be the first “it”ll never get cold” member who seeks out the breakdown. Sure to be from Cheshire.

Rude

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,ECM finally coming on board with others regarding an extended cold period,still open regarding temperatures -10 hpa a loft never far away could still become severe especially in northern areas so going to feel this possible long fetched cold/verycold period.

Good to see ECM coming on board. Hopefully we might see disturbances in the Northerly flow as the uppers below -5c approach us.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So the threat of snow showers tomorrow is the South..chiefly the southeast corner..?

Maidstone area would be my shout to see as much as most.

[AFCBSNOW]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Maidstone area would be my shout to see as much as most.

Well it won't be us in Bournemouth lol. My partner lives on the Thames estuary and we have actually watched these streamers come in and what looks like a small accumulation, actually ends up being a dumping, especially 2 plus Miles in land. Definite nowcasting. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Maidstone area would be my shout to see as much as most.

Potentially spreading westward as the day goes on..into central southern England..as the winds turn more easterly

[LRD]

EC46

Good for this week and next

Week of 22 Jan is a complete flip to mild with high anomalies to our south

Rest of run toys with ideas of high anomalies being to our west and/or NW. But the signal isn't quite as robust as it has been. No signal for scandi heights, which is a shame

Overall more good than bad for UK cold but it's a bit 'meh' compared to what it has been showing previously

[nick sussex]

The UKV has -13 850 hitting the se coast .

We’ve had many past winters  and not seen that sort of value . It’s a shame we don’t have much instability to work with .

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The CPC is still rock solid

[bluearmy]

Day 8 on the eps for the mar has taken us back to where we were on the fri 00z run for heights into s Greenland 

 

Edited January 7 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

I sincerely hope the models have now reached their respective tipping point now and all roads lead to cold reloads?! …surely coldies deserve some luck..don’t we? …for sure, it’s going to be interesting to see how this evolves regarding week 2!….enjoy the ride  

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The UKV has -13 850 hitting the se coast .

We’ve had many past winters  and not seen that sort of value . It’s a shame we don’t have much instability to work with .

 

 

Yes - pity you don't have the same 500mb heights as feb 1st 09. Low 520s dam with -13c, at this time of year - much earlier (warmer SST's) you would get a proper tonking - absolutely smashed.

[Met4Cast]

Early EPS ensembles show a rather large upgrade in clustering, far fewer milder members..

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

EC46

Good for this week and next

Week of 22 Jan is a complete flip to mild with high anomalies to our south

Rest of run toys with ideas of high anomalies being to our west and/or NW. But the signal isn't quite as robust as it has been. No signal for scandi heights, which is a shame

Overall more good than bad for UK cold but it's a bit 'meh' compared to what it has been showing previously

Thankfully that was run on earlier data, so the EC46 could be much better if run just now. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - pity you don't have the same 500mb heights as feb 1st 09. Low 520s dam with -13c, at this time of year - much earlier (warmer SST's) you would get a proper tonking - absolutely smashed.

What in Cyprus?

[southbank]

Apologies for my ignorance - is the Ec46 updated daily or weekly . Just seems reading the updates people kindly put on here it flips about all over the place - specially wk 3/4 . Is it renown for being a good indicator over a ; week period ?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Early EPS ensembles show a rather large upgrade in clustering, far fewer milder members..

Loving that - I won’t say we are home and dry for the real cold spell to start around the 14th - but that is a very tight cluster. 

[LRD]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Thankfully that was run on earlier data, so the EC46 could be much better if run just now. 

Indeed. And it's still ok for very late Jan into Feb anyway

Just now, southbank said:

Apologies for my ignorance - is the Ec46 updated daily or weekly . Just seems reading the updates people kindly put on here it flips about all over the place - specially wk 3/4 . Is it renown for being a good indicator over a ; week period ?

Daily

It's been very consistent over the last week but tonight it's not as good for UK cold. But, as Ali has pointed out, it was run with earlier data so may flip back to better tomorrow evening

It's not to be totally trusted, of course, but it's a model by the respected ECM and well worth keeping an eye on I reckon

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

EC46

Good for this week and next

Week of 22 Jan is a complete flip to mild with high anomalies to our south

Rest of run toys with ideas of high anomalies being to our west and/or NW. But the signal isn't quite as robust as it has been. No signal for scandi heights, which is a shame

Overall more good than bad for UK cold but it's a bit 'meh' compared to what it has been showing previously

Later gefs going with an Atlantic approach from the south west.

Too soon to know if we get a battleground snow event.Could be interesting if the block proves stronger.

[sunnijim]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

@Battleground Snow just to add ecm now has under -11 850s for tomorrow what the hell!!!!!

Seems to be playing catch up with the opening gambit( smelling the coffee in pretty much a nowcast scenario) in this cold spell and now the second course next weekend.

The relectence to get on board might be understandable given that we can never forget THAT ECM from years past

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Early EPS ensembles show a rather large upgrade in clustering, far fewer milder members..

Best cluster we’ve had for the 15th so far in my opinion! 

[WYorksWeather]

ECM mean post 15th has corrected downward again, now reaching -6C. Will be interesting to see what it shows for the 20th and beyond but too early to say anything particularly conclusive about whether we'll see a return to mild around then whatever it shows.

Edited January 7 by WYorksWeather

[sheikhy]

Just to give you an idea how utterly terrible the ecm has been for mondays easterly check out the 12z from yesterday for monday to todays 12z for the same time!!look how far north the coldest 850s have travelled!!!!.....

 

[tight isobar]

A very impressive MST-12z this evening.

Edited January 7 by tight isobar