Moans, ramps and banter

[B87]

I'd accept a repeat of April 1998 if it was followed up by May 2020, June 2023, July 2018, August 1995, September 2023, October 2011, November 2005, December 2016.

And then 2025 consisted of January 2003, February 2019, March 1995, April 2011, May 2020, June 2018, July 2006, August 2022, September 2018, October 1995...

Edited March 23 by B87

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 raz.org.rain Interesting.

I don't know the meteorological nuances behind it, but let's bide our time and keep fingers crossed. 

Lets remember that last Summer, the signals were "very strong" for a hot and dry July (including Met Office long range predictions), right up until well into June. Those signals and predictions couldn't have been further from what actually manifest that month, and beyond.

I think this current pattern we are in, behaves in unexpected ways at very short notice.

Edited March 23 by In Absence of True Seasons

[NEVES SCREAMER]

 raz.org.rain 1989 please. My favourite summer for how it started early and went on in to October.

[Derecho]

That's two EC runs in a row that have had a huge Greenland block to kick off April. We've not had a bad April here since 2016.

2017 was often good (though I was down south then).

2018 was more unsettled if I recall but very warm, especially around the London marathon.

2019 was great.

2020 was completely dry here I think and sunny throughout.

2021 saw a fine April, cold and wintry at the start but sunny and dry after that.

2022 had some snow showers at the start but rapidly improved and was yet again very dry.

2023 was decent in the end despite some unsettled weather earlier on. In the end it was quite dry here with plenty of decent days but no notable warmth. 

Could 2024 be my first poor April in 8 years?

[CryoraptorA303]

20 minutes ago, B87 said:

I hope we have the hottest summer on record, with zero measurable rainfall for months.

The chance of that is positively zero.

 B87 January is 2012, February is 2015, March is 2021 I think, April is probably 2016, May is 2019, June is 2013, July is 2018, August is 2022, September is maybe 2014, October no idea, 2017 maybe, November is 2020, and December is 2023.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 danm Not had that here!! Showers and cloud on and off all day long. You don't get clear blue skies here. Not seen a clear sky since September!

[B87]

 Derecho April 2023 was pretty poor down here. Dull, wet and never really warmed up at all. It took until 6th May to get to 20c, about a month later than the average first 20c.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Wade Had one very short hail shower here too when I was in the garden! I loved it!

[Derecho]

Just now, B87 said:

April 2023 was pretty poor down here. Dull, wet and never really warmed up at all. It took until 6th May to get to 20c, about a month later than the average first 20c.

Yup I remember the stats in the south were poor for sunshine and rain in the far south but we was ok up here thankfully!

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 Pretty good attempt. July 2012, 2015, 2017, 2016, 2019, 2013, 2018, 2022, 2014, 2021, 2020, 2023

 

[CoventryWeather]

I've noticed a fair few members mentioning similarities to 1998. Looking back at recent times, I think a year like that is not common, but certainly not out of the question. 

Recently there has been extremely wet periods followed by very dry periods.. I wonder if we are impacted by both the presence of the Azores High expanding into Europe whilst dealing with excessive SST in the Northeastern Atlantic, making for rather rapid swings in our weather patterns. Just a thought, I'm not an expert on our weather patterns globally. 

Also think from May onwards it will turn drier. Year of 2 halves? 

Edited March 23 by CoventryWeather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain I like cold weather and I like hot weather and I miss out both ends of the season. Just live in the eternal Autumn!  I don't like Autumn ...

[raz.org.rain]

9 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Also think from May onwards it will turn drier. Year of 2 halves? 

I'm getting the feeling that it could be. I can't imagine this absurd weather pattern will persist for much longer, it'd be Sod's Law if we end up with the extreme opposite for a year.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

My goodness I've walked into world war 4 here tonight! Geeze!

[Frigid]

 B87 July 2023 didn't hit 30C? Damn what an anomaly, when was the last time that happened b4 2023?

Edited March 23 by Frigid

[raz.org.rain]

 *Stormforce~beka* needless to say, I don't think anyone is too enthralled by the notion of this weather continuing through summer too.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

 *Stormforce~beka* Normal stuff Beka. I love everyone on here

[Bristawl Si]

Doesnt look great for next 10 days plus, does it?

I'm really hoping for a complete flip around mid-April, so that we have 5 months of dry, sunny and warm weather. Not much to ask for, is it?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Whose bumping April off now then? ...

[raz.org.rain]

Hints of a potential plume once this pattern shifts as we go into April so I guess that's good.

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Last thing we need in my opinion is going from one extreme to another. Going from endless rain to months without any would be a nuisance and overkill. And yes, two poor Julys are indeed possible. Four are actually, 1985-1988! But odds are probably that July even if poor may not be *as* poor. 
 

And to be honest, it does open the question of both personal preference and the normal climate. There have been many mixed Augusts this century but not many truly horrendous ones.
 

I hope the summer is extremely mild with little, hopefully no heat spikes at all, nice spells of high pressure but also unsettled spells as well. Watch it or I’ll do a rain dance! (Fun fact, did that in late 2013 when I was 12 when I learned about the culture and may have unleashed that winter the followed… you know who to blame. ). 

[B87]

 FrigidHeathrow didn't hit 30c in July in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011 either. July 2007 saw the lowest absolute max on record, with 24c.

 LetItSnow!We need a run of dry months to help dry out the ground though. Any more rain and it'll become a swamp. The soil shouldn't be damp in the summer! There were no bad Augusts in the 21st century until 2006 (2000, 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2005 were all pretty average, 2003 was good). Then 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2017, 2021 came along. At least since 2012, the bad Augusts have been mixed in with average or good ones. The 2006-2011 period only had 1 August that wasn't awful (2009).

Edited March 23 by B87

[Metwatch]

23 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

My goodness I've walked into world war 4 here tonight! Geeze!

It's always on a Friday or Saturday night, nearly always

[raz.org.rain]

10 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Last thing we need in my opinion is going from one extreme to another.

A part of me is beginning to worry that's the way we're heading. Spring will be another wet and chilly bust but at some point in late May it'll flip and we be thrown into an inferno record hot and dry summer. From one extreme to the other, a natural disaster effectively.

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Slightly damp soil in summer isn’t the end of the world, mud baths on the other hand… But as statistics make (at this point, to me) a washout summer unlikely (famous last words), even a mixed bag summer would see enough evaporation due to the sun drying things out. It’s different in large fields but many areas I’ve seen become dry with just a week of mostly dry weather. Dryer than average conditions would be of absolutely no issue after an unprecedented spell of wet weather, absolutely, but I wouldn’t want to swing to abnormally dry. Rapid swings of extremes tend to not be the greatest. 

We saw a good example of how quickly things can dry out after the rains of February 2020 were followed by spring drought and things were already, at least locally (I was in the countryside at the time not the city) things dried up by early April.