Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

The op is clearly wrong - just await the ENS to come out

[offerman]

6 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

It’s not negative at all I’ve been following charts for 15 years and I know where this is going we all get our hopes up every single year every time we see decent outputs but it gets watered down and eventually we get nothing we haven’t had anything significant UK wide since  2018 and I can’t see that changing either 

Completely agree with you I’ve stated that several times before that everything seems to get watered down more often than not.  But being constructive moving forwards, I would really like to see the amount of times these charts have gone wrong fed into a system That could potentially improve accuracy or reduce the amount of times this happens. I don’t just mean because people like myself want to see some cold and snow. I mean from an interested point of perspective whether it’s rain heat thunderstorms snow if there could be a way to identify when something was forecast did not happen what was the outcome and keep feeding those patterns in to system so for long-term benefits I wonder if then the chances and ratios could be increased for accuracy no matter what the weather is
. 

I know it’s becoming extremely difficult to forecast the weather as with Arctic high-pressure systems in a mess and on a day-to-day basis seems to be difficult to forecast what’s going on up there also combined with a warmer sea temperature than normal and also the fact of subtropical, high-pressure belt slightly further north and also expanding and strengthening Hadley Cell. 
weather pattern seem to be slightly more clearcut years ago, whereas now everything does seem to be in much more of a mess, so if they could start feeding in to a system all the predictions all of the outcomes to then improve pressure charts, moving forward.

I would also like to see if there’s a possible way to track underwater volcanic activity and also the continuous streaming of underwater vents. these release fast amounts of heat and they have to also play apart in Ocean temperatures so I wonder if there’s a way to integrate this information as the sea temperatures also affect the weather conditions and weather systems. 

 

 Just an idea. 

[Purga]

GFS 06z not an entirely satisfactory run although somewhat better than the dreadful 00z & at least hinig at a Scandi High

 

[Geordiesnow]

The net weather model thread when a model(especially the GFS) is showing a 'poor' run.

"GFS is clueless" "GFS is a joke" "GFS is a cannon fodder model".

Always the same, I will say I think the cold reaching the whole of the UK is looking sketchy now, its what I said yesterday that there's still a chance the northerly could be quite tame. I think we got to accept it's very unlikely we are going too see a very strong Arctic blast and the trend of blocking receding is a concern. 

Still all runs do show some cold air making it way southwards from the 15th which is what has been consistent with but the uncertainty how cold and how far south that cold gets remains. Hoping for a bit more positive 12Z runs but would not surprise me if it goes the other way either. 

[IDO]

The Pacific Heights are changing the pattern from D8, with the axis of cold moving from N-S to E-W over the pole, so guess who is in for a cold spell on the 06z, D8-12:

 

That is clearly something that could easily change.

[GSP]

What has been startling is the loss of oomph from the cold from the north.

It did seem nailed on there would be an artic sweep well through the country, now at best we are relying on developments to the south to dictate what happens.

[Battleground Snow]

Arpege with the solid block into Greenland and consistent with it's previous run

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The net weather model thread when a model(especially the GFS) is showing a 'poor' run.

"GFS is clueless" "GFS is a joke" "GFS is a cannon fodder model".

Always the same, I will say I think the cold reaching the whole of the UK is looking sketchy now, its what I said yesterday that there's still a chance the northerly could be quite tame. I think we got to accept it's very unlikely we are going too see a very strong Arctic blast and the trend of blocking receding is a concern. 

Still all runs do show some cold air making it way southwards from the 15th which is what has been consistent with but the uncertainty how cold and how far south that cold gets remains. Hoping for a bit more positive 12Z runs but would not surprise me if it goes the other way either. 

At day 7 the UKMO and ECM have this - granted the cold 850s aren’t sinking into Spain but it’s a strong signal - the GFS Op has been an outlier on numerous occasions. The METO are saying it could be a cold few weeks - I don’t think saying the GFS Op is clueless is far from the truth at all. 
 

Granted - we need upgrades on the 12zs and can’t afford the signal to keep weakening for a more lengthy cold outbreak. 

Edited January 9 by Ali1977

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Arpege with the solid block into Greenland and consistent with it's previous run

But, it’s after that where it all goes wrong. 

[Weathizard]

Yikes, been busy for a day or so and come back to extremely disappointing output, for my location anyway, the HLB is no more… looks like there is signs in the longer range of the vortex reforming over Canada as well, feels like a missed chance for a proper cold spell, albeit there could be some decent snow events for some before a quick melt.

[James Maidstone]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The op is clearly wrong - just await the ENS to come out

The OP is not "wrong" it is a model based on data inputs , therefore it isn't wrong, it just shows a different outcome to what you are hoping for expecting and also differs from other model runs

Edited January 9 by James Maidstone

[Ali1977]

Just now, James Maidstone said:

The OP is not "wrong" it is a model based on data inputs and computer power, therefore it isn't wrong, it just shows a different outcome to what you are hoping for expecting and also differs from other model runs

If it’s the UKMO and ECM vs the GFS - and the GFS is the worst (for coldies) then people should be confident that it hasn’t got the modelling quite right - we shall see though

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

But, it’s after that where it all goes wrong. 

Yes because the orientation is poor on the gfs early on, arpege would lead on to what the ecm and ukmo are showing by 144

[Ice Day]

Unfortunately, the GFS control is going the same way as the op at day 6

The mean is also indicating a strengthening signal for the same compared to the 0z (although the difference is only slight).

 

That's enough for me now, let's hope the GFS is being useless. 

[Johnp]

Seems to be a lot of agreement in the GEFS for the Op sadly. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

The Pacific Heights are changing the pattern from D8, with the axis of cold moving from N-S to E-W over the pole, so guess who is in for a cold spell on the 06z, D8-12:

 

That is clearly something that could easily change.

IDO..

 I think you have hit the nail on the head with that jpg.

Going back to  the weekend when the ECMWF was having a wobble I produced  post which showed that it was the Pacific grossly inflated and rounded high that had thrown a spanner in its works. It caused all the Vortex to move back from Siberia to Greenland for a few runs. I put it down to strat warming.

The GFS now seems to have come across the same requirement  - with exactly the same results.

The question is - what is causing the models to think that the Aleutian high is going to happen?

Everything seems to follow on from that movement.. To fit it in,     everything else  moves around. 

It would appear that it does not know how to fit it in as it 'jumbles' from run to run. 

The net result appears to be chaos. Could it be that it too is picking up on the current strat warming? and that is what is causing the model chaos.

I am convinced that this is what is throwing the model.

MIA

 

MIA.

Edited January 9 by Midlands Ice Age

[sorepaw1]

If some of the recent runs are modelling low pressure systems from the west , the rain is certainly not welcome in the worst affected flooded areas, and will not help the 100+ Flood warnings in force.

[MidnightSnow]

If the ECM / UKMO / Met Office were all looking poor, but the GFS was showing nirvana, many on here would happily dismiss the GFS. So why wont you do the same when it's the other way around?

[WolfeEire]

The most significant change in the GFS mean that I have spotted is the squeezing of the Greenland block and the PV spill of colder airmass into North America. The latter usually creates a westerly -NAO, hence why that colder push from the north into Ireland/UK is less impactful and longlasting. It is in keeping somewhat with the UKMO's idea of a battleground scenario for UK/Ireland.

The same pattern is not as obvious in the UKMO and ECM until later next week while the GFS sets up such a scenario from early doors. Just an observation rather than a forecast. Forgive my rudimentary arrows.

 

Edited January 9 by WolfeEire

[Notty]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

At day 7 the UKMO and ECM have this - granted the cold 850s aren’t sinking into Spain but it’s a strong signal - the GFS Op has been an outlier on numerous occasions. The METO are saying it could be a cold few weeks - I don’t think saying the GFS Op is clueless is far from the truth at all. 
 

Granted - we need upgrades on the 12zs and can’t afford the signal to keep weakening for a more lengthy cold outbreak. 

Looks fantastic to me

[Andy Bown]

Which cold are people looking for to reach the UK!? 
 

It’s cold now! 
 

Always hunting for narnia! 

[Hammy79]

Sorry if this is not the right place to ask but does anyone know if there’s access to GEFS ensemble archives? I’m Interested to see how they behaved at same sort of timescales with a similar pattern.

TIA

[IDO]

No beating around the bush; if the 06z verifies, this period of model watching will shoot into my top 10 of all-time model fails. From my IMBY POV, the GFS run is poor from start to finish and a waste of 16 days of prime-time winter. Clearly, the feedback GFS is receiving has trended the whole model to move away from what looked nailed on as recently as yesterday. We can only hope it is fundamentally wrong.

The D8-14 washout from GFS 06z:

 

[NewEra21]

Hopefully the GFS is very wrong, but I do feel it’s latched onto things before ECM this winter, always feel like ECM is a step or two behind and always playing catchup.

[nick sussex]

So a better looking low to the sw . Flatter and not tracking ne  so that’s good then the GFS decided to go on a mystery tour . 

Lets take that and hope the mice are removed from the GFS super computer tonight ! 

Edited January 9 by nick sussex