Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Drifter]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We need to start seeing improvements in FI soon - rest of Jan looks a complete write off.

Mustn't grumble we have a covering here ,first one since early Dec mind.

I haven’t had one since March!

Hopefully it’s being noticed that snow is more widespread than the models initially progged for northern areas (as is always the way)….

[Floatylight]

Did any of the models ever suggest this mornings system dropping to the s/e like this?

I have been following this cold snap for weeks and didn't once see it modelled to this outcome ....

I am surprised none of you have mentioned it?

so much talk of weds low pushing further north or south, and  has been modelled different every run. 

This one going across the middle of the country has really surprised me by the route its actually taking..

There's been snow in chelmsford. 

 

 

 

[Crackerjack]

8 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Did any of the models ever suggest this mornings system dropping to the s/e like this?

I have been following this cold snap for weeks and didn't once see it modelled to this outcome ....

I am surprised none of you have mentioned it?

so much talk of weds low pushing further north or south, and  has been modelled different every run. 

This one going across the middle of the country has really surprised me by the route its actually taking..

There's been snow in chelmsford. 

 

 

 

Yes you’re right nothing really showed this, as always happens in cold spells as some of the regulars have been saying snow suprises can and do crop up out of the blue I’m in the north of Scotland at the moment and it’s like ice station Zebra here (always was of course likely in an artic northerly) and I for one will make the most of it before I head home but I’m sure more suprises will crop up else where indeed a front looks like sinking south tonight too. Enjoy if you get snow where ever you are. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this morning show an increased signal towards something more blocked.  T192-T240:

Cluster 4 shows a ridge into Scandi, hints of that on clusters 1 and 3 too at T240.

T264:

The signal is maintained on clusters 1,3 and 5, although nothing yet resembling a true Scandi high.  In fact, cluster 5 shows retrogression to Greenland in the last frame - but it only has 3 members, still it is a start.  Clusters 2 and 4 show any ridge at T264 flattened by the zonal train.  The signal for improvement in far week 2 are getting stronger (from a low base) and it will be interesting to see how/if they develop.

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Did any of the models ever suggest this mornings system dropping to the s/e like this?

I have been following this cold snap for weeks and didn't once see it modelled to this outcome ....

I am surprised none of you have mentioned it?

so much talk of weds low pushing further north or south, and  has been modelled different every run. 

This one going across the middle of the country has really surprised me by the route its actually taking..

There's been snow in chelmsford. 

 

Ec op 12z showed something along these lines. Doesn’t look like it’s part of the main system which is due to head se on its intended path Isle of Arran in and n Humber out 

It showed the light snowfall through the Cheshire gap  in the early hours and extending into the e midlands before petering out away from a line n of stoke - derby - Lincoln as the shortwave system moves across during the day 

I would assume other higher res models picked this up aswell 

as for Chelmsford - that’s very isolated looking at the radar !

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Yes you’re right nothing really showed this, as always happens in cold spells as some of the regulars have been saying snow suprises can and do crop up out of the blue I’m in the north of Scotland at the moment and it’s like ice station Zebra here (always was of course likely in an artic northerly) and I for one will make the most of it before I head home but I’m sure more suprises will crop up else where indeed a front looks like sinking south tonight too. Enjoy if you get snow where ever you are. 

Not sure why anyone is saying it was not predicted, UK Met Fax has shown it for several days, forecasts also suggested it tracking east rather than its current south of east. The area predicted for snow has, as it often does , varied between central Scotland and north Midlands!

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Overlooking this mediocre cold ,my attention for the last couple of days to the weekends potential wind storm. Interesting that ecm didn't have it last night ,now it's picked upon it and followed the gfs which has been fairly consistent of its progress. Still ,a way off ,but one to monitor in the next few days.....

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure why anyone is saying it was not predicted, UK Met Fax has shown it for several days, forecasts also suggested it tracking east rather than its current south of east. The area predicted for snow has, as it often does , varied between central Scotland and north Midlands!

 

I think the confusion is over two areas John. The overnight Cheshire gap type precip extending into the e midlands which is ahead of the warm front but is likely connected to it as an extension se of the instability.  This area wasn’t shown on the fax chart as being likely to delivery anything and has caught some unaware as not everyone is looking at the light precip flickering in and out as each model run is produced.  As has been mentioned over the past week, small areas of unexpected precip will crop up. Unlikely to be of any real consequence but a dusting is nice to look at. (Especially if unexpected) 

[Floatylight]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op 12z showed something along these lines. Doesn’t look like it’s part of the main system which is due to head se on its intended path Isle of Arran in and n Humber out 

It showed the light snowfall through the Cheshire gap  in the early hours and extending into the e midlands before petering out away from a line n of stoke - derby - Lincoln as the shortwave system moves across during the day 

I would assume other higher res models picked this up aswell 

as for Chelmsford - that’s very isolated looking at the radar !

That was earlier this morning at about 6am precipitation was over colchester  chelmsford even Rochester on radar.

That's why I am looking to see where the rest is going  

[Daydream Boy]

9 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Indeed but the bottom wind graph aren’t even wind gusts so still will be stormy in the south 

It does say wind gusts and not mean winds otherwise the South West would be wiped off the map!! LOL 

[Ice Day]

ECM / GEM / GFS are all showing some type of pressure rise over the UK on day 10

  

Interesting consistency at that range, if nothing else!

Before then, however, we have a potentially damaging storm coming in for Sunday

 

According to the GFS, that's 80-90mph winds across a large swathe of the country.  These types of extreme windspeed do tend to downgrade, and let's hope they do!

[Captain Shortwave]

The trend is there for the Euro ridge to amplify somewhat during week 2, which should bring drier and more settled conditions to the south. At the moment there is the potential for mild or very mild conditions, however if winds do back more southerly or south easterly then we could see a bit of a chill set in again, especially at night as drier air would allow skies to clear. Still a long way off and of course the models may trend this high further north in the coming runs, which of course could lead to much more interest.

[Zero Visibility]

Morning all, had a nice covering overnight which is rare in my neck of the woods. Last real snowfall being December 2022! System now to the north moving east.

It is nice to see the models hinting of a way forward as we progress toward Feb, but looks like we may have to endure a stormy breakdown of the cold before hand.

Here's hoping February brings us a nice fall of the dice because I would like to see us all in with a shout before Winters out.

[Crackerjack]

22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure why anyone is saying it was not predicted, UK Met Fax has shown it for several days, forecasts also suggested it tracking east rather than its current south of east. The area predicted for snow has, as it often does , varied between central Scotland and north Midlands!

 

Yes John but it’s more reiterating the fact when a lot of people started bemoaning the fact the cold spell looked ‘mostly no snow for their backyards’ it’s always the case that our cold spells can and do spring up suprise snow in many places (the bands of showers that often can’t be forecast many hours ahead of time) and that’s why even where I live there is always hope

anyhow on to the next few days let’s see what happens before the milder weather pushes back in even up here in Inverness at the weekend. 

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

ECM / GEM / GFS are all showing some type of pressure rise over the UK on day 10

  

Interesting consistency at that range, if nothing else!

Before then, however, we have a potentially damaging storm coming in for Sunday

 

According to the GFS, that's 80-90mph winds across a large swathe of the country.  These types of extreme windspeed do tend to downgrade, and let's hope they do!

Been looking at that. The system is trending North aided by the jet. It is worth keeping an eye on but could end up skirting the North of Scotland.

[sebastiaan1973]

45 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters this morning show an increased signal towards something more blocked.  T192-T240:

Cluster 4 shows a ridge into Scandi, hints of that on clusters 1 and 3 too at T240.

T264:

The signal is maintained on clusters 1,3 and 5, although nothing yet resembling a true Scandi high.  In fact, cluster 5 shows retrogression to Greenland in the last frame - but it only has 3 members, still it is a start.  Clusters 2 and 4 show any ridge at T264 flattened by the zonal train.  The signal for improvement in far week 2 are getting stronger (from a low base) and it will be interesting to see how/if they develop.

I guess the support of a true Scandi high is quite low. Please see the windchart. NO/O/ZO = NE, E, SE are just a very little portion of the members. 

[Troubleatmill]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

We need to start seeing improvements in FI soon - rest of Jan looks a complete write off.

Mustn't grumble we have a covering here ,first one since early Dec mind.

Yes mate, although first lying snow since Dec 2010 for me incredibly.

A warm up is happening from the weekend and default winter temperate meh weather is going to set in for the rest of Jan. However following on from the 12z GEFS last night, this morning's ECM anomolies are also showing in the very far reaches where the next 'chase' is likely to come with a euro high perhaps tracking north to scandi.

Way to far out to get excited, but hopefully in the next few days we will start to see some decent scandi high charts appearing at the very end of the GFS runs & associated ensembles 

[AO-]

58 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters this morning show an increased signal towards something more blocked.  T192-T240:

Cluster 4 shows a ridge into Scandi, hints of that on clusters 1 and 3 too at T240.

T264:

The signal is maintained on clusters 1,3 and 5, although nothing yet resembling a true Scandi high.  In fact, cluster 5 shows retrogression to Greenland in the last frame - but it only has 3 members, still it is a start.  Clusters 2 and 4 show any ridge at T264 flattened by the zonal train.  The signal for improvement in far week 2 are getting stronger (from a low base) and it will be interesting to see how/if they develop.

Good Morning,

At this moment I can't see any members that are similar to members 4 and 24 of GFS. Those are quite nice. Perhaps the Chase from the 27th onwards is a cold one but a lot of improvement is needed in the EPS for here. 

Edited January 16 by AO-

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Ecm for Sunday's windstorm.120 mph gusts

ECM must be overplaying that! (I hope it is).

[Harveyslugger]

2 minutes ago, Premiere Neige said:

ECM must be overplaying that! (I hope it is).

It probably is.but I still expect 90-100 gusts somewhere 

[Fiona Robertson]

10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

ECM / GEM / GFS are all showing some type of pressure rise over the UK on day 10

  

Interesting consistency at that range, if nothing else!

Before then, however, we have a potentially damaging storm coming in for Sunday

 

According to the GFS, that's 80-90mph winds across a large swathe of the country.  These types of extreme windspeed do tend to downgrade, and let's hope they do!

Thanks for this heads-up, @Ice Day. This one has me worried. I recently had a tree partially come down on my stables building. It was the low branches at one side and the cracking noises of the trunk as I walked under it and into the tack room which alerted me and I ran for my life. It wasn't a named storm, it wasn't a forecast storm, it wasn't even forecast high winds, it was just an entire night of unexpected howling wind. I watch this forum, I try to watch the models and I had no idea that high winds were coming in that night. And that's why this one has me worried - it's been noticed. At least I now get the chance to wander around for a couple of days looking for anything that hasn't been nailed down with 6 inch nails (that includes the horses) and get the stables and haynets prepared for a few days of 24/7 stabling.

[bluearmy]

40 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

That was earlier this morning at about 6am precipitation was over colchester  chelmsford even Rochester on radar.

That's why I am looking to see where the rest is going  

was all related - petered out now.  The low is going  to track as expected 

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, Daydream Boy said:

It does say wind gusts and not mean winds otherwise the South West would be wiped off the map!! LOL 

Not the graph I posted above, I was replying to another poster who had posted another screenshot from a French weather model with wind speeds not wind gusts 

this is the screenshot they posted which isn’t gusts, it’s mean wind speed translated from French.

I posted the gfs gusts graph to show how severe it could be 

Edited January 16 by TwisterGirl81

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thanks for this heads-up, @Ice Day. This one has me worried. I recently had a tree partially come down on my stables building. It was the low branches at one side and the cracking noises of the trunk as I walked under it and into the tack room which alerted me and I ran for my life. It wasn't a named storm, it wasn't a forecast storm, it wasn't even forecast high winds, it was just an entire night of unexpected howling wind. I watch this forum, I try to watch the models and I had no idea that high winds were coming in that night. And that's why this one has me worried - it's been noticed. At least I now get the chance to wander around for a couple of days looking for anything that hasn't been nailed down with 6 inch nails (that includes the horses) and get the stables and haynets prepared for a few days of 24/7 stabling.

Crikey, I can understand why you're worried.  Yes, keep an eye on here, if it continues to show as currently modelled I'd have thought the Met Office will start issuing alerts, probably starting tomorrow or Thursday.

The 6z deepens the low a little to 945mb and takes it a little further north. Brutal for the coast of Ireland and the Western Isles.

The track and intensity of this system will continue to wobble over the next few days, but it's definitely something to consider if you're in the most affected areas.

[Josh Rubio]

Just something to take into consideration - when posting charts, can people please save the full size image first (usually just have to long hold on the image and press save) instead of taking a screenshot of the entire page, with the actual chart being really small and hard to see. 
 

Zooming in on this forum is a bit iffy and causes the page the glitch. Thanks.