#Storm Henk

[Harveyslugger]

arome and uk for Tomorrow!no mention no warnings so far.strange

Edited January 3 by Jo Farrow
dated

[matty40s]

You probably need to email the Metoffice so the juniors can contact someone in charge at home.

[Shaunado]

Looks like they have issued warnings  

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

 

[matty40s]

27 minutes ago, Shaunado said:

Looks like they have issued warnings  

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

 

At 11am , yes.

[Buzz]

Given what xcweather.co.uk are showing for gusts at around midday onwards (first for southern Wales and then England in the afternoon (60 to 70mph)) I'm surprised that there are no amber warnings (note that xcweather get their data from the GFS).

I guess the met office are still uncertain about the track - if it goes much further south then only the southernmost counties of England and the channel will be affected.

Edited January 1 by Buzz

[sunnijim]

Has been a rapidly developing scenario this one, coming a little out of the blue.

A small feature crossing England that wasn't really a feature yesterday on the fax charts.

We saw a shallow feature that was filling as it tracked East.

The updated fax charts this morning show a clear LP centre over Central England that continues to deepen from 977mb to 974 as it Exits via the Wash.

Some models produce some real havoc with wind speeds, and although the met office themselves have jumped on board a little with their warnings this morning, they are not buying some of the more extreme solutions...yet.

This evenings runs will be pivotal imo to see what might play out and if we start the year with a named storm.

My interest has been piqued on this system as historically these small features can really produce local extremes, especially those that continue to deepen as they cross and exit the UK.

[Harveyslugger]

Latest arome and arpege have massively downgraded the winds for Tomorrow.could it upgrade again I'm not sure. the gfs is the most extreme solution at the moment which is unusual because it is normally ukv or icon that shows strongest winds

[Buzz]

Let's hope that arome and arpege's massive wind downgrades are correct then.

[sunnijim]

18 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Latest arome and arpege have massively downgraded the winds for Tomorrow.could it upgrade again I'm not sure. the gfs is the most extreme solution at the moment which is unusual because it is normally ukv or icon that shows strongest winds

What solutions in terms of high gusts were those two models showing?

I would imagine the met office are taking a Conservative attitude due to the continued divergence but an overall trend with all models for 'somthing' to occur windwise.

With a mass return to work tomorrow for those in England and Wales the concern is a set of 12z runs this evening that up the anti or perhaps worse still continue to show scenarios ranging from a breeze to hurricane strength.

 

[Harveyslugger]

13 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

What solutions in terms of high gusts were those two models showing?

I would imagine the met office are taking a Conservative attitude due to the continued divergence but an overall trend with all models for 'somthing' to occur windwise.

With a mass return to work tomorrow for those in England and Wales the concern is a set of 12z runs this evening that up the anti or perhaps worse still continue to show scenarios ranging from a breeze to hurricane strength.

 

Both arpege and arome were showing gusts of 80-90mph for west wales and 70mph+inland.that would be severe

[Josh Rubio]

What the Met Office are saying at this moment in time:

Quote

Very windy conditions are likely to quickly develop over southwest England and southern Wales on Tuesday morning and then spread eastwards across southern and some central parts of England. In coastal areas winds are likely to gust towards 60 mph at times, with a lower likelihood of 70 mph gusts. Inland gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely but with a smaller chance of 55 to 60 mph gusts, although the extent of such gusts carries low confidence at present. This windy weather will be accompanied by heavy rain in places, covered by a separate warning. Winds will start to ease from the west during the afternoon and evening.

 

[sunnijim]

16 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Both arpege and arome were showing gusts of 80-90mph for west wales and 70mph+inland.that would be severe

Looks like they both viewed a rapid deepening on approach to Wales then.

The more agreesive deepening may end up an outlier, but the lesser solution on the Met office warning of 70mph gusts is the one GFS has gone with on several runs now.

I would imagine there are a few ensemble members at the very least on in house met office models that may agree with that.

A more rapid deepening as it tears East across England.

The more likely at the moment is the modest deepening as it crosses causing 60mph gusts with exposure.

As I said earlier, little systems like this need careful watching for localised severe impacts.

[baddie]

Im sick of rain and storms, give us dry weather for once

[DanN]

High resolution (3km) GFS-WRF model run has the following for tomorrow afternoon, low deepens to 967mb as it moves Eastwards 

 

[Harveyslugger]

15 minutes ago, DanN said:

High resolution (3km) GFS-WRF model run has the following for tomorrow afternoon, low deepens to 967mb as it moves Eastwards 

 

Wow that's quite bad.ukv and icon on there own to be honest 

[DanN]

5 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Wow that's quite bad.ukv and icon on there own to be honest 

If GFS is wrong, then this WRF will also be wrong  

[Harveyslugger]

Latest arpege has the low a little more south but 70 mph gusts inland.the models really don't have a clue on this and it's less than 24hours away.

[The PIT]

A case of wait and see how it develops. Will it be storm Henk??

A lot of spread if you look at any of the models.

Edited January 1 by The PIT

[DanN]

Not much difference on the 12z GFS-WRF with respect to wind gusts and depth of the low.

  

 

 

[sunnijim]

No changes in wording to the current yellow warning and no named storm.

I am reasonably certain that 'some' places will see their windiest spell this winter tomorrow, but it will be localised in that respect so may not meet the criteria for a name...?

[Mapantz]

Personally, I think the strongest winds will be reserved for the Channel Islands and France.

[Metwatch]

I know there is quite a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, but I don't think i've ever gotten a wind warning where the forecast from the Met Office model show 25mph gusts here until today.

Edit: Yes I look at all available models @Kasim Awan as always, to me it would just be interesting to see how they all verify.

Edited January 1 by Metwatch

[Harveyslugger]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I know there is quite a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, but I don't think i've ever gotten a wind warning where the forecast from the Met Office model show 25mph gusts here until today.

Ukmo is either gonna be a huge fail or a massive success 

[Harveyslugger]

Latest arpege.all I can say is oh no.severe winds!

[Kasim Awan]

14 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I know there is quite a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, but I don't think i've ever gotten a wind warning where the forecast from the Met Office model show 25mph gusts here until today.

The UKV is horrible at small troughs. Move away from it. An arpege / arome blend is better. Tomorrow is looking likely now.