Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[SilverWolf]

2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah only Kent and North York Moors got anything significant out of December 2022. 

I had 8 inches of snow on 11th Dec 2022 - it didn’t melt for nearly a week. That felt a bit significant.. 

[NewEra21]

Let’s just get the northerly down on Sunday/Monday and then see what happens. The whole of next week looks cold and I’m sure there will be a surprise or two.

Once the cold is in, more often than not surprises pop up. I wouldn’t even look at the following weekend just yet!

[Mcconnor8]

Looks like the GFS OP run still has the low further North than the ensemble pack next week as it is at the high end of temps for the South, the mean 850s a good couple degrees lower on the 6z run compared to the 0z run as well so the South shifts continue.

Edited January 11 by Mcconnor8

[Spah1]

39 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What surprises me is the Met Office more or less went for the low pressure to be further North. Its almost certain now that won't happen 

Certain - 6 days away? 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Looks like the GFS OP run still has the low further North than the ensemble pack next week as it is at the high end of temps for the South.

Yup, another southwards shift on the GEFS mean too. 

Really surprised the Met gave a southerly tracking low a lower probability in yesterdays 10 day trend, it seemed like the fairly obvious "most likely" scenario to me.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Looks like the GFS OP run still has the low further North than the ensemble pack next week as it is at the high end of temps for the South.

Yes downgrade in the precip charts..but upgrade in the 850:s

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes downgrade in the precip charts..but upgrade in the 850:s

Greater pop up opportunities 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Greater pop up opportunities 

Hopefully snow showers from the North..if we can't get battleground scenario midweek

[Hammy79]

Ens @ 144 - much better uppers with -4 as far as south as Exeter compared to roughly Birmingham on the 0z. 

Yes the low placement that could of given a lot of us snow is trending south which im slight gutted by but it does allow colder air dig its heels in a bit more ready for the next Atlantic attack. 

Looking forward to this coming into view of the High Res Models which handle disturbances a lot better (granted if there are any) 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs op going off the rails again..on the 850's

[Weathizard]

This

 

to this in 5 days…

 

Ouch

 

 

[Yorkshirepudding]

54 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ahhh , it missed - still a better run though 

Surly this is better for everyone in keeping us locked in colder air, yes no battle ground snow as yet, but showers and troughs packing in from the north is better? as the further north the low is the risk of more milder air in the south. 
 

keep up the good work @Ali1977 love your ramps of enthusiasm in willing this cold spell in pal

Edited January 11 by Yorkshirepudding
Typo

[AltonMatthew]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This

 

to this in 5 days…

 

Ouch

 

 

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

[WinterOf47]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Certain - 6 days away? 

Agreed. At least the GFS is now on board with the cold till late next week, so that is pretty much set in stone with all models aligned. Like others have said, there will be opportunities for “regional scale events” to develop from as little as 48 hours out on the models. Anyone remember last weekend for instance? No one was expecting anything till Saturday even, and many in the South had a few cms on Sunday. Also, the low only needs to track 100 miles further north and the South will get 15 cms.

Edited January 11 by WinterOf47

[Battleground Snow]

Arpege and jma are consistent with the initial push of colder air deeper south on their 06z runs

[PiscesStar]

10 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Looks like the GFS OP run still has the low further North than the ensemble pack next week as it is at the high end of temps for the South, the mean 850s a good couple degrees lower on the 6z run compared to the 0z run as well so the South shifts continue.

Is that good for where we live 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon 6z looks more promising all be it only out to day 5..im scratching my head as to the direction of travel tbh. It appears the models continue to struggle here and I'm not sure any outcome today will set the tone for next week.

Just to mention I've just been tweeted by someone claiming he as a good friend at the met and they are gonna be calling milder air talking over later next week! So that would be a climbdown! Not sure of his credentials but the 3pm update could be telling.

Sorry chart attached is the gfs.

Edited January 11 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Andy-Lf]

Hi everyone - Just wanted to say I’m loving all the comments and insight this winter - always find myself coming back to this thread when there’s chances of cold and learning as much as I can! Keep it up!! 
I know it seems pretty slim  but any chance the uppers get cold enough for snow forming as low as the Channel Islands? 

[Penrith Snow]

I would rather cold, dry and long than cold, snowy and short. I never saw a single flake during the December 2022 cold spell but the run of su ny Ice days and -10c temperatures at night made up for it.

I still think features will pop up next week just as they did for the south in 2022, Southerners moan but they have enjoyed the best snow event since 2018 just 13 months ago.

Andy

[joggs]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This

 

to this in 5 days…

 

Ouch

 

 

Yes,you just know this spell will probably go out like this.

Saying that the experts and backgrounds sigs all mention southerly tracking jet and cold outlooks in general.

We'll see.

[winterof79]

GEFS slowly getting colder but its like pulling teeth with GFS

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Greater pop up opportunities 

Probably the coldest set yet..stays below -5

[MidnightSnow]

15 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Very disappointing those in the South and towards midlands are missing out on the battleground set up for mid-week next week.

dont get many chances for a big dumping and its heading in to France it seems now  

I still think there's enough time for the low to adjust north. If it's showing the same thing on Sunday, then yeah... the writing's probably on the wall. The people who talk about shower feature's popping up of nowhere are usually in favourable locations. Some of us only do well from frontal snow so I fully understand your disappointment.

With a half glass full perspective, locking in deep cold isn't a bad second option. Hopefully we get one or two more channel low's further down the line. One of these days it's gonna hit just right.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This

 

to this in 5 days…

 

Ouch

 

 

Lack of data

[That ECM]

I see no point in worrying about fi when T168 is this.