Moans, ramps and banter

[A Face like Thunder]

Gorgeous day here today and no sign of the Northerlies which are arriving for the weekend. No moans from me today! 

[raz.org.rain]

 Don as far as I know, we're due for a negative Atlantic Oscillation flip. Those can last for years and would lead to prolonged droughts and longer heatwaves in this part of the world.

[AnnyPl]

3 hours ago, danm said:

It has been changeable to a degree. Very mild over the last couple of days, 18c or so, with sunny spells. 

Don’t be surprised when March leaves you out in the cold

WWW.THETIMES.CO.UK

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Plus: the weather forecast where you are

 

A reminder how topsy turvy the weather can be here in March.

Don't relax ahead of time. But still, don’t be discouraged - summer is coming)
 

[B87]

 raz.org.rain If only. I think we will get a repeat of 1998 this summer. Can't think of anything worse.

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 I'm still very doubtful of a washout summer personally, I would expect a flip into something more like 1995.

[B87]

 raz.org.rain I hope so. I want the hottest, driest and sunniest August on record, with July not far behind.

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 you'd think with how absurdly long this current pattern has been (I believe it's already at a record duration) it can't realistically persist through summer too. The main drivers behind the persistence are under threat also, so it does feel like it's only a matter of time before we see a sudden change.

[Metwatch]

Decent day as the cold front cleared away a few hours ago. Bit of a breeze and a lowish humidity of 50% (lowest of the year so far) does make it feel a little nippy in the shade, but in the sunshine quite lovely. Looks like the rain is back early next week, so any benefit from the drier few days of recent will be undone once again.

The front looks quite neat on satellite, and ahead of it widely into the low 20s across central France, I certainly wouldn't mind some of that warmth right now!

[Don]

 raz.org.rain heatwaves wouldn’t be so bad if they were of the dry variety and not humid!

[raz.org.rain]

 Don yes it feels like our options so far are hot and dry or hot and wet. Given the absurd levels of global heat anomalies present, I can't imagine seeing the remainder of the year without crazy heat anomalies.

[danm]

 B87 we had the best weather over the last two days? 

[B87]

 danm Yes, but that's 2 days or so over the past 2 months. It should be the reverse.

[danm]

 B87 today is a cold front pushing south. It;s cleared now and the sun has come out. Bad luck with timing that it moved over southern England during daylight hours. 

As for the SE copping the "worst" of it, I think sometimes it's perception over reality. Yes, it's been monotonously dull over the last few months, but that's pretty much UK wide. 

Actual sunshine hours in December were similar across the UK, a little brighter over parts of the east coast:

The best of the sunshine in January across southern and eastern England:

The SE was at a similar rate to much of the country for Feb, except oddly the far NE of Scotland seemed to miss some of that and have it quite a bit brighter:

 

We don't have the full stats for March yet.

Edited March 22 by danm

[raz.org.rain]

Contrary to the whole "AMOC slowdown/collapse to trigger ice age" nonsense, this recently published paper provides an ominous message for the next few years in response to a growing cold blob anomaly...

"[Oltmanns] said warmth over Greenland in the summer of 2023 melted a lot of ice, sending more freshwater toward the North Atlantic. Depending on the exact path of the influx, the findings suggest that, in addition to the immediate impacts this year, it will also trigger a heatwave and drought in Northern Europe in a more delayed reaction in the next five years, she said."

[RJBingham]

Chilly is Wisconsin today 

 

[Summer8906]

 B87 I sincerely hope not! I suspect a 1998 type summer after the 9 months of near-constant dull and wet weather we're enduring would be more than many could take. Would also have a devastating effect on agriculture, I suspect - and if the following winter was also wet I hate to think what might happen, perhaps catastrophic flooding for low-lying areas of the southwest.

Do you think we'll get any dry spells at all this year? Thoughts on autumn?

Edited March 22 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 I think August and September will be the best months of the year.

Hopefully we will get at least a month without any rainfall in the summer.

Edited March 22 by B87

[Summer8906]

 In Absence of True Seasons Not actually so bad today, dry and cloudy and now sunny, thank heavens we don't get sunset at 4pm anymore.

It's more next week I'm absolutely dreading. Enough, I suspect, to put 2024 in the three wettest Marches since 1950, and one of the worst Easters of my lifetime by the looks of the models (comparable with such 'classics' as 2018 or 1983).

 B87 OK, so the 1998 comparison includes the August, that's something.

Any thoughts on April-July, will there be any half-decent (i.e. average) months in that lot?

Hoping we won't see 13 consecutive wet months before a possible decent August arrives!

Edited March 22 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 baddie 2005 was very much better than this one. Started cold then became warm, but was much drier with far more sunny days.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain We wouldn't be THAT lucky!!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Definitely September. Roll on September. Yes I am writing summer off now

Edited March 22 by *Stormforce~beka*

[baddie]

 Summer8906 Not even that. We will get our dry spell though, in November. That dry spell will bring in zero sunshine at all for three weeks. Before then, lets endure an April 2012, May 2021, June 2012, July 1988, August 1912, September 1994 and October 2000

[Summer8906]

 baddie So November 2021 rehash then? Sunny for one week then dull for three, if I remember right (though that sunny week was enough to produce average sunshine).

Followed by Dec 2021 again to top this miserable year off!

Oh well, perhaps 2025 will be the anti-2024....

Edited March 22 by Summer8906

[baddie]

 Summer8906 November 2021 was too bright and interesting for a weather gods liking. Something like a dry version of November 2015. And while we are at it, lets have a December 2015 to add more misery

Edited March 22 by baddie

[Don]

 *Stormforce~beka* I wouldn’t be so sure about that.  I personally don’t think it would make us lucky, but there’s nowt I can do about it!