#Storm Henk

[Harveyslugger]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The UKV is horrible at small troughs. Move away from it. An arpege / arome blend is better. Tomorrow is looking likely now.

Ecm and icon hardly showing it too.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Harveyslugger said:

Ecm and icon hardly showing it too.

It is on the AROME/ARPEGE/GFS. These have FAR better wind data.

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is on the AROME/ARPEGE

I've seen both of those models fail miserably  on many occasions, so they aren't much better.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I've seen both of those models fail miserably  on many occasions, so they aren't much better.

Less so than the UKV. I think this storm is happening.

[Mcconnor8]

Latest Arome looks bad for Wales in particular and the rest of the South throughout Tuesday afternoon/evening.

[Polar Maritime]

I've found near time very good on the Net-wx sr model.

 

Edited January 1, 2024 by Polar Maritime

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

I've found near time very good on the Net-wx sr model.

 

Yes Wrf models better 6040 shot this.

[Scuba steve]

Tidal surge up the Severn estuary not sure of tide times but it one of the largest on earth 

[sunnijim]

Questions will be asked this evening if there is no name for this one imo

Gusts around the capital at 60mph during the rush hour later.

Coasts 70mph +

[The Tall Weatherman]

Most models seem to be picking it up now, the Arome, Arpege, UKV, ECM, GFS and many more have it. The wind gust strength will still be very strong still across the area with winds likely inland breaking 60/65mph. The area it affects seems to have turned way further south which would be touching London potentially during rush hour. Although there are models like the Arome and Arpege that move it a bit further north. It’s all about radar watching soon.

[MAF]

Doh! I left my wheelie bin out this morning... 

Met Office giving an average of 35MPH gusts over next 12 hours for SE London. Given the amount of high rise buildings in London and the tunnelling effect they create i imagine the city will be quite blowy. 

[Frosty hollows]

Just been upgraded to Amber for wind here- I can't remember when we last had an amber warning. Looks like the wind event is concentrated in a fairly small area

[sunnijim]

Can someone edit this title.

#Storm Henk named.

A late naming but calling for 80mph gusts.

No blame here, developments to firm up on this at the 11th hour with models only just getting on board in unison this morning.

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[matty40s]

That is looking rather sting-jet ish...

[sunnijim]

Storm Henk named by Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Storm Henk will bring a spell of very strong winds to parts of the UK leading to potential disruption to travel and infrastructure.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Shades of 2nd January 1976?

[Harveyslugger]

Made a new forum as I don't know how to rename the other one(I'm new to this) anyway continue the discussion in here.thankyou:)

[The Tall Weatherman]

The Latest 06z Arpege is looking very bad in terms of wind. Rush hour will be an absolute nightmare.

[matty40s]

You can see the jetstream path, and the small indent which is deepening rapidly on Nullschool, also suggesting stingjet possibilities..

 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Shades of 2nd January 1976?

Probably not Different Synoptics!

1 hour ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Shades of 2nd January 1976?

 

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Probably not Different Synoptics!

Remember the wind storm well , even though I was barely seven!

[ANYWEATHER]

Rainfall is going be the major concern for flooding. Tomorrow will be the day of the floods. Rain already falling over flooded areas at the moment, so some dire consequences for some later today and into tomorrow/Thursday. Wind of concern too , but in a smaller area , I think the wind forecast is not a done deal yet , but could well prove problematic later , short and potent spell of wind for some but in the most populous places…..

[CLH]

The 'late' naming of this one is a bit of a concern. Suggests it is a bit worse than initially thought. Amber for my region. 

[Frosty hollows]

32 minutes ago, matty40s said:

You can see the jetstream path, and the small indent which is deepening rapidly on Nullschool, also suggesting stingjet possibilities..

 

It would explain why the forecast wind speeds shoot up very rapidly for a short while

[Snowshine]

Still a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding maximum gusts this afternoon and whereabouts will be affected.

Edited January 2, 2024 by Snowshine

[Cymro]

Compared to last year's total of 4 named storms we're already on 8 named storms this season on par with 2017/18 and 2018/19 with plenty of winter left for more!

An exceptionally stormy period so far!