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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Tamara
Tamara

Bom dia e todos☺️ I make no apologies for yet again re-pasting this sequence originally posted just prior to New Year, because it has become an even more focused roadmap. Not just for the upcomin

Tamara
Tamara

References, as ever, crop up to x+y= responses to MJO phases in isolation. Again, to keep reiterating, tropical AND extra tropical wind-flow has to be assessed in respect of synoptic responses. There

MattH
MattH

Just a quick post but the reason for the quick transition to the westerly type is, in my opinion, linked to the recent weakening of the strat vortex and how, within the lower layers of the strat/top o

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, RainAllNight said:

I don't know what this means 🤪

image.thumb.png.f152c410a137dba0a1dae115b5a17651.png

Not great, pushes the cold back north, or rather, it did at T144.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

I don't know what this means 🤪

image.thumb.png.f152c410a137dba0a1dae115b5a17651.png

rain in south - Snow from Leciester to about Leeds if I was pushed.

image.thumb.png.2b65b6d034ae249d2a3eaf9dfbb275e0.png

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I don't know what this means 🤪

image.thumb.png.f152c410a137dba0a1dae115b5a17651.png

For us? Rain. 

Feel like testing the swear filter!

Edited by Drifter
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Rain All Night Accomplished

Rain All Night

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

This is great. We want an elongated low so the mild sector stays to the South instead of mixing the uppers readily!

I don't think the mild sector has stayed to the south 😕

image.thumb.png.acdb66b3743dde665a63df318fccbe7b.png

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Day 7 is an imby chart if I’ve ever seen one! Nail biting if your in the south!

It's a step in the wrong direction hopefully outlier in its suit.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

Horrible?

IMG_0005.png

that has to be this mornings - This evening the cold is pushed back north a little 

image.thumb.png.dcee0ae9469fa6f15d2637d7bf1794fe.png

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

I got a question for the more knowledgeable.are short waves from the north more like to track through the east side of the country or the west.Or is it the exact same chance 

Only my own experience of this rather than scientific. When short waves or polar lows are picked up on the models at short notice, they tend to be more west come the event. I.e initially shown to affect me in lancashire but then turn more into a Wales, West Midlands and south west event.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
Just now, RainAllNight said:

I don't think the mild sector has stayed to the south 😕

image.thumb.png.acdb66b3743dde665a63df318fccbe7b.png

Should though shunt away southward next frame.

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SussexSnow Explorer

SussexSnow

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
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Posted
Just now, Drifter said:

For us? Rain. 

Feel like testing the sweat filter!

Why? Are you a royal prince?

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted

ECM the worst for longevity I think as the block is collapsing by T+168 whereas other models have it remaining in some form.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Given an easterly flow, we won’t need to be that much below 0c at 850hpa for the precipitation to be snow. 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

It's a step in the wrong direction hopefully outlier in its suit.

We're not in the hunt anyway Boofer. Norn Iron looks mainly cold and dry with just the odd flurry.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

that has to be this mornings - This evening the cold is pushed back north a little 

image.thumb.png.dcee0ae9469fa6f15d2637d7bf1794fe.png

Yeah on phone wrong chart. Best I just watch with fat fingers.😩

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I don't know what this means 🤪

image.thumb.png.f152c410a137dba0a1dae115b5a17651.png

Doesn't matter. Won't look like that come the day.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

It's a step in the wrong direction hopefully outlier in its suit.

It’s going to test this forum next weeks cold 100 miles will make all the difference! Somewhere could have 2 or 3 heavy snow periods in a sweet spot!

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

Rain plenty of cold rain for south coast.

ECM0-168.gif

overview_20240110_12_162.jpg

overview_20240110_12_168.jpg

Oh, sorry, thought you were Metwatch for a minute then...🙃

The lovely thing about that setup is that the cold air will continue to push South as the front gets squeezed, so even the South Xoast may end up with something later overnight.

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saintkip Rising Star

saintkip

Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
Posted
Just now, MattStoke said:

Should though shunt away southward next frame.

Yep next frame snow shoukd be coming back south, all good 

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, SussexSnow said:

Why? Are you a royal prince?

🤣Seems they’ve even filtered the word swe*r! 

Edited by Drifter
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

It looks bloody great, not sure what the issue is 👌

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

Northern members: It's an amazing run

Southern members: Rubbish run

These types of posts aren't overly helpful and just add confusion. Broadscale patterns for now, wait until high resolution comes into range before worrying about snowfall placements/boundaries. I'm still of the opinion that the low wont even reach the UK, let alone bring snowfall or rain.

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