Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[The Northern Ramper]

4 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

Beautiful

Oh the absolute dream

The north jackpot run, on a Friday too

[Cloud 10]

Quite an extreme temperature contrast on the day 10  from ECM,the sort of contrasts you would normally see in spring.

 

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Because the snow was light!

It hammered down at times here tbf but just wouldn't settle

[winterof79]

36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's nerve wrecking fir this old coldie

Stop dissecting every run bud you'll do yourself a mischief 

[Ali1977]

At 240 it could come south again - I tell you what next week could be the best week for nationwide snow since 2010 at least - which I missed !! Pub run please come back tonight ️

[LRD]

1 minute ago, The Northern Ramper said:

The north jackpot run, on a Friday too

If that ECM run comes off at Day 10 (which it won't) you won't need snow shovels. The rain will wash the snow away by Day 11!

But the cold might be back again shortly after

[booferking]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

Quite an extreme temperature contrast on the day 10  from ECM,the sort of contrasts you would normally see in spring.

 

The boundary precipitation would be very heavy some lucky places would get buried  

[Rob 79812010]

12 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Snow shovels ready for us North West folk 

If its coming from South West, may be good for you guys but for Manc it'll be a non starter. Classic snow shadow this one

[Chesil View]

Nice to look at but far too far out to put any accuracy on where the snow line will be at this stage. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Get past T144 then this will become clearer. 

Not sure the orientation of the low is right here with the block to the nw it would angle it more nw/se and disrupt into the channel leaving us all cold but it’s way out to be worrying about specifics. Nice run though and plenty of snow opportunities you’d say in the earlier periods upto 168.

[Harveyslugger]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

It hammered down at times here tbf but just wouldn't settle

Ground is very wet which makes the ground warmer. And we haven't had this cold long enough to sufficiently cool the ground down enough maybe.im not expert.just a guess

[LRD]

MOGREPS for London. Good clustering below -5. Some stubborn warm members but they're becoming isolated

[Chasbrown]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

If that ECM run comes off at Day 10 (which it won't) you won't need snow shovels. The rain will wash the snow away by Day 11!

But the cold might be back again shortly after

As long as Newhey, Lancashire gets rain I'll be very happy!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

If that ECM run comes off at Day 10 (which it won't) you won't need snow shovels. The rain will wash the snow away by Day 11!

But the cold might be back again shortly after

The cold will whip around the low all gold north west

If only this was in reliable  

[Metwatch]

I'm not the best in making weather graphics, but I thought i'd do a quick sketch of the possible scenarios into next week as I am seeing quite a few elsewhere on the forum getting confused reading through this thread.

Scenario 1 and 2 at the moment both look possible, & which both could produce significant snow either further south, or mainly in the north. Scenario 3 I think is less likely as quite a few det runs show lows to push into the cold air in situ over the country early next week, similarly with various ensembles. Also possible with scenario 1 is that there would be a snow to rain event and mild comes in quickly after.

However with Scenario 2 that I can see as being possible, but not as likely. This will all probably change by Thursday / Friday as we get closer to the key period next week. I hope anyone less informed gets a better understanding of what could happen from this!

Edited January 9 by Metwatch

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

If its coming from South West, may be good for you guys but for Manc it'll be a non starter. Classic snow shadow this one

I’m only 14  miles North west of Manchester..  this set up in the 70s + 80s was magic for the North West 

[winterof79]

21 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Wtf is going on

Going GEM route but better

[Matt Jones]

All the focus on getting the cold 850's from the north and we totally underestimated the warm plume coming up from Spain at 240hrs on the ECM! Seriously I would imagine many that have suffered flooding will not be too happy with the trend of more LP systems, a settled proper freeze which seemed more likely a few days ago would have been much better.

[Richard Fisher]

17 minutes ago, Derecho said:

How is this? 

Is this feature moving North or South?

[winterof79]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Bank 

Just wet myself

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Richard Fisher said:

Is this feature moving North or South?

North 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, CoventryWeather said:

Great ECM, where is the warmth the GFS wants? 

No changes. Stop the stressing. 

I have to say I don't think the ECM is that far from what the GFS is showing(and the same vice versa). It's going to be a minor tweek here and there and the outlook could look totally different. The cold set up is the favourite as that has got the most support but a tweek here and there and we could be looking at something different.

Even the GFS does goes cold but it gets rid of the cold quite quickly. I'm not doubting the northerly flow happening but what happens after that is uncertain. Questions still remains just how far south that cold air gets before the northerly topples and any attack from the SW. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Richard Fisher said:

Is this feature moving North or South?

North - 6-9 hours of snow for many and then rain will wash it away for most.

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

All the focus on getting the cold 850's from the north and we totally underestimated the warm plume coming up from Spain at 240hrs on the ECM! Seriously I would imagine many that have suffered flooding will not be too happy with the trend of more LP systems, a settled proper freeze which seemed more likely a few days ago would have been much better.

Disagree, would rather take our chances with undercutting lows for major snow for an interesting event

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

North - 6-9 hours of snow for many and then rain will wash it away for most.

But like you said highly unlikely to play out like that,personally would prefer it to miss the UK all together and for us all to stay in the cold air.