Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[ANYWEATHER]

I think the pivotal date to keep your eyes on, is this weekend where there is more or less an agreement from  gfs and ecm of putting some meat on the bones , of a decent shot of proper winter cold and the caveats of snow as well. It may well be that once that cold block is established across the UK,  then we may see the classic winter battleground of mild air trying to push up from the southwest and turning to snow as it does. Its been hinted on already. A way to go before then but I'm watching this weekend, closely as the potential for the floodgates of cold to envelope the uk ,which may in turn give us the goods that winter lovers really want. ....

[Lukesluckybunch]

More of the same from icon at 120..a slight shift east with the trough..hopefully a more direct hit..down the line

[danm]

I’m from the south, and whilst yes it’s true we don’t tend to do well from convective showers in a northerly (easterlies are better for us in that regard), some of our biggest snowfalls have come from embedded cold due to an artic northerly and troughs developing or low pressure systems bumping up into entrenched cold. 

Get winds to veer to the NE or NW rather than a straight northerly and many more areas then also become prone to snow showers too.

Edited January 8 by danm

[MattStoke]

ICON upgrade on snow shower risk for today/tonight. This model tends to struggle with shower development beyond very short range.

[Northern Sky]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent runs this morning..

Trend is very good and its about ruddy time we saw a cold spell in the middle of January !!

I think we got lucky but this cold spell will have to go some to beat Jan 21 in my location, which saw 2 great snowfalls - followed by another on Feb 2nd. 

Looking at the models this morning I can understand the worries of some in the far south as it's very fine margins with many runs to go before the cold arrives and therefore opportunities for the cold to move incrementally further north. 

Here's hoping it goes the other way and we can see some cold and snow for all.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The latest synoptics strongly favour Northern regions with the South at mercy of milder incursions.

Clearly nowhere near as good as the models were showing a few days ago with everything watered down.

The most misleading post of the day and why so many get confused 

 

BFTP

[Ice Day]

Another good set of overnight runs.  Within in the 120-144 timeframe, they're pretty much all amazing, thereafter there's a gradual divergence.  The UKMO at 168 for me is the best and cleanest solution.

The others look a little more precarious to me, especially for the South as they move through days 8-10 with more than a hint of west-based -NAO about them.  But I'd say for the north of England and Scotland, these would deliver something pretty notable.

That said, at that range, the charts are going to change, perhaps for the worse, hopefully for the better.  

As a long-term avid NWP watcher, it does not get better than this. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON upgrade on snow shower risk for today/tonight. This model tends to struggle with shower development beyond very short range.

What i can say is there's alot of ppn towards France and Belgium now crossing the channel i think tonights going to be alot more active than people think

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Another good set of overnight runs.  Within in the 120-144 timeframe, they're pretty much all amazing, thereafter there's a gradual divergence.  The UKMO at 168 for me is the best and cleanest solution.

The others look a little more precarious to me, especially for the South as they move through days 8-10 with more than a hint of west-based -NAO about them.  But I'd say for the north of England and Scotland, these would deliver something pretty notable.

That said, at that range, the charts are going to change, perhaps for the worse, hopefully for the better.  

As a long-term avid NWP watcher, it does not get better than this. 

Great post.

Amongst many this morning..

Appealing to people not to get drawn into North v south spats there is ALWAYS regional differences in winter ...

Let's get the cold in and worry about the rest later

[GokouD]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON upgrade on snow shower risk for today/tonight. This model tends to struggle with shower development beyond very short range.

Hmm right over my house in the Midlands...Even if it's just a dusting it would make things nice and wintery, and stick around for a couple of days while it's cold. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The most misleading post of the day and why so many get confused 

 

BFTP

Tell me this then - Where have the sub -10’s and NE’lies gone that were showing up in the models last week ?

 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Great post.

Amongst many this morning..

Appealing to people not to get drawn into North v south spats there is ALWAYS regional differences in winter ...

Let's get the cold in and worry about the rest later

Absolutely this.  If it doesn't happen in my location, I love to see fellow snow-starved members get their fair share (It's not just the south that's had a rum time of it!!!).

Let's hope we all get a healthy dollop (technical term).

And while I'm typing this, it's snowing here 

[Grimplet]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Tell me this then - Where have the sub -10’s and NE’lies gone that were showing up in the models last week ?

 

Nobody's fault mate. Just what the models are showing currently. Probably be different come Wednesday.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Absolutely this.  If it doesn't happen in my location, I love to see fellow snow-starved members get their fair share (It's not just the south that's had a rum time of it!!!).

Let's hope we all get a healthy dollop (technical term).

And while I'm typing this, it's snowing here 

Lucky for you hopefully they spread west..during the day..havnt seen even a flake of snow for couple years!

[Neilsouth]

8 hours ago, joggs said:

The models are trending pretty much the same over the last 5 days or so in my eyes. Promising nirvana at day 10.

No matter how much we all wish for the deep cold,snow,I can't see it coming. 

Expectations need to be roped in imo,then if the unexpected does happen..........Boom 

 

Wasn't the switch over to much colder weather always beginning around the 14th/15th of Jan and after that we have different ideas on the table?

[Bazza118]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

 

Wasn't the switch over to much colder weather always beginning around the 14th/15th of Jan and after that we have different ideas on the table?

The 14th/15th is when the much colder conditions (ice days) are forecast to supposidly filter across the UK, until then we have a week of cooling taking place. The old addage is get the cold in and the snow will follow, i'm sticking with that for now.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Tell me this then - Where have the sub -10’s and NE’lies gone that were showing up in the models last week ?

 

1. Not getting NE’lies is not a downgrade especially when deep cold is still flooding in.  Different parts of the country fair better from different directions.  Eg N/Nw or E with cold embedded.

2. Thanks for explaining your viewpoint.  you are quantifying a downgrade from ‘some’ runs that were showing cold of an extra-ordinary level.  now we can see why you say there’s a downgrade and yes a slight downgrade from ‘them’ runs.

Now compared to many runs on the weekend we have been upgraded

BFTP

 

 

[frosty ground]

06z run out to 114 and nothing much has changed as you would expect.

think we can safely say by day 6/7 the second lot of artic air will arrive.

need to watch the low pressure as it develops moving south on day 7/8 shallow feature produced less of a mild sector, or the pattern to back west ward slightly.

as with all output some change will benefit other areas more than others

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

06z run out to 114 and nothing much has changed as you would expect.

think we can safely say by day 6/7 the second lot of artic air will arrive.

need to watch the low pressure as it develops moving south on day 7/8 shallow feature produced less of a mild sector, or the pattern to back west ward slightly.

as with all output some change will benefit other areas more than others

Polar heights looking stronger again than the 0z, hopefully will lead to the Vortex being pushed further South later on in the run

[That ECM]

Cut off high? No, like the run though.

Edited January 8 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looking almost perfect at day 6

[Ice Day]

The 6z at day 6 is much cleaner around Greenland, *should* be a good run coming up

[frosty ground]

on this run we have a feature developing over Iceland that has help shift the pattern west slightly, could have a knock on affect latter on with the next parcel of energy that spills out of Greenland.

also bring into play the low to the south west potentially a large snow machine if conditions support it

[Weathizard]

Improvements again

[MidnightSnow]

37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON upgrade on snow shower risk for today/tonight. This model tends to struggle with shower development beyond very short range.

 

First time I've seen the ppn reach as far as the West Country / South Wales. Fully expecting the showers to fizzle out before then but maybe not