Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

@WYorksWeather it "shouldn't" be now, which just shows how grim this garbage is. Sunset here is post-4.30pm now though might be earlier further north and east.

[Summer8906]

@knocker Literally almost the whole of Europe getting extreme conditions it seems, even those places which are normally reliably cold at this time of year. Nearest cold place is Turkey.

Edited January 23 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

@Summer8906 It's been an extremely odd day here, frankly. Not often in January I wake up to a fairly cold start on my way to work, go out for lunch and it's still fairly cold, then come home in the evening and there's a strong but mild wind blowing. Being out in it feels more like an October storm than a January one.

[LetItSnow!]

As perverse as it may sound, I almost wish the cold spell in mid-January hadn't taken place. December was ridiculously mild, the final ten days of January will be and there are tentative signs of a ridiculously mild (even warm) opening to February. Without that cold spell we could have been staring down the barrel of an extremely warm winter. Not that we won't be giving a good shot. Rough calculations show that if January comes around the mid 5s then we only need February to have a C.E.T. in the low 6s to score a top-ten warm winter. Upper 6s, low 7s would take us into about the top five and equalling the old record of February 1779 (7.9) would equal 2015/2016. With some output at the moment, I really would not be shocked to fail to see anything appreciably cold in February. There are supposed favoured telecommunications which in theory may make colder weather more likely in the second half but I'm struggling to buy it now. My hopes were raised but this alarming set up at the moment has got me a bit jaded. Gut feelings tell me we're probably more likely to see a record-warm February than even an average February - but I am not a genie and could very well be wrong.

Edited January 23 by LetItSnow!

[Summer8906]

@Metwatch 18.3 in early January in the early 70s? Obviously happened... but didn't think that would be physically possible. Like the south of England getting a max of 11C or so in July. The Januaries from 1971-75 were a pretty dire bunch though, by all accounts.

Edited January 23 by Summer8906

[Chasbrown]

@LetItSnow! The cold spell was sadly irrelevant without any snow. I don't want to apologise but I love the snow. It's very rare in our parts so to be near and yet so far from a good snow event is a bit of a choker. 

[Don]

@Summer8906 this has been the case for the last few winters. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

@Don Indeed. I am so tired of that old chestnut which has been cropping up almost every day on here over the last couple of months.

Back on topic, I have a feeling that at some point during Feb will provide us with another cold spell before winter is out. Winter does frequently arrive back with a vengeance after false springs. 

Edited January 23 by Weather Enthusiast91

[In Absence of True Seasons]

@Metwatch indeed, and my the reason why my username exists!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

@markyo I can't imagine you ever needing to have the heating on anyway. 

[raz.org.rain]

An old derelict pub "caught" fire here tonight, they're struggling to get it under control due to the high winds! Keeps blowing up like a blowtorch.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

@raz.org.rain It's certainly wild out there tonight. Even more so than Isha I think.

[LetItSnow!]

With this crazy mild outlook extending for at least the next week, if we do see unusually mild weather persist into February then I wouldn't be surprised to a very early spring. Apart from some frosts from approximately the 7th to the 20th it has been a continuation of autumn. Trees were yet to turn by mid-October in parts. Nature must be very confused. If that happens and we get the usual cold snap(s) in spring that will certainly play havoc with gardeners. I can see this being one of those years.

[RJBingham]

Two or three day cool blip in a week or so, might even get a touch of frost.

[JoeShmoe]

@RJBingham need an amber alert that will 

[Summer8906]

@Don which post were you replying to? ("this has been the case for the last few winters")

(Sorry, doesn't quote anymore, so it's unclear)

[DIS1970]

This next pattern of weather on the way may well be welded in place for the foreseeable.

[ChannelThunder]

@LetItSnow! it's been a fairly well balanced winter down here so far, but only when compared to the last few! Yes, there's been a lot of mild and wet, but plenty of crisp and cold days too, especially last week. We've already used the log burner more times than the whole of the last two winters.

If Feb ends up entirely mild, any trace of a balance will be gone though! 

[SunnyG]

BBC website calling this a chilly night. What have they been smoking?

[ANYWEATHER]

19 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

BBC website calling this a chilly night. What have they been smoking?

Probably what they normally smoke

[Stabilo19]

Loving the outlook. The milder, the better IMO!

And as we approach February with a strengthening sun and a warming world, the chances of long lasting, historic cold decreases in the South now. Here's to another 20°C day in Feb. 

[joggs]

Everything points mobile and mild at times in the reliable. Back in a few days lol. I'll give it to the end of Feb for snow then march for warmth. Disappointing considering the telecoms.

[StretfordEnd1996]

@Stabilo19 Yes without question - although I'd debate whether "a strengthening sun" actually makes things milder from a statistic/theoretical point of view.
It aids snow melt and certainly feels warmer on the skin no doubt, but it doesn't necessarily directly make things warmer as far as the forecast temps would be concerned. A Max of 0'c with no sun is exactly the same temperature of 0'C in the sun. (In regards to your other point, yes I agree a warming world does tend to make things warmer!  )

While I acknowledge some people don't particularly take affection to how the sun can melt snowfall much quicker than earlier in the season, I for one don't mind days like that though - 

February 2018 being an example. Wake up to 10-20cm of snowfall widely, and then have a cracking blue sky day with sunshine - its direct influence making it possible to sit outside the pub with a pint, as long as you have your big coat on. Yes, the snow would thin out in more exposed spots - but but the re-freeze overnight then sees huge icicles and with a bit of luck, a more deeper cold spell may see more snowfall ... dreaming a bit now


I suppose having a fall of snow in late February of like 2-5cm, with sunshine it'd mostly thin out and melt quite considerably but larger falls can stick around for a long while. 

Edited January 24 by StretfordEnd1996

[ChannelThunder]

@Stabilo19 I absolutely loved that 20C Feb day. It fell on my other half's birthday and we spent it walking on the cliffs near Bournemouth, hanging a nice cuppa etc at cafes. It was probably more like 16 or 17 as we were at the coast, but lovely all the same.

To caveat this, I probably shouldn't be celebrating it, as it's probably one of the best examples of a warming world due to climate change that we've had.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

@LetItSnow!  That does sound perverse, IMO!

The lack of snow was disappointing, yes...but if we hadn't had that cold spell, then what instead? Simply a continuation of what we'd been having the prior 4/5 weeks? Aka 24/7 mild, dark, dull, drizzling conditions? If it hadn't landed at all, then that's likely what would've happened lol. 

I know everyone differs, but personally, I very much enjoyed that solid week or more of properly wintry temps (which were well below average I might add), clear, sunny skies, and not a drop of rain! Very rare to see -6c in London. Was a very refreshing change.

Yeah, it could've and should've snowed across the country, but it was simply bad luck - the snow band landed just a tad too south of us. Nevertheless, better to have had that wintry spell, than to not, I think. If we'd have had another 7-10 days of solid drizzle/rain...our landscape really would not have faired well! Everything was flooding in places it shouldn't be flooding, and my garden was a literal bog.

Edited January 24 by In Absence of True Seasons