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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

ICON at T90 hrs is an upgrade on its 06 hrs run . Better profile to the ne .

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

ICON at T90 hrs is an upgrade on its 06 hrs run . Better profile to the ne .

Much better on the German..early in 🤘

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Two things from that 

a) looks like zonal is 60% + from w/c 22nd and yet the 30 dayer today doesn’t read that way 

b) someone needs to explain to them that the eps and op are all at the same resolution

On point b) I’m pretty sure he, and the former chief forecaster know this? 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Very nice.. much sharper Synoptics.. helping the alignment of both flow.. And blocking 👍@ the German mod..

996B931D-8715-4D88-8410-5F43844DA189.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excellent ECM 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs . An upgrade on the earlier 00hrs run .

This might seem a very small change but this will make a difference down the line .

ECM 06 hrs run to T144 hrs.

IMG_0722.thumb.PNG.cd4401a85f335dd89d3ffea7edf72d71.PNG

 

ECM 00 hrs run to T150 hrs .

IMG_0723.thumb.PNG.8305d927453fa593388f9218388386c1.PNG

 

What we want is a straight flow from the north ne  , the bulge you see on the GFS is a sign that the blocking is going to start edging west and orientating in an unfavourable  manner .

GFS 06 hrs run  to T150 hrs .

IMG_0724.thumb.PNG.8807c62f9eb94cd1b55b6c40cd332f4d.PNG

 

Really well explained Nick. The Icon at 108 is showing this improvement vs it's 6z run

 image.thumb.png.18e9b6e96ff17f4b9fbabe4dc8c40494.png image.thumb.png.6288e90af1667ea041a0958df4145d8d.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

On point b) I’m pretty sure he, and the former chief forecaster know this? 

He specifically said that the ensembles are at a lower resolution and the chief forecaster didn’t correct him. now if we were doing that job we wouldn’t say it because we’d know it isn’t true 

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

not much of a deep dive after this weekend, not a scooby really

Sounded pretty confident to me re next week's pattern. Obviously can't nail down where in the UK is going to get hit by significant snow. That's unrealistic at this range

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

WOW, huge upgrade on the icon inbound 

IMG_2566.png

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
6 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

not much of a deep dive after this weekend, not a scooby really

To be fair, there's is no way in hell that they will have any clear idea on where could see disruptive snowfall at this range, if it indeed happens at all. Except to say there is the potential somewhere across the UK.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted (edited)

God bless the ICON at T120 hrs  ! 

Just the start we wanted to see to the evening outputs.

I’m feeling rather festive ! :santa-emoji:

Edited by nick sussex
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

The Icon at 135 is so much better.  An upgrade in the reliable at last!

image.thumb.png.b5929fd1cda8b925ecfd69d8296767c5.png image.thumb.png.8b097bdb6cf8c091807cdd7a3946d08b.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Clean as a whistle this run

ICON

12z v's 00z

iconnh-0-132.thumb.png.b2349aa54aed81de3bb5a29609282758.pngiconnh-0-138.thumb.png.4cfc9c654cda5cde24522397676ecef5.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

God bless the ICON at T120 hrs  ! 

Just the start we wanted to see it the evening outputs . :santa-emoji:

Looking forward to seeing the gfs backtrack in 30 mins, it probably will do it's step by step adjustment though 

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Malarky Aficionado

Malarky

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
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Posted
Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

Clean as a whistle this run

ICON

12z v's 00z

iconnh-0-132.thumb.png.b2349aa54aed81de3bb5a29609282758.pngiconnh-0-138.thumb.png.4cfc9c654cda5cde24522397676ecef5.png

No prizes for guessing the date on that chart!

@Scott Ingham take a bow, son.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted

Belter!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
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Posted (edited)

No bulge.👍 @nick sussex I’m adding bulge to my output dictionary along with Shuffling high👌 stonker ripper and Crocker.😄

IMG_0933.png

IMG_0934.png

IMG_0935.png

Edited by That ECM
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

144 - that'll do for me.  If we could get cross-model agreement on this then it's game on!

image.thumb.png.fec40a276934b767dbbdeeb8c189e038.png image.thumb.png.77c7c550519d42d53287a914c283806f.png

 

Edited by Ice Day
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

No bulge.👍 @nick sussex 

IMG_0933.png

yes! we are hoping to avoid bulges in the latest installment of Winter 23/24 on Netweather  - no giggling at the back! 😉

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

No bulge.👍 @nick sussex 

IMG_0933.png

If we could get that high pressure a bit further north and east we would have a screaming north easterly. Don't think it will happen but we can wish can't we?

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

ICON at T90 hrs is an upgrade on its 06 hrs run . Better profile to the ne .

Yep. Also, the trend of today's latest model offerings is a 'straightening' of the northerly in the 5 to 6 day timeframe. 

iconnh-0-138.png

gensnh-0-1-144 (4).png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

Cold, snow chances increasing and no quick return to mild - good start to the 12z 👌

IMG_2567.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)

The difference is huge here,...for the better,...great start to the 12z💪

iconnh-0-171.thumb.png.73820a78505623f61c122843ae5fa4e7.pngiconnh-0-177.thumb.png.a831b2847c8f8287b0ca9d9c8bc198af.png

Edited by Allseasons-Si
typo/wrong chart
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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
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Posted

Evening all;Big upgrade from met office extended my suggestion is you read this then take in the 12z charts before coming to any conclusion.Exciting times ahead I feel,I think I will wait to comment any further after the 12z ECM.

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

If we could get that high pressure a bit further north and east we would have a screaming north easterly. Don't think it will happen but we can wish can't we?

Think if anything it's going more into a bitter Norwester, which for some is better than any northeasterly 🫡🙂

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